Bill Brady The Clear Winner For Governor? Nate Silver Gives Brady 86.7 Percent Chance Of Winning Illinois Governor Race

On Labor Day, President Obama made an impassioned plea to progressives--hoping they will vote in the midterm elections and avoid giving Republicans "the keys back." In Illinois, however, Republicans are looking to take the keys for the first time in a long time.

Legendary statistician Nate Silver, whose "Five Thirty Eight" blog is now available on the New York Times website, is predicting that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady has an 86.7 percent chance of winning the race for Illinois governor.

Chart from "Five Thirty Eight" blog at the NYT:

As for how the state will vote, Silver predicts that Governor Pat Quinn will take 44 percent of the vote and Brady will receive 51.5 percent.

"Silver's prediction for the Illinois governor's race is gonna give lots of Democrats a bad case of heartburn," Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax blog wrote Wednesday.

Silver's predictions for the Senate race are a lot closer--but still bad news for Democrats:

Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias have been neck and neck in recent months--and Silver predicts it will stay that way through November. He believes Kirk will receive 48.7 percent of the state vote on election day, and Giannoulias will receive 48.2 percent.

Silver correctly predicted the winner of 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, and has gained national and international recognition for the accuracy of his predictions in sports and politics.

Comments

[crookedcountyillinois]

01:48 AM on 09/10/2010

Brady's dumber than rocks.

But I don't see how anyone wins on the promise of a tax increase...

[poomplet]

12:11 PM on 09/09/2010

If you don't just admit Brady is a 100% lock, you're going to look VERY politically-unastute, naive & 'ostrich-like' in November. Your HufffPo cred will be nil.

I hate him...I've been screaming that here since the primaries...but that doesn't mean I'm going to put my fingers in my ears & go "LA-LA-LA-LA...I CAN'T HEAR YOU!".

Brady's our next governor....period. Quinn's made terrible decisions/statements, both as acting gov & as a candidate. He cannot...WILL NOT...win.

So you might wanna address your opinion-shaping/mind-changing efforts at the races that MIGHT be toss-ups; Kirk v. Don Giablagstrogurris & the House races, if you want to stave off a complete IL-GOP rout in November.

And besides, given 100% Dem control of state government, what do you think Brady will, or CAN, actually DO to forward any of his battsheet-fundie agenda?

NOTHING!!! He will be impotent....Madigan & others will act & talk as if Brady's literally invisible. This will be HILARIOUS to watch, and it won't effect how our government will function one iota.

THAT, unfortunately, is kinda sad, because our state government is currently a corrupt, squabbling dictatorship. It would take a charasmatic, forward-thinking, HONEST Democratic governor to actually change anything. But if such a person actually existed, he/she would never have a PRAYER of winning a primary.

[ckdogs]

10:19 AM on 09/09/2010

I also wonder how they do these polls. I've been doing calling for some candidates. 97% of people don't answer their phones, and of the few that do, most just hang up at the first word of a political call or poll.

[fifthmansix]

10:58 PM on 09/08/2010

brady is an idoit and so is every other republican i've talked to . if he wins illinois will lose big time. more tax cuts for the rich and screw the state workers for this brainless spoiled brat.

[mcartri]

10:31 PM on 09/08/2010

There is an 86.7% chance you will not recognize the state of Illinois for the next 4-years. Thought it's been bad? You ain't seen nothing. Vote Brady & you can explain to all the trip down the abyss is just a carnival ride.

[Aldyth]

08:20 AM on 09/09/2010

Have you noticed that Madigan, Cullerton, and the Democratic big guns haven't come out to back Quinn big time?

It's because Quinn's incompetence is a drag on the Democratic Party. The Democrats will still hold the majority in the House and Senate when all is said and done. In January, they're going to pass a big tax increase. My prediction: raise it from 3% to 4.5% so that they can start to drag Illinois government out of debt. They'll figure that the voters won't remember in two years when they come due for re-election.

If Brady wins, he's the enemy and the Democratic legislature will simply ignore him and do what they please. Brady won't get any bills passed. His cabinet will all be Democrats, so he won't get any help there.

If Quinn wins, his obvious incompetence will drag the Democrats down for four more years. I suspect that Madigan and Cullerton really want him gone. Then, they don't have to spend four years pretending to respect the governor.

[madHenry]

08:03 PM on 09/08/2010

No one, absolutely NO ONE knows how this race will end. Pat Quinn has shot himself in the foot on several occasions since rising to the governor's chair, starting with accepting "donations" for a "meet with the governor" session early in his short tenure. Since that ignominious beginning, it hasn't gotten to much better. Appearances matter, and he seems rudderless, wishy-washy, malleable and maybe not too bright. Then there's Brady. The man is an unsuccesful businessman; just what we need with a $13 billion deficit over our heads. Ten percent across the board cut in state programs, Bill? Really? How about state police and crime labs; them too? Ummmmmmm. And given our penchant to fund education through the property tax, does that include state aid to school districts, especially poor districts?

We are faced with a HUGE dilemma in this state. It's just depressing knowing that you have a choice between tweedle-dum and tweedle-dummerer.

[mcartri]

10:39 PM on 09/08/2010

Actually, the Green Party candidate, Whitney, is easily the best choice. The down side is in the fixed, corrupted two-party system, he can't win. I look at as a Russian Roulette event. Brady's the fully loaded pistol, Quinn's half-loaded & Whitney has one shell, but the gun is missing. I'll do the Quinn Spin & hope for the best. Brady is a dead end for sure.

[RedWhiteandBlueState]

07:24 PM on 09/08/2010

I'm afraid Nate Silver has been incorporated into the MSM borg. I'd say his fame is at 13 minutes and counting.

[ktsunspark]

08:06 PM on 09/08/2010

Nate is normally very reliable. But he'd better be WAY off base this time.

[IllinoisObama]

06:55 PM on 09/08/2010

This guy polling is nuts

[mamala4]

10:04 AM on 09/09/2010

good one.

[IllinoisObama]

06:54 PM on 09/08/2010

who did they poll - people in the burbs?

[tissa]

07:08 PM on 09/08/2010

These polls coming out are clearly, politically motivated...they probably did the poll at a Tea Party event in IL.

[IllinoisObama]

07:10 PM on 09/08/2010

I predict Alexi will beat Kirk by 8 points
and Brady will lose by 10 points

[BVictor1]

07:24 PM on 09/08/2010

Pretty much and those south of I-80

[tissa]

06:45 PM on 09/08/2010

Yeah, that is not going to happen....this guy is a Tea Party N utjob.

The people of IL are not going to have it. Pat Quinn will win.

[ktsunspark]

08:07 PM on 09/08/2010

Not exactly the best thing that could happen. But since he's our only choice... This is not the election to cast a protest vote for the Greens (which is what I did last time)...

[LeaderofMen]

05:17 PM on 09/08/2010

If Bill Brady becomes IL's governor, you can expect a total and complete sell out to corporate interests over the people of IL.

Oh, and you can be ASSURED that women and gays will find themselves in the back of the bus. That is Brady's CLEAR and strident record.

[IllinoisObama]

06:56 PM on 09/08/2010

I lived in MO when Ashcroft was gov.
Couldn't buy liquor on sunday
Car dealers couldn't work on Sundays
this will be Brady
and expect an anti choice war

[poomplet]

01:09 PM on 09/09/2010

Oh, come on!!!

MO's state government isn't/wasn't ever 110% controlled by one party.

Illinois IS....Brady won't be able to pass a resolution saying "Puppies Are Cute", much less even suggest a molecule of change to our pro-choice laws.

[poomplet]

01:17 PM on 09/09/2010

Oh...car dealers can't work on Sunday's in Illinois...or MANY other states. It's been like that for decades.

And this hasn't been for religious reasons for a long time. This restriction prevents dealerships who WANT to stay open 7 days from gaining a competitive advantage of those that wish to be closed & give their workers a day off. And it also prevents shoppers from being able to do too much competitive shopping (conveniently....so it increases the likelyhood they'll buy from the 1st-2nd dealership they visit.

Ergo, most car dealers SUPPORT these laws, which at face value seem to reduce their potential income.

[greenie 61]

05:16 PM on 09/08/2010

"In Illinois, however, Republicans are looking to take the keys for the first time in a long time."

yeah, ever since their last governor got indicted & imprisoned. Maybe their referring to the jailhouse keys.

[IllinoisObama]

07:12 PM on 09/08/2010

shows that they no nothing about IL politics
Gop have many more years at gov. than dems
h8te those national nuts thinking they know IL

[greenie 61]

07:30 PM on 09/08/2010

Right there with ya. What they fail to realize is that many of us in Illinois haven't forgotten *how* we got into such a quandary to begin with, & who was responsible for it. Lyin' Ryan, Pate Phillips & the IDOT Taj Mahal immediately come to mind.

[BVictor1]

07:26 PM on 09/08/2010

Well, the former democratic governor isn't following too far in their footsteps.

[greenie 61]

07:42 PM on 09/08/2010

Here's the difference:

We (his own party), immediately & unanimously sent him packing.

The Illinois gop left Lyin' Ryan in office to fester & continued to allow our state to go down the financial drain. I guess those 'good-ol'-boys' would rather let our state sink into the abyss than demand for him to step down & allow Lt. Gov. Woods take over the reins. Dumb move on their part.

[Soundofthunder]

05:02 PM on 09/08/2010

His first act will be to cut my mother's teacher's pension, because she made too much money as a teacher getting paid 70% of what a man is paid, and because the kids weren't always in the room.

S

[Mark Harker]

06:00 PM on 09/08/2010

no sympathy.

[greenie 61]

07:32 PM on 09/08/2010

No brains.

[tones]

04:59 PM on 09/08/2010

This is becoming even more scary with the fact that Daley wont be there to rell Brady in

[ebroadcast]

04:48 PM on 09/08/2010

When are we going to have someone worth an ounce of pi$$ to vote for in this state?

[BVictor1]

07:27 PM on 09/08/2010

that a trick question?