Stuart Rothenberg: Anti-Incumbent Narrative Is Just Hype

Roll Call:

My heart sank when I saw my friend Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post write about this cycle's elections and whether they really deserved the "anti-incumbent" moniker that they have received. Damn it, I thought, there goes another half-written column that I have to toss into the trash.

Read the whole story: Roll Call

Comments

[brt929]

11:02 AM on 06/17/2010

I hadn't heard that Mary Beth Buchanan was running for office. She so deserves to be disbarred.

[NWBrunette]

10:56 AM on 06/17/2010

Of course it's just hype. Always has been. The anti-incumbent mood is always an anti-YOUR-incumbent mood. Nothing more. It's important to remember, all politics is local. This editorial is that reminder. Come November, every one of the incumbents in my State will be re-elected; and in four out of the five cases, that's a good thing.

[Alhitch]

10:45 AM on 06/17/2010

Welcome to the new democRAT party where an African-American man with strange origins, suspicious funding, shady associations, no experience, no qualifications, and no demonstrable work history can come out of nowhere and win an election.......Alvin for prez in 2012!!...Oh, I forgot to mention that, like Ted Kennedy, he has been charged with a felony....double bonus!!

[onlinesavant]

12:14 PM on 06/17/2010

If you want to count felony convictions, then Greene would be more comfortable in the regressive party. I'm quite sure that if you want to do a role call of all the various legal transgressions engaged in by members of that party, you'll find that there is no comparison to those with which the Democratic party can offer.That being formally understood, your willingness to delude yourself into thinking that somehow this whole discourse is about Democrats vs. regressives, left wingers vs far right wingers, is reflective of your narrow-mindedness more than anything. This is about working and middle class people and families vs. corporations. Democracy vs. fascism. If you don't know that yet, well then, you still have plenty of intellectual developing to do.

[SocialNote47]

10:41 AM on 06/17/2010

This man is being set up. There's more to this story. He will be in alot of hot water, in the next coming month's. He will be hung out to dry, by whom ever is doing this to him... This man is mentley unstable...And the people who are setting him up know this...

[Alhitch]

10:49 AM on 06/17/2010

Exactly who do you think is setting him up?

[errol44]

10:34 AM on 06/17/2010

Stuart, you were doing well until you finally concluded that November will be a sweeping victory for Republicans. Your entire narrative disputes that. Leading into the primaries, pundits were lining up to cite polls as their basis for predicting a widespread outing of incumbents. The truth is, that has not happened and, as you point out, incumbents have been hugely successful in their primaries to date.

Something that likely projects the illusion of "anti-incumbency" to you is the uber-loud voice of far right extremists. It must be noted however that, in contrast, while those on the left are not happy with everything the majority has (or has not) done, there is no indication that they are ready to give away the the store to the extremists. To the contrary, it appears that that the right's embracing of extremist candidates has motivated those on the left and in the middle to keep them out, more than keeping incumbents in.

You gave us your prediction, now here is mine: If Republicans had not abandoned the middle, had not gone all extremist-militia-conspiracy-birther-truther-hatethePresident on us, they would have an excellent shot at regaining seats. But they have done that; moved their collective ideology to the far, far right and thus put themselves out of touch with mainstream America. November then will reflect America's will to keep extremism out; a large incumbent victory with Democrats picking up a few more seats.

[brt929]

10:54 AM on 06/17/2010

Fanned. Let's hope the Indies see that the Republican Party has allowed the Extremists and the Crazies to take it over.

[errol44]

11:13 AM on 06/17/2010

Agreed - The mid terms are really Democrats' to lose. All they have to do is keep hammering at the extremist, anti-working class positions of the right and they should do extremely well. On that note, besides adopting extreme far right ideals, Republicans have, time and again, sided against working-class Americans in their obstructionist votes: against unemployment benefits, against health care, against Wall Street reform.... the list goes on. By campaigning on these major issues, Democrats have the opportunity to come away with an even larger majority in November.

[brt929]

10:54 AM on 06/17/2010

Oops, already a fan, guess a favorite will have to do.

[hischagal]

10:29 AM on 06/17/2010

If you checked the facts you would know that a huge percentage of incumbents of the most recent elections have won.

[Kevin Atlanta]

10:13 AM on 06/17/2010

In these midterm primaries 84 incumbents and 82 are still there.
Americans are too lazy to become informed and vote.
Dubya was elected by the Supreme Court the first time; by Hate of the Gays the second and in both instances the tampering with voting machines and the polling places documented. Karzi isn't the only corrupt politician.

[brt929]

10:58 AM on 06/17/2010

Actually, I often heard from people that voted for him the second time (even if they didn't vote for him the first time) was because "we were at war."

He played those yellow and orange warnings just right!

[sdried]

10:11 AM on 06/17/2010

I agree. I never believed anything unusual was unfolding and expect Rethugs to be greatly disappointed in November. Their troubles will continue to deepen until they find something to stand for that's not on the lunatic fringe. I may have a Progressive bias but I think the cover story of this week's Economist sums it up nicely:
http://www.economist.com/node/16321546

[DianneinCA]

11:54 AM on 06/17/2010

Thank you for that link. Very interesting, and true.

[Tecmage]

10:05 AM on 06/17/2010

Freedomworks and Kock Industries presents Anti-incumbent Fever!

[Cookie100]

09:18 AM on 06/17/2010

But come November, we will have a rather traditional midterm election. Angry voters will turn out to vote against the party in charge. And that’s why, ultimately, 2010 will be remembered as a Republican wave election, not an anti-incumbent year."
*******

Yha'll we'll see. States traditionally vote blue will, and the opposite as well. There are a couple of candidates like Angle running on a phony teabagger platform. She and her husband are both federal employees, so really, how on earth out she considers herself an outsider, I have no idea.
Barnum said, 'there's a su cker born everyday', a vote for her will prove it.

[tacevad]

08:58 AM on 06/17/2010

a poll of anti incumbent voters would most likely show that they mean other than their own congresscritter.

[planetmondo]

08:47 AM on 06/17/2010

Love and happiness, Lets stay together,Call me,Still in love with you .I love Al Greene why would anyone not vote for him.

[elijah24]

09:03 AM on 06/17/2010

I realize you are kidding, but when I heard that woman say that about Al Greene, I thought to myself "I love the St. Louis Cardinals who play in Busch Stadium, but I still voted against George W. Bush, and it was the right decision."

[logic123]

09:30 AM on 06/17/2010

Bottom line is there are many people out there that haven't been trained to ask questions and think for themselves. His win is proof of it.

If the SC Democratic party there is wise they'll take him under their wing, educate him on how to think and behave strategically and back him fully.

[lisaman]

10:02 AM on 06/17/2010

I still want to know where he got $10k to file in the first place.

[den1953]

08:42 AM on 06/17/2010

Translation the American people aren't getting what they think is their vote stands for the law makers that are representing them are not doing what the people want or need. When the people see how they are ignored for a law makers profit then it is time to vote them out. Why not vote a typical everyday American in office at least they lived among the every day struggling masses. They could make better choices for the people then the elite out of touch politicians that are lifers in Washington!

[irishinohio]

08:34 AM on 06/17/2010

And where is all this anti-incumbent hype coming from?

The so called Liberal Media.......

Anything for a headline or sound-byte.....

[Cookie100]

09:21 AM on 06/17/2010

yha'll, the liberal media, ih huh. It's so liberal Judith Miller and the NYT's got us into this mess in the middle east, aiding and abetting Dubya's admin.

[knerd]

08:20 AM on 06/17/2010

I'm with theobseleteman. Rachel got there first.