Unemployment: Report Says Jobs Hole Could Persist For A Decade (CHART)

The U.S. Senate's epic struggle just to reauthorize unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless suggests that policymakers in Washington fundamentally don't understand the jobs hole we're in, according to a team of trained economists.

The progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research reports that it could take an entire decade for the national unemployment rate to come down to pre-recession levels.

"Between December 2007 -- the official first month of the recession -- and December 2009, the U.S. economy lost more than eight million jobs," write CEPR's John Schmitt and Tessa Conroy. "Even if the economy creates jobs from now on at a pace equal to the fastest four years of the early 2000s expansion, we will not return to the December 2007 level of employment until March 2014.

"And, by the time we return to the number of jobs we had in December 2007, population growth will have increased the potential labor force by about 6.5 million jobs. If job growth matched the fastest four years in the most recent economic expansion, the economy would not catch up to the expanded labor force until April 2021."

Here's a dramatic chart from CEPR showing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began:

Click HERE to see even more horrifying charts.

Comments

[jcamel77]

03:22 PM on 08/15/2010

People, people, relax. There is nothing special about this article. It's no more revealing than if it read, "from Monday, the weekend is about 5 days away." They are "predicting" (using that extremely lightly) about 6.5 yrs round trip from Dec 2007 to March 2014. That’s quite typical of most recessions and much better than some. Not too mention it’s irrelevant.
Here are the facts: Oct 1973 unemployment went from 4.6% to 9% by May 1975 and back to a low of 5.6% in May 1979. That’s 5.5 yrs round trip if you consider that close enough to pre-levels. However, it never actually went below 5% again until May 1997 – 23.5 years! And those were 2 decades of the fastest growth ever! And it didn’t seem to matter much because the Dow Jones and S&P500 went up by a FACTOR of more than 7 during that period! During the 1990’s recession it also took 6 years to return to June 1990 levels (August 1996).
So, there is nothing scary about this article. Actually, when the facts of history are reviewed closely this is a very positive report. But in this light I guess the headline wouldn’t be as exciting.
Oh yeah, and when we do reach pre-recession levels, rejoice, because that will be immediately followed by the next recession.

[Snapper Snap]

04:20 AM on 07/23/2010

The Libs will be pushing for extended unemployment benefits for the next 10 years.

[Jeremy Manzanares]

03:48 AM on 07/22/2010

Alright so obama blamed average every day americans for credit card debt in which their is a substantial amount of americans in debt with their card holder, all the while the credit card companys were and still are borrowing money them selves from other country's on a high interest rate (its a monster)Then you got prisons, that is a very big business! that all sucks money from people pockets and doesn't give back none, or how about all the charity cases(very disabled) that cost 100,000 dollars a year just to keep them alive that have and will never work a day in their lives, Or how about wasteful spending amongst city, state, and federal, for ex. in calif. a sheriff was payed 500,000 dollars a yr.! Or how about corporate pay, does anybody really need to make more 200,000+ dollars a yr. to be happy? or anybody for that matter! So is this everybody's fault or a broken system? Its so good you could die for it right, this is all part of a human sickness for wealth, greed, and compassion. So how do you fix it?

[RMorr2002]

06:20 PM on 07/21/2010

Wow! They got this thread off the front page quickly! That graph shows that everything obama is saying is pure BS!

[wollstonecraft]

03:25 PM on 07/21/2010

We need some vision from community people to turn things around. I don't have an answer. I keep going around in circles. We can't get together as small groups, pool our work skills and talents, and start small businesses to offer as an alternative to the big corporations. You need funding/loans to get it off the ground, and I don't know of many lending institutions/banks that are lending.

Does anyone have an opinion about communities setting up their own currency, and operating outside the Wall Street/corporate establishment? I admit I'm not very well informed about this. But I'm sick of seeing people undeservedly being trapped and desperate.

[maninal]

03:32 PM on 07/21/2010

Establishing your own currency will get you arrested. Barter is an option but still taxable. We do need to turn local and abandon the myth of global trade. It's killing this country. For starters avoid any multi-national corporations and their products. Purchase minimally and look for local suppliers. Many cities have farmer's markets or search the internet for US made food and goods.

[wollstonecraft]

03:46 PM on 07/21/2010

I agree with you about avoiding the multinationals and such, but I think you're mistaken about establishing our own currency being illegal. My understanding is that as long as you're reporting to the IRS, that there are laws governing it, but it's legal, and I believe there is a community in New England, possibly in New York State, already doing it.

[Nofuzzydreams]

03:09 PM on 07/27/2010

get lost you nut!

[Liberal2]

03:47 PM on 07/21/2010

"....We need some vision from community people to turn things around..."

Effing NO!

Economic growth is the result of having major industries, raw materials (metals, energy, etc.), an educational system, and a high marginal federal income tax. Yeah, high taxes ****ARE**** necessary. Without them wealth gets concentrated and not reinvested because the wealthy see no purchasing by the bottom 95% of a society, so why invest in manufacturing. And all the service sector supports is the top 5%.

"Community people" bring little to an economic debate. BUT.....when the economy is good, they help create a livable society.

[RMorr2002]

01:33 PM on 07/21/2010

A year after President Barack Obama's political honeymoon ended, his job approval rating has dropped to a negative 44 - 48 percent, his worst net score ever, and American voters say by a narrow 39 - 36 percent margin that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than President Obama in 2012, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[Democrat in the South]

01:37 PM on 07/21/2010

Guess we'll find out in 2012.

[RMorr2002]

01:39 PM on 07/21/2010

Very True!

[maninal]

03:16 PM on 07/21/2010

Yet when you name a Republican that number drops precipitously. Nice vague poll that has no bearing on now. Cling to that sore loser... it might help.

[Nofuzzydreams]

03:11 PM on 07/27/2010

You just show who is in Obama's base. All losers and nuts!

[research]

12:40 PM on 07/21/2010

Conservatism's goal has always been to conserve the monarchy, bankrupt the Republic, and return the citizens to serfdom.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/

Serfs live short, fearful, brutish lives. That's what conservatism wants.

[OkieMon]

03:16 PM on 07/21/2010

yes workd hard for them for 30 years and then drop dead.....

[maninal]

03:16 PM on 07/21/2010

Conservatism is the theology of Oligarchs....

[jgronin]

11:19 AM on 07/22/2010

Very true... However The trolls on this board don't understand words like

conservatism, theology, and especially oligarchy

which translates for them into

Repubs obsess on rich men who rule

[MoreFreedom]

10:54 AM on 07/21/2010

Reading the graph shows that since Obama's election, we've lost 10 million jobs, thank God they've saved 2 million for a net loss of only 8 million. I guess the businesses, seeing the writing on the wall, haven't invested in creating jobs because of Obama.

[elimenez]

11:37 AM on 07/21/2010

It's easy to blame Obama. It's hard to understand what is actually going on. I blame a whole slew of people, specific people, like Joe Cassano, Alan Greenspan, Dick Cheney, Phil Gramm, because in reality things are a bit more complex.

[Righteous Fury]

12:13 PM on 07/21/2010

Maybe you didn't learn this in 5th grade social studies, but a person doesn't actually become president on the day they are elected. That happens about 80 days later.

Since Obama became president on January 20, 2009 the stock market has gone from 8,000 to 10,000 points.

[RMorr2002]

12:28 PM on 07/21/2010

And....since this election is about who will control Congress, you might want to point out that in Jan 2007, which is when the Democrats took Control, the DOW was at 12,621.77
and it is now at 10,000. As a side note....in Jan 2007, unemployment was at 4.6%.

Just trying to keep the facts straight! :)

[AFunkyMan]

10:32 AM on 07/21/2010

Mr. President

I believe you and your administration have turned the corner.
Since you took office, things have changed for the better. (night and day..or dare I say b.lack and white),

It's been over a year now and let's take a look at some POSITIVE things:

- Improvement in the economy, stock market and jobs numbers.
- Improvement in World Standing, Outlook and relations
- Improvement in functionality and streamlining of government
- Improvement in transparency and information by the government
- Improvement in upholding the rule of law (domestic and international)
- Improvement in tax relief to the middle and lower classes
- Improvement in access to health care and Insurance for the middle and lower classes
- Improvement FOR the middle and lower classes (.) period

Now let's take a look at the Negative things :

- Republicans are still obstructing
- Republicans are still lying
- Republicans are still saying NO

I was not so good at math but I do know what 180 degrees means .

Regards,
Funky--..

[GeorgieGirl9]

10:47 AM on 07/21/2010

Do your bosses in the WH write this for you or do you have to come up with it?

[elimenez]

11:39 AM on 07/21/2010

He's not wrong. The fact is that it's not b.lack and white. They are shades of grey. The WH has done much to improve the situation but they haven't done enough. They could have really pressed the issue back in early 2009 for a larger stimulus but they didn't. It doesn't matter, most people will not look at the big picture and will only focus on the economy. After all its' hard to pay attention when you can't pay your rent.

[Righteous Fury]

12:06 PM on 07/21/2010

Does George W. know his girl is only 9?

[USNDC]

10:15 AM on 07/21/2010

That's called ... "lowering expectations".

Do you reaaly think that by writing these words ... Obama is now goig to be off the hook on job creation ?

Nice try.

Obama has "no" job creation plan ... none.

Obama will indeed be held accountable for the lack of jobs ... that's how it works.

[maninal]

02:40 PM on 07/21/2010

Unlike you Bushies Obama knows he's not a dictator... job creation would begin in Congress... the lack of participation in the interest of all Americans is responsible for a weakened stimulus and resulting job creation

[Papa Swamp]

08:45 AM on 07/21/2010

$3.7 Trillion to the financial sector so far....how does that feel taxpayers?
* Total US govt financial system support seen at $3.7 trln

* US support swells by $700 bln in past year-watchdog

* Mortgage, housing commitments account for most of rise

* TARP watchdog criticizes Obama housing rescue efforts

By David Lawder

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Increased housing commitments swelled U.S. taxpayers' total support for the financial system by $700 billion in the past year to around $3.7 trillion, a government watchdog said on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2010140720100721

[maninal]

03:38 PM on 07/21/2010

Federal Reserve sparky...
"Indeed, the current outstanding balance of overall Federal support for the nation's financial system...has actually increased more than 23% over the past year, from approximately $3.0 trillion to $3.7 trillion -- the equivalent of a fully deployed TARP program -- largely without congressional action, even as the banking crisis has, by most measures, abated from its most acute phases," the TARP inspector general, Neil Barofsky, wrote in the report.

The total includes Federal Reserve programs and a myriad of asset guarantees, including Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protection for bank deposits.

Don't you hate when other people can read and expose your attempt to deceive?

[betterandbetter99]

08:43 AM on 07/21/2010

Think tanks estimate the federal government wastes between $500Billion and $1Trillion per year. This expenditure produces no jobs and no economic growth. At the high end that would be 1/3 of all US federal spending. $1 wasted is $1 not spent on job creation. Spent properly, we'd have 5million new jobs within 18 months.

[healthanalyst]

01:39 PM on 07/21/2010

Government spending is for jobs. Think the military ought to work for free? Never been in have you.
It shows.

[maninal]

02:43 PM on 07/21/2010

Which think tanks? Those against the wars? I think not. Who appointed think tanks to govern?

[vippy]

08:03 AM on 07/21/2010

Wow, so the politicians can call us LAZY for that long? Hope they are prepared to pay for unemployment that long!

[WhatChanged]

09:03 AM on 07/21/2010

The real question is how long are YOU willing to pay for unemployment.

Once you finish high school, get a job and start paying taxes you are going to come to grips with the reality that the money that the government hands out comes is coming from YOUR pocket

[Democrat in the South]

09:08 AM on 07/21/2010

Correct. And so ...............it isn't a hand out if I pay for it? Right?

[healthanalyst]

01:40 PM on 07/21/2010

State takes money from employees and employer for unemployment. Not that you always get it when you lose your job.

[moose and squirrel]

06:43 AM on 07/21/2010

you can see the nosedive in jobs just after the beginning of 2008. that is so depressing.

[RMorr2002]

07:18 AM on 07/21/2010

Hmmm.....and the Dems took control of Congress in Jan 2007,,,,,,,Coincidence????

[moose and squirrel]

07:35 AM on 07/21/2010

no, not if you understand that the recession was caused by factors predating dem's victory in congress by several years. somewhere around 2004-2005, bankruptcy laws were changed to make it difficult for homeowners to walk away from their mortgages-- looks like somebody knew what was coming way before 2007.

[tonebender]

10:37 AM on 07/21/2010

Bush economic policies remained in effect. Factors such as suppressed wages were well established.

[pgrlights]

04:35 AM on 07/21/2010

After the through whooping that the GOP's boys gave America with their retirement accounts and jobs , America wants to let the GOP back in the 'drivers seat'???

[WhatChanged]

09:06 AM on 07/21/2010

Are you so uninformed that you don't know that the Democrats controlled the House and Senate and sat with their thumbs in their rears dining on lobbyist lunches while the US economy crash dived?

[Democrat in the South]

09:13 AM on 07/21/2010

Rethugs have brainwashed you pretty good!

[RMorr2002]

11:32 AM on 07/21/2010

What Democrat in the South is trying to say is ...YES, he IS that uninformed!