function hide_user_promo_bubble_second_stage() { var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble"); bubble.style.display = "none"; } function hide_user_promo_bubble() { var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble"); var myAnim = new YAHOO.util.Anim(bubble, { opacity: { to: 0 } }, 1, YAHOO.util.Easing.easeOut); myAnim.animate(); setTimeout("hide_user_promo_bubble_second_stage()", 1100); } function handle_promo_username(params) { var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble"); var img = $("user_promo_bubble_image"); var anchor = $("user_promo_bubble_link"); if (params.has_photo == "true") { img.src = "http://images.huffingtonpost.com/profiles/" + params.user_id + "-tiny.png"; } else { img.style.display = "none"; Dom.addClass(anchor, "wide"); } anchor.innerHTML = "Shared by " + params.user_name; anchor.href = "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/" + params.user_name; bubble.style.display = "block"; var myAnim = new YAHOO.util.Anim(bubble, { opacity: { to: 1 } }, 2, YAHOO.util.Easing.easeOut); myAnim.animate(); } if (HuffPoUtil.getUrlVar("user_promo")) { YAHOO.util.Event.onDOMReady(function() { var parts = document.location.hash.split(","), shared_by = "", badge = "", i; if (parts.length < 2) return; for (i = 0; i < parts.length; i++) { if (parts[i].indexOf("sb=") !== -1) { shared_by = parts[i]; } if (parts[i].indexOf("b=") !== -1) { badge = parts[i]; } } if (shared_by == "" || badge == "") return; var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble"); if (!bubble) return; var entry_id = HuffPoUtil.GetEntryID(); if (!entry_id) return; var user_id = parseInt(shared_by.substr(shared_by.indexOf("sb=") + 3)); if (!user_id) return; var badge_type = badge.substr(badge.indexOf("b=") + 2); if (!badge_type) return; script = document.createElement("script"); script.setAttribute("type", "text/javascript"); bubble.appendChild(script); script.setAttribute("src", "/include/share_track.php?a=view&eid=" + entry_id + "&uid=" + user_id + "&b=" + badge_type + "&cb=handle_promo_username"); }); } 6 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy In Better Shape Than You Think: Milken Institute (PHOTOS)

First the bad news: a growing number of economists suggest the U.S. has significant chance of falling into another recession -- and today's GDP numbers aren't much comfort.

The good news, however, is that not every prominent economist shares that view. Ross Devol, the Executive Director of Economic Research, at the Milken Institute, a non-partisan think tank based in Santa Monica, California, believes "a return to modest but sustainable growth is close at hand."

In light of Devol's lamentations over the "volume and vitriol" that "bleeds over into the realm of economic forecasting" contained in his latest paper "From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth", we'll keep this brief, and let his most recent predictions do the talking.

Among Devol's forecasts include a strong recovery in business investment in equipment, particularly in IT and software, more robust U.S. exports driven by emerging-market demand and policy, a more upbeat consumer and record low long-term interest rates. All of which, according to Devol, will induce the U.S. to add 3.1 million jobs in 2011 and another 2.6 million in 2012, translating into real GDP growth of 3.7 percent in 2011, and then 3.8 percent in 2012.

Devol paints a pretty picture. Here it is, in chart-form. And because, as Robert Shiller points out, "fear of a double-dip recession could cause one," enjoy these slides and think positive.

1 of 7

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Comments

[Thomas Murphy]

Yeah....RIGHT!

[Ty2010]

Looks like they're trying to pump the market before they dump whatever stocks and bonds they or their associates are holding.

[747eagle]

Why is an increase in housing prices or the number or houses sold an indicator of good economic health? Isn't that the problem that started all this to begin with? How about house prices go down so the average person can actually buy one.

---
http://www.cubecheck.com

[AxelDC]

Milken's projections are more optimistic than others I've seen. EIU predicts us growth of real GDP at 2.0-2.5% for every year through 2014. That's a full point below Milken, and affects every other prediction aversely.

[BikeFreak]

No.

Don't buy it, people.

This economy is far from having a good outlook. H3ll, it's not even close to having a mediocre one!

[katooom]

What a joke.

projections are like models. You can make them say whatever you want them to. Somebody should save this and then look back in 4yrs time.

[DoTheOpposite]

Get a debit card ..............mine works in any country in the world for EVERYTHING.,........cars, hotels, tickets etc.

Its a european Bank ............called World Pass and I am spending MY money and also no ATM fees

[sb250guy]

Settle down. Don't get too excited. Anyone could make "projections" with yellow bars that say anything. Heck, I'll bet I could make a chart with even bigger yellow bars. Would that cheer you up?

[AZreb]

We all know that opinions are the same as a**holes - everybody's got one. However, we no longer trust the economists, the banks, the financial institution cheerleaders when they say everything is coming up roses.

TARP was going to cure everything - the automotive industry bail out and cash for clunkers was a sure-fire cure - the wars would be over in a couple of years - and more.

I, for one, am getting even more skeptical and cynical when I read articles that paint a rosy picture of the economy and the future. Our government, especially Congress that votes itself a raise every year, is so far out of touch with the Main Street that it says is its main concern that it is beyond belief.

I hope to be pleasantly surprised, but am not holding my breath.

[nothingchanges]

I just wanted to second your statement about "trust". To me that's the most important deficit we face as a nation. Both good business and good government, are fundamentally based on "trust".

Trust is an interesting concept. Once it's been betrayed, how does one buy it back? At what cost?

The people of America suffering the most for the effects of the "recession", for the most part, had no part in it's creation.

The ones that did take part in the actions that caused the "recession" are getting richer by the day. How does one justify billions in bonuses for management decisions that drove the country to the brink of bankruptcy? How could the government allow tax monies to be used in such an unjust way? Why are there no indictments? Where is the oversight? Where is the media outrage?

Both business and government have proven by their actions unworthy of the peoples "trust". Until that fundamental issue is addressed, I fear we are in for a very long haul.

[MilesToGo]

These remarks are the most salient of any. Trust is the key to stability and growth, and it is seriously lacking presently. There really are no encouraging signs of trust returning anytime soon.

[MysticLadyNCa]

How in the World can anyone foresay that the economy is picking up, when here we are, my husband and I are having to file Bankruptsy, something we NEVER ever thought we would have to do. Its not even credit card debt,. Chickn sh*t Banks! Why Isnt anyone putting blame where it belongs? To the Money Monger Banks that gave out BAD LOANS, period. They started this whole economic mess, listening to Bush when he said "make homes affordable to all American People!" just make it happen! Ohh, and they sure did. It became a full blown disaster, and then who of all gets bailed out?? Those freeking Banks, the main cause of our economic failure. My husband lost his job, my hours were cut and days cut,and unemployment doesnt quite cover a $2080.00 mortgage. I think and really feel that Americans have taken the Brunt of all of this economic failures, not because of any of their doing at all.but again because of Big Banks Greed. I think the Credit Reporting Bureaus should wipe out all of Americans credit reports clean, a new slate so to speakbecause like us, our credit is tarnished because of late mortgage payments, even no mortgage payments(no money to pay it) We have no choice but to file Bankruptsy now, we are way underwater with our home of 18yrs(bought it in 92' for $185,000, today its now only worth $285,000, gone is security.

[1logicalthinker]

While I have sympathy for your situation I am wondering how your home, purchased in 1992 for $185,000 has a monthly payment of $2080.00. Thirty year fixed interest rates during that year averaged around 8%, which, even if you paid nothing down, would result in a payment of only $1,360.00 per month. To get a payment of $2080.00 on $185,000 would require an interest rate of $13.25%. Rates were not nearly that high then. Please help us understand how you wound up with a $2,080 monthly payment.

[Chbronze]

Of course, like everyone else they used their home as a atm. I'm sure there is a second mortgage, if not a third, which people do not look at as credit card debt, althought the terms can be quite similar.
People will not spend money until the housing market bottoms and the true value of their home is determined. Banks will not lend money until the housing and commercial real estate value bottom and the banks realize what their true balance sheet is.
Moodys, S&P, and Fitchs are beginning to truly rate CDO's which will cause banks to once again adjust the value of their investments. We are just getting started cleaning up this mess which was caused by both parties, each of us have skin in this game.

[she343]

I understand your frustration but your house is worth $100,000 more than when you bought it? How many equity loans? I'm guilty too-but did you get in over your head?

[tompoe]

Is this one of the economist gangs that didn't see the crash coming?

[treat2day]

---A deplorable insult--"none" of the major websites show headlines--is the outrage behind us?

http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/citigroup-to-pay-for-75-million-for-hiding-exposure-to-subprime-cdos


I don’t understand!?!? “We are pleased that we have reached agreement with the SEC to put this matter concerning certain 2007 disclosures behind us, and that the SEC is not charging Citi or any individual with intentional or reckless misconduct," said Citigroup spokeswoman Shannon Bell.

resulted multiple taxpayer-financed bailouts—$45 billion overall.


Citigroup to Pay $1 for Every $500 in Subprime Exposure It Hid


SEC $75 million to settle charges that the bank hid exposure to more than $40 billion in subprime CDOs.

[TruelyFedUp]

Tell that to the 44+ million unemployed Americans.

Or better yet help them by signing this petition called Unemployment Solution USA
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/petition/766/237/867

[leeman79]

The Milken Institute? This is the junk bonds guy from the 80's who went to prison? More bullsh@t, that's about it. The only way we're going to get out of this nightmare, is produce our way out. Yes, the U.S. needs to be a producer again, and the government needs to be providing incentives to get U.S. industry (made here) back on the map. The Reagan consumer based economy is as big of a joke now, as it was 30 years ago. Scrap it!

[YMBM]

Wow, someone agrees with me!!

[sb250guy]

That doesn't necessarily make either one of you right.

[YMBM]

TIME WILL TELL!

[PeanutButterJellyGirl]

I agree with you. I moved along as slow and steady as before. I haven't stopped spending. I'm not rich or even true middle class, but I have bought a home, a new vehicle and all of the stuff needed in the last year. If I got canned today, I could still go work at McDonalds and pay my bills. I just wish the market weren't so volatile ... my 401k took a beating last quarter.