Gulf Oil Spill: Is The BP Gusher Unstoppable?

Mother Jones:

Sharon Astyk at ScienceBlogs points the way to a seriously scary comment thread at The Oil Drum, a sounding board for, among others, many petroleum geologists and oil professionals. The comment in question is from a seemingly very knowledgable "dougr." Some of it follows verbatim below. I've highlighted the parts that frightened me the most and left me wondering: Is this why Obama's praying?

Read the whole story: Mother Jones

Comments

[TxAggie]

08:51 AM on 07/02/2010

Well we should know in about three weeks how the first relief well works out. Hopefully the topic of discussion in this blog will be over shortly. Learn about the relief well at:

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/reliefwellgraphics062710.htm

[tc399]

11:44 AM on 06/20/2010

@Hollybork: I am not looking for a paying job. I can post a PM or several more sites. I simply try to correct some of the wild speculation that comes with every new story.

@wbthacker: The Russians did it but they were not working in the same type of rock. The three major types of rock involved at and shallower than the earth's crust are Metamorphic, Igneous and Sedimentary. The bottom of the Gulf of Mexico has been laid down over ~200 million years or so by sediment, mainly from the Mississippi river. It is sandstone and compressed particulate matter that is compressed rather that created as a result of volcanic activity. It is a big, warm pond with a semi-soft (as rock goes) bottom and it is very different than the bottom one might find in the North Sea. I didn't say it was a crazy idea. I explained (1) why it won't work in the Gulf and (2) that it the concussion would break every OTHER drill-head in that area of the gulf and there are over 14,000 of them. I don't think that's a great idea.

[MysteriousStranger]

07:40 AM on 06/19/2010

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-died-and-made-bp-the-king-of-the-gulf-of-mexico-2010-6
Who Died And Made BP The King Of The Gulf Of Mexico?

[roninroshi]

08:53 PM on 06/18/2010

A report on PBS today stated that a huge amount of methane gas has been released as well as oil causing it's own environmental disaster...along w/this the massive weight of the earth that has been supported by this huge oil deposit now that the pressure has been released by drilling BP must counter that massive weight w/a plug of some kind...good luck! This could well be a doomsday scenario...once the oil gets into the Loop Currant it could effect the entire worlds sea temp's and weather since the darker color of the water will collect more sunlight and heat...along w/this there large numbers of capped well's in the gulf the cap's are made of steel and exist in a corrosive environment (sea water) what happens when these fail due to corrosion...we have put or planet in a very dangerous situation due to greed...we humans tend think we are exceptions to law of nature...

[morg]

09:18 AM on 06/18/2010

the full review in more depth:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

[roninroshi]

12:29 AM on 06/19/2010

That information is beyond frightening...thanks for the link.

[lboucher]

02:38 AM on 06/18/2010

http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/article/environmental-engineer-dispersants-have-to-stop-now/897155/Jun-17-2010_6-43-pm/

BP’s use of Corexit dispersant will kill the Gulf with sulfuric acid: Environmental engineer

Joe Taylor, an environmental engineer in Daphne, says BP’s use of the dispersant Corexit is wrong, and they will kill the Gulf of Mexico. And Taylor has the scientific knowledge to back up his claim. He’s been cleaning up petroleum contamination for many years.

He says the sulfur and sulfuric acid based dispersant makes the oil spewing into the gulf sink, where its impossible to clean up–and where it depletes oxygen levels under the water, killing plankton and everything above plankton in the food chain. “Corexit is toxic, petroleum is toxic, and its depleting the oxygen levels,” he says.

[kiddub]

10:12 PM on 06/17/2010

Wind. Solar. Geothermic.

[B Kleitz]

09:51 PM on 06/17/2010

I have know this since it first happened. And when I say I have "known" this, I don't mean I am knowledgeable on the subject of deep water oil drilling, or geology of deep water oil drilling...I mean I knew it in my GUT. When they first started talking about how DEEP that well was...how can something like this BE stopped.
We had no right to do this to our planet.
Now, now she will have her way with us.
And we are going to suffer for the way we have abused her.
2012 is coming...

[B Kleitz]

09:57 PM on 06/17/2010

Sorry...first sentence above should read "I have knowN this since it first happened."

Long day.
Sorry.

[Dr Juan]

09:33 PM on 06/17/2010

This guy said only one thing that I can agree with : "The government is going to take all of BP's cash!"

The nuke idea is lunacy. You don't need casing in a well to kill it. Yes, there is a bad cement job but IMHO it is only the last and bottom most casing. And indeed this could have blasted up as high as into the BOP and origainal riser. When he says "lake" he must mean plume and this is not yet big enough to cover 40% of the Gulf.

In some prior interview he claims the well is at pressures of 40,000-50,000 psi which IMHO is geologically unobtainable. So I take his comments with a grain of salt - he must be looking for consulting work.

It is possible that there is a gas leak making flame on the water 3 miles away - but this is likely to be a gas leak - which is not that uncommon. But don't bank on it untill someone provides document footage - could be why reporters are flying out to the rig lately. But they all have come back with no new headline that made it to HP!

[tc399]

05:36 PM on 06/17/2010

Friends, don't panic. the human race isn't going extinct...just most of it; and not everywhere....only where you are.

When people begin to understand that wanting more and more will never bring satisfaction, but being satisfied with what you have will, and that eating what you grow is or fish for or even hunt is more satisfying than living like a trapped rat, I expect a few more people to join in and move to the only safe place left on earth. http://drtom.posterous.com.

[Rambutt]

04:29 PM on 06/17/2010

Yes, the leak is unstoppable. Just let it gush and
concentrate on containing the oil.

Let it gush for 1000 years if it must, just contain the oil.

Even if the seabed cracks on oil keeps gushing, just contain it.

And one other thing, just start biking and walking.

[hollybork]

12:37 PM on 06/18/2010

They may discover a new method of oil extraction from big subacquatic deposits. You blow up the seabed, surround the site of the "vent" with tankers outfitted with powerful pumps and vaccuums to pull up the oil, centrifuge it onboard to separate water from oil, and discard the seawater back into the ocean. As soon as the tanks are full on one tanker, bring in another tanker, until the gusher has equalized pressure and shuts down enough to get control of it at the wellhead.

[varbajian]

04:03 PM on 06/17/2010

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/us/17liability.html?hp

"As BP watches its bill rise quickly for the oil spill, including $20 billion it is setting aside for claims, it could find the tally growing much faster in coming months if the United States Department of Justice files criminal charges against the company.How Much Will BP Really Pay?

How does the public ensure that it doesn’t end up paying for costs of the spill 20 or 30 years out?

Based on the latest estimates, for example, the daily civil fine for the escaping oil alone could be $280 million. But criminal penalties, if imposed, could cause the costs to balloon still further, said David M. Uhlmann, a law professor at the University of Michigan, who headed the environmental crimes section of the Justice Department from 2000 to 2003.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/opinion/17thu1.html?ref=opinion

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/070430nj1.htm

[outnow]

02:13 PM on 06/17/2010

So everything that is "known" about oil ain't necessarily so.

In my humble opinion, this well is so deep that temperatures and extreme pressures are causing the methane to take a solid form on the bottom. The formation is made of methane crystals, sand, and rock. To me, this "formation" is unstable and at least partially based on solid methane at those depths and pressures. The approval letter dated April 6, 2009 from MMS to BP cites the methane being "close to the surface," and, therefore, being dangerous.

The pressure dynamics are quite different at those pressures and at those debths. If single casing was used that doesn't have spacers, or whatever the correct term is, the relief wells may not fix this well and bring it under control. The blasting of sand and rock could erode the BOP and/or the formation itself. If the roof lifts off this formation, there will be hell to pay.

The government is aware of this potential doomsday scenario and is very worried, no doubt. But we still must assume that it can be stopped and continue mitigation efforts.

[tc399]

05:42 PM on 06/17/2010

Methane clathrate forms in seawater at extreme depths and/or temperatures. The methane in the reservoir is gaseous, but under pressure. If it is released into a 'tophat' and held at depth in cold water it will immediately become methane ice, but if it is allowed to expand, it will not.

The roof won't 'lift off'. It will collapse. Water is heavier than oil.

[hollybork]

06:17 AM on 06/18/2010

Is there any material or composite of materials strong enough to hold down the pressure but not too heavy so as to further fracture or even collape the entire plate or salt dome or rock cap, so they can seal the oil inside? It would have to be light but incredibly strong, and big enough to cover well beyond the fractured or collapsed wellhole to be secured into the seabed floor. I guess part of the problem is the floor is sand. What kind of rock is below the sand?

If we were to fabricate a "lid" to hold down the seabed floor, how big and how many lbs per square inch would it have to withstand from above so as not to be collapsed by the water? Could they build a huge by pass box around the well and pump the water out where the well head is or would the loss of the counterweight from the mile of seawater make is rupture faster or blow out from the pressure below.

Is there plastic, glass, porcelain, or steel that could work to build a lid for this?
Some kind of plastic poured into a lattice of rebar. I am totally out of my league here. But something like a giant plate you could lower over the area where the seabed is bleeding, like an artificial salt dome I guess....

[outnow]

08:00 AM on 06/18/2010

Thanks for the info.

[tc399]

01:29 PM on 06/17/2010

A nuclear device will not work. It might, if the borehole were reasonably intact, or if the floor of the Gulf could take the stress of fusing rock into glass in the area of the borehole but that is not the case here.

Some relatively unsophisticated physical laws are involved. Simply, if one begins pumping 2 million gallons of liquid a day out of a hole under a semi-soft bottom which is under 2400 PSI of pressure from the top and no telling how much from the bottom, a large area of pressure imbalance will appear very quickly. The empty space in the oil lake, which is not being offset by replacing the removed oil with water, will not support the Gulf of Mexico. Imagine it this way. Take a plastic soda bottle, shake it up, and open it about 3 feet underwater. That's what is very possibly going to happen.

Water is one pound per gallon heavier than oil. The water will, at some point, crack the bottom of the Gulf and fill that void. That will release billions of BARRELS of oil and Methane into the gulf and into the atmosphere within days.

[hollybork]

09:08 PM on 06/17/2010

What did you think about this, Fans which is the link you posted earlier and I just was able to play now:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MARDF8F4P4&NR=1

I thought the talk about a small scale nuclear device was idiotic until I actually listened to this guy after following the geology blogs for the last three weeks. He says it is releasing 125k barrels a day. Some incredible damage must have been done when it blew up, sending destruction down the well bore for another mile and a half. If that casing is gone to the bottom of the well, I don't see how you can ever stop it until it runs out.This is worse than Ixtoc by far, a bigger oil reservoir, under greater pressure, with more methane.

[hollybork]

06:27 PM on 06/19/2010

tc - did you see this comment posted to another huffpo story? Wonder what you think? I see a lot of problems with this on" based upon what I understand to be the prickly pressure situations faced with the high levels of gas but using pipe where the cement has already cured has a certain logic to it.
*************************************************************************************

"As an expert in oilfields in the Middle East, I offered BP the following simple technique that can instantly plug the well. Though BP admitted it can work, it wouldn't implement it because it will kill the Well.

PLUGGING BP WELL BY A STRING OF CEMENT-FILLED CASING PIPES:

BP has to lower down the wellbore through the Blowout Preventer a string of 18" Casing Pipes connected together 500-1000 ft long after being filled with cement}- Finito!

BP Well will instantly be plugged and there will be no need for the Relief Wells. They have assortment of Casing Pipes onboard their platform in the Gulf. The annular space between the Casing Pipe String and the well walls will be filled by pumping cement. The whole operation will take few hours.

REQUEST YOUR CONGRESSMEN TO INVITE ME TO FACE BP EXECUTIVES TO IMPLEMENT THIS SOLUTION AND END THE NIGHTMARE"

"Eng. Hodieb Khalifa
Cairo - Egypt
hodieb_khalifa yahoo
002-0163427827"

[tc399]

09:37 PM on 06/19/2010

It's possible that if they managed to get a small diameter plug full of cement down the borehole and it was graduated up to about 60 inches at the top....and they pulled off the 450 ton BOP and dropped that puppy down the main borehole and keep it in place while simultaneously taking pressure off the hole with two relief wells, it might have worked a month ago before the well casing blew out.

But now I don't think there is much of a chance that anything is going to work and I am really a bit surprised that everyone is sitting around waiting for the US government, which has always fixed things in the past...at least for the 'no child left behind' generation, to fix the Gulf and the economy and stop a 3,000 year-old conflict in the middle east, and get our jobs and homes back and bail out the 49 states which are about to tank.

Instead, the government just effectively ceded half of Arizona to Mexican drug cartels, is trying to buy off enemies with money we no longer have and they know it....and letting the citizenry go right to hell so Big Business can keep making obscene profits.

(continued)

[hollybork]

01:17 PM on 06/17/2010

drtom.posterous continued

Even if they plugged the riser, the amount of oil leaking from AROUND it cannot be contained because the diameter of the leak is greater than the combined diameters of both relief wells. What will probably happen instead is when a relief well gets close to the borehole, the main bore will simply collapse and blow out completely.

And at the very same time, the relief well will explode because drilling mud cannot handle the pressure. A short time later the seafloor will rupture.

The oil will destroy the Gulf for a hundred years but it won't matter to us. The methane release will generate an extinction event by 2030 at this rate or, in only a few years if the bottom of the Gulf comes apart.