Gordon Brown Looks To Be Making A Pre-Election Comeback

LONDON — It may not be over after all for Gordon Brown.

The beleaguered leader has been all but written off for more than two years – beset by an expenses scandal, war casualties and a cloud of discontent that seemed to hover wherever he trod. But opinion polls are tightening and some analysts claim that as Britain emerges tentatively from recession, Brown may have an unexpected shot against the opposition Conservative Party's telegenic, but untested David Cameron.

Boosted by a recovering economy and unexpected hesitancy from his chief political foe, polling data shows Brown making up ground on the once runaway opposition.

Analysts and political activists are raising the prospect of Britain's first hung Parliament in 26 years, or – if his unlikely turnaround can continue – Brown winning his governing Labour Party another five-year term in office.

While the Conservatives still lead Brown's governing Labour in opinion polls – an advantage they've held since January 2008 – the gap has been narrowing since the turn of the year.

In a poll published Tuesday, ComRes put Labour at 31 percent and the Conservatives at 38 percent, still 7 percentage points ahead, but weaker than the 9 percentage point margin it reported in December.

Of 13 polls in December, a total of nine gave the opposition a lead in double figures. However, the five most recent polls have all reported that the Conservatives' advantage has slipped into a single digit.

"There's no question that there's a tightening across the board, based on a number of polls, and the situation is inching toward a scenario where a hung Parliament is possible," said Tony Travers, a political scientist at the London School of Economics.

A British election last produced a hung Parliament, a scenario in which no party has an outright majority of House of Commons seats, in 1974. Like then, it's likely whichever party forms a minority government would call a second 2010 national election, to seek a majority.

Brown has been buoyed by economic data released last week which showed Britain's worst recession since World War II is officially over, and has seemingly bested Cameron in the debate over how to maintain the pace of recovery.

Polls show the public agree with Brown that it's too early to make drastic spending cuts aimed at reducing the country's 870 billion pounds (US$1.4 trillion) national debt – because to do so could jeopardize growth.

Cameron vowed last month to rapidly reduce Britain's debt if he wins power, pledging only to protect spending on health and overseas aid.

Over the weekend, he unexpectedly softened his tone. "We're not talking about swinging cuts," Cameron told the BBC on Sunday.

Sunder Katwala, head of London's leftist Fabian Society think tank, says that although Brown's chances are improving and Cameron's response on the economy appears muddled, the opposition chief is still likeliest to be Britain's next leader.

Before an election takes place, Britain could slip back into recession – gross domestic product rose only by 0.1 percent in the final quarter of 2009 – and Brown will give testimony at the country's inquiry into mistakes made in the Iraq war – factors which could stall the leader's revival.

Analysts also caution that polls don't take account of heavy spending by the Conservatives in the key marginal House of Commons districts where voters are most likely to switch from Labour to the opposition.

Two recent polls show the Tories ahead in bellwether towns, said Mike Smithson, a poll watcher and author of the "Political Betting" blog.

"They are all showing a significantly greater swing to the Tories than in the country as a whole," Smithson said. "And the election is won in 100 marginal seats, not in 600."

Smithson predicts Cameron's Conservatives are likely to win the election with a majority of between 30 and 40 seats.

Brown's Labout currently has a majority of 63 in the 646-seat House of Commons.

Britain must hold a national election by June 3, 2010. Brown is seeking a fourth successive five-year term for his Labour Party, while Cameron aims to return his party to power for the first time since 1997.

ComRes said Tuesday's poll based on telephone interviews with 1,001 adults Jan. 29-31. Polls of that size typically have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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Associated Press Writer Gregory Katz contributed to this report.

Comments

[angelneptustar]

05:16 AM on 03/18/2010

the gap between Tories and Labour has widened, in the Opinium poll Cameron has an 11 point lead, and in the ICM poll, he is ahead by 9 points.

The most popular politician in Britain is Boris Johnson. He is streets ahead of his nearest rival (Ken Livingstone) to win the London Mayoralty for another term, and he is leading in the betting with several punters to be the next Tory leader after David Cameron.

Having asserted himself forcefully over the London Assembly last month, this month, he sweet talked them into submission. http://cyberboris.wordpress.com/2010/03/18/boris-sweet-talks-city-hall/

Boris has great communictions skills and formidable intellect.

[kate99]

01:09 PM on 02/05/2010

I am not saying they will win but I can see them getting close Cameron to me seems to be another Blair just without the policies and fact is while its only small growth when the government said there would be growth Cameron made jokes and said no way but he was wrong and his idea of spending cuts is a joke he attacked brown about the military budget this week but notice he has not said he would not cut it

[FACTISFACT]

08:51 PM on 02/03/2010

The eminent political analysts and scholars has decided to remain quiet for sometime after they got the version of Clare Short to the inquiry committee made public by the press. She made most sensational reliable revelation regarding the present and the previous Prime Ministers.

The retired political leaders and political thinkers opined that Clare Short's revelation facts of certain unknown information of the present Prime Minister of UK with regard to his dubious character qualities and role in regard to Iraq war wherein he camouflaged his strong support to Tony Blair to take the country to war on the basis of lies.

This will cast a shadow during the ensuing Election and will definitely smear and damage PM"s edifice after his deposition before the Inquiry committee.

This may and will have tremendous devastating impact on his political career, particularly for being an accomplice of a liar and supporting the most hated person of the country Tony Blair, TO TAKE THE COUNTRY TO WAR ON LIES as these all are taking place just before the election BEING ON on the nation’s door steps.

[T-Faz]

06:37 AM on 02/03/2010

No, the whole country is in freefall. There is no good candidate that is worth voting for. How much did labour pay for this article.

[Azrael1701]

04:32 AM on 02/03/2010

The British pundits are right about one thing, the best that Gordon Brown can hope for is a hung parliament. You know your administration is in trouble or not going to win the next election when there is a scandal that affects the oppositon more than your own party but somehow your party gets the lion's share of the heat. The expenses scandal hit the Conservatives more than the Labour party where even senior Conservatives had to admit wrongdoing. But Gordown Brown had to shoulder most of the blame.

I do not like Gordon Brown. He has no charisma, his economic views are downright silly and he's a lightning rod for controversy. But David Cameron?? The UK is screwed whoever they elect.

[HuffEurope2]

12:23 AM on 02/03/2010

The UK economy has gone over the cliff, you'd have thought that a donkey wearing a Conservative Party rosette could have won a good majority at the next election.

But Cameron and his sniggering little college chum sidekick (Osborne) are deeply unappealing to most voters. They appear insincere, self-seeking and very inexperienced. There is even a suspicion they might spend much of time in office asset stripping and handing out goodies to friends and supporters; George Osborne has already been caught on the yacht of a Russian oligarch and Cameron can't seem to stay of Rupert Murdoch's boat.

The Conservative's will probably win a majority at the General Election, though with a small majority. Soon after they will need to implement a major and prolonged programme of cuts. The record of austerity governments in the UK is not good - only one has ever got re-elected! Is this an election any party should want to win?

[EuroMom]

05:18 PM on 02/02/2010

Could it be that the fact Gordon Brown has agreed to appear before the Iraq Enquiry panel even before the election (rather than holding off just in case it might damage him) has already boosted his ratings -- and that this has perhaps reminded people that David Cameron was strongly in favour of the Iraq war in the first place?
Of course, what he says might still damage him.
Or are they simply remembering his record as Chancellor and the fact that he was pretty much first off the mark in response to the global credit crisis? Answers on a postcard...