NY-Sen: 50% Gillibrand (D), 40% DioGuardi (R) (PPP 10/1-3)

Public POlicy Polling (D)
10/1-3/10; 592 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New York

2010 Senate (B)
50% Gillibrand (D), 40% DioGuardi (R) (chart)

2010 Senate (A)
59% Schumer (D), 37% Townsend (R) (chart)

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Comments

[Dave WI]

03:59 PM on 10/06/2010

Uphill battle obviously, but with DioGuardi at 32/24 and 44 with no opinion, there's some room for him to grow here.

[TJampel]

11:40 PM on 10/06/2010

So I suppose he can grow to 51% to Gillibrand's 50%; he'll get 110% of undecideds. If the exact same set of polling numbers were presented to you for Sestak vs Toomey and I said exactly what you just said you'd be entitled to a well deserved laugh at my expense. In fact, please feel free to call me on that any time in the future...if...I...say...anything as partisan as these comments.

And, yes, I know polling numbers go up and down. I've looked all the other numbers in this race and the average and it's quite different from Kasich's numbers, which have tanked noticeably of late. Gillibrand led big early on, DioGuardi created a bit if a splash for a while; now things are settling back to midway between where they once were (at the outset) and where they were at the very top of the bump.

[Dave WI]

11:57 PM on 10/06/2010

Two things though.
First, Sestak is more widely known that DioGuardi. A current member of the House as compared to one from 20 years ago.
Second, Sestak had a primary way back in early summer, NY just had theirs a few weeks ago.
You really don't see the difference?
Yes, obviously that scenario sees Gillibrand dropping some support, but it's not like that hasn't happened anywhere this cycle. (Brady in Illinois, Blumenthal- though he seems to have pulled out of the skid, and a few more examples)

[Dave WI]

12:04 AM on 10/07/2010

Or, one of my favorites, the MA special election.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ma/10-ma-gov-ge-bvco.php?nr=1
Coakley at 53 two weeks out. What happened there? Those silly partisans, thinking she could possibly lose.
Again, I prefaced my initial post saying it's an uphill battle, longshot, what have you. But I feel more optimistic about this race than I do Delaware, and I do think it bears watching.

[StatsNpolls]

02:28 PM on 10/06/2010

Get rid of that (D) in this pollster's name, and it's a tie.