NM-Gov: 49% Martinez (R), 42% Denish (D) (AlbuquerqueJournal 9/27-30)

Albuquerque Journal
9/27-30/10; 941 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: live telephone interviews
(Albuquerque Journal release)

New Mexico

2010 Governor
49% Martinez (R), 42% Denish (D) (chart)

Comments

[Gopherguy23]

01:28 PM on 10/04/2010

I was reading an article by Cook and another by Rothenberg regarding the accuracy of media polls and polls conducted by intellectuals a few days ago. Essentially, both men say almost all of these polls aren't worth a grain of salt. Should pollster actually post polls by these organizations, or is there evidence that Cook and Rothenberg are wrong? Are at least some of these organizations considered good or reliable?

[AaronTX]

08:54 PM on 10/04/2010

Polls conducted by "intellectuals?" What do you mean?

I think CQ politics has a stronger grasp of the elections and they forecast significantly fewer gains than everyone else. If you go race by race you see a different picture than you do looking at the generic ballot. Doing that, you see losses basically in line with historic norms for a president's first mid-term. Looking at the generic ballot it looks like republicans will win a once in a century election a la 1932 or 1894.

I really don't know. I dislike hanging my hat on the generic ballot. Plus I find it hard to believe that so many democrats will not come out to vote at all. The generic ballot is predicting dem turnout lower than it's been in generations and republican turnout higher than it's been in generations.

My best guess is that reps gain in the 40s putting them in the 220s as far as house seats and senate will be small dem majority. Then we're back to where we were in 2000. The country is still highly polarized and never really quit. I think we'll see the effect of that taking hold once again after this election is over.

[Field Marshall]

01:01 PM on 10/04/2010

Saw the same Aaron. More important in the poll are the two congressional districts currently held by Dems both show movement towards the GOP. The poll shows the second district race with the GOP now leading by 1 and the first district with the Dem lead down to 7.

[AaronTX]

12:55 PM on 10/04/2010

About the same margin as the last AlbJo poll.