The Recession Is OVER, Says Economic Panel

(AP, JEANNINE AVERSA): It's official: The longest recession the country has endured since World War II ended in June 2009, according to a group that dates the beginning and end of recessions.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, a panel of academic economists based in Cambridge, Mass., says the recession lasted 18 months. It started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. That was the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar downturns were those in 1973-1975 and in 1981-1982. Both of those lasted 16 months.

The decision makes official what many economists have believed for some time, that the recession ended in the summer of 2009. The economy started growing again in the July-to-September quarter of 2009, after a record four straight quarters of declines. Thus, the April-to-June quarter of 2009, marked the last quarter when the economy was shrinking. At that time, it contracted just 0.7 percent, after suffering through much deeper declines. That factored into the NBER's decision to pinpoint the end of the recession in June.

Any future downturn in the economy would now mark the start of a new recession, not the continuation of the December 2007 recession, NBER said. That's important because if the economy starts shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a "double-dip" recession. For many economists, the last time that happened was in 1981-82.

The NBER normally takes its time in declaring a recession has started or ended.

For instance, the NBER announced in December 2008 that the recession had actually started one year earlier, in December 2007.

Similarly, it declared in July 2003 that the 2001 recession was over. It actually ended 20 months earlier, in November 2001.

Its determination is of interest to economic historians - and political leaders. Recessions that occur on their watch pose political risks.

In President George W. Bush's eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second one started in December 2007.

NBER's decision means little to ordinary Americans now muddling through a sluggish economic recovery and a weak jobs market. Unemployment is 9.6 percent and has been stuck at high levels since the recession ended.

READ the NBER's full release:

sept2010

Comments

[TonkaTruck]

10:05 PM on 09/22/2010

And as for the wealthy, they would say, "what recession?" as they watched the transfer of wealth trickle their way. . .

[vippy]

03:19 PM on 09/22/2010

The FED claims today that "recovery" continues to slow!  What more proof do we need?

[vippy]

03:12 PM on 09/22/2010

 
The recession may be over but we are in a depression now.  Texas's Rick Perry is asking the FED for flood help and in August more jobs were lost including Texas..  We know FEDEX is llaying off big time and companies are still merging. If the recession is over then where is the spending?  The media lies to us, elections are coming and they want to manipulate reality!

[kizzie]

01:01 PM on 09/22/2010

The recession is over for the banks and Wall St, but not for middle class and the pooor!!!
We are in a depression with no jobs being created, and yet we pay the most.
Oh, I forgot, the top 2% can buy yachts again!!!

[rkimball]

05:52 AM on 09/22/2010

Some of these economic experts from Washington needs to come down here to my area & tell the folks that. Convince them they are not foreclosed, jobless, cold & hungry. It must be all in their heads.

[MeinNH]

09:33 AM on 09/22/2010

I hear you and feel the same way!

[PoliticalEnnui]

10:17 AM on 09/22/2010

What you describe is economic stagnation, not recession. I know 'stagnation' doesn't seem to carry in it the same level of frustration and desperation that 'recession' seems to, but it is a more accurate term. Things have stagnated after a very deep recession. For this to continue to be a recession, it would have to continue to get worse (God forbid), rather than stay leveled off.

For as long as this recession lasted, a pause of about a year, followed by a 'double-dip' would suggest a 2nd recession, but also arguably a 'depression'. We'll see once seasonal unemployment kicks in if things are merely stuck in a cyclical with a higher level of structural unemployment than we've seen since the 1980s, or if we're really in a prolonged phase of contraction.

What is very arguable, however, is that using GDP to determine whether the 'recession' continues is very misleading. After all, there are large corporations showing record profits that skew the numbers. Take a look at wage disparity since the 1980s and it seems pretty clear there are 2 economies at work: one that is sheltered from the recession and one that isn't. And some wonder why there is talk about letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the top 1 - 2%.

[PoliticalEnnui]

09:54 PM on 09/21/2010

The recession is considered over because the economy, ON BALANCE, is no longer shrinking. The problem is that the only thing we have to show for growth is a dead cat bounce. Still, one year is enough time to determine whether or not the economy continues to recede. Now, however, we have another problem that won't be easily solved, no matter who is in charge of the government: jobs.

And though the GOP and TP will argue that all we need are more tax cuts, the real problem is a log jam of consumer spending--or non-spending. What they won't admit is that the only thing keeping the economy afloat was a plethora of retail and service employment keeping people off public assistance, but simultaneously stagnating wages. Every trick in the book was used to give the impression of a thriving economy, mainly by pointing to the same arbitrary parameters telling us the recession is over, only back then it was telling us that the economy was doing great because the top earners were raking in so much and housing prices were unrealistic. But just like Wile E. Coyote, we looked down and saw that nothing was propping us up.

Don't worry, the GOP will privatize social security, scrap HCR, stop all entitlement spending, then ask you to swallow the Blue Pill, promising you a nice juicy steak while they go back to using you as economic cattle.

[right Alice]

03:58 PM on 09/21/2010

Why are they saying this when the amount of Americans
living in poverty is on the rise -- now 1 in 7.

Is this the new 'meme' that is destined to catch on so that
the plea for Bush's tax cuts for the rich will suddenly
become easy on the ears?

[Rusty Sanchez]

03:24 PM on 09/21/2010

If anything, high unemployment is being prolonged because paranoid teabaggers are diverting badly needed economic assets from real wealth and job creation to inflating the Republican Fear Machine driven gold bubble, which came about because the GOP used the housing bubble to push their anti-government, anti-Fed, anti-regulatory agenda, and get everybody convinced Obama and the democrats are socialists who are going to sell us out to China while Bernanke cranked the printing presses.

When the gold bubble bursts and the market corrects it to around $600 an ounce, investors will be scrambling to find real investments. That's where jobs will come in!

[yomamasmama]

04:10 PM on 09/21/2010

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

[haljett]

02:50 PM on 09/21/2010

Someone should tell my friends who continue to be out of work and looking for jobs.

[dylbud]

01:14 PM on 09/21/2010

I'm glad I have the news to tell me that the recession is over. Come to think of it, it was the news that told me we were in it in the first place. I should have just unplugged myself from everything -- I could have avoided 22 months of severe depression.

[OldTulsan]

12:58 PM on 09/21/2010

Here's the EPI's take on NBER's announcement..

http://www.epi.org/quick_takes/entry/recession_is_over_but_not_the_unemployment_crisis/
Recession is over, but not the unemployment crisis

"Today the National Bureau of Economic Research determined that the recession officially ended in June 2009. While this statement was in line with expectations, it should be remembered that the unemployment rate in June of 2009 stood at 9.5%.
In August of 2010, a full 14 months later, the unemployment rate was 9.6%. The recession may be over, but the real work of recovery has just begun. --Josh Bivens"

[nastybastard]

12:51 PM on 09/21/2010

Saw some weird stuff yesterday.
Saw a Mexican driving a German car with a bumper sticker made in China that said proud to be an American.
I remember when the saying was buy American - Now the saying is Buy America. I'm also old enough to remember when penny candy was only a nickel.
The new mantra of our elected officials should be - - - Support an American Corporation - Buy products made in China.

[IWantAJob]

04:14 PM on 09/21/2010

Or why not just"Support Communism - Buy American"

[Bill Wagner]

11:32 AM on 09/21/2010

This recession is over crap is propaganda. Yeah technically by numbers it may be true, and possibly it is artificially over because of the stimulus, but because of the systematic deconstruction of this economy over the last 2 decades (GATT and NAFTA going through in the 90's under Slick Willy) we will never recover. The entire system needs to change and the big government needs to go out with The Federal Reserve, which is the root cause of this whole mess. Until we address these two issues, nothing will change.

[ljc]

10:48 AM on 09/21/2010

the prime minister’s office.

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced yesterday that the recession that started in December 2007 ended more than a year ago, in June 2009. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi noted that the timing coincided with the peak of stimulus spending. “One conclusion is that the stimulus played an important role in bringing the recession to an end,” he said.

[DUSAA-1775]

09:34 AM on 09/22/2010

This is very good news. Obama and his wise men have successfully ended the recession. Thank God !!

[BetsyC]

10:09 AM on 09/21/2010

Issuing statements like this as well as taglines like the "Summer of Recovery" is dangerous. While the economic indicators may say this, perception is reality - and when people clearly perceive that we are in the dumps economically, these types of slogans and statements make their confidence in the administration falter.

[slocomgp]

10:40 AM on 09/21/2010

Kind of like mission impossible, except that goof was said by the president himself.