In Afghanistan, The Exit Plan Starts With 'If'

New York Times:

KABUL, Afghanistan -- After nine years of war, the endgame here has finally begun.

But exactly when the endgame itself will end seems anyone's guess.

The war in Afghanistan entered a new and possibly decisive stage last week, following statements by American officials encouraging Afghanistan's elected leaders and the Taliban's military commanders to reach a settlement to end the war. The Americans said they had gone as far as to help some insurgent leaders travel to Kabul to talk.

Read the whole story: New York Times

Comments

[General Armchair]

06:36 AM on 10/18/2010

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local-beat/9-Marines-From-Same-Regiment-Killed-in-Afghanistan--105105574.html

The story is about 9 Marines who have died in a single Marine Battalion, the 3rd Battalion of the 5th Marine Regiment, in just eight days of what must be quite horrific combat. Six of the fatalities came from two IED strikes, along with three apparent direct fire casualties in three separate attacks.

For an 800-person unit, along with what must be many wounded, this represents very heavy combat at this stage in the guerilla war, and I suspect evidence of Taliban strength rather than America squeezing the last full measure from the Taliban. I don't know where in Helmand Province the 3/5 Marines are deployed.

It's now October, after the "surge" has supposedly been battering the Taliban for months in Helmand, and for a US battalion to be hurt this badly in such a short time span has to call into question just how effective, militarily, the "surge" and COIN have been.

The whole point of the "surge" was to improve our (or Karzai's) bargaining position. I would say developments in the past year (including two fraudulent elections and the "bleeding ulcer" Marjah campaign) demonstrate fundamental weaknesses both in the Western military effort (COIN), and in the effectiveness of our non-credible "local partner."

In fact the year's combat has put us in a weaker bargaining position, not stronger.

[General Armchair]

09:24 AM on 10/19/2010

Yesterday the Pentagon released the name of the tenth Marine to die from the 3/5 Marines, on October 16th from an IED explostion.

[Boobuzuela]

10:21 PM on 10/17/2010

>The Pakistani Army and its spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, continue, by most accounts, to support the Taliban, despite receiving billions of dollars in American aid.

Funding both sides of the war. Only Lt. Milo Minderbinder could top that one.

BTW, the Taliban didn't strike America on 9-11.

They merely found themselves in a socio-political squeeze that would not ALLOW them to turn over Bin Ladin and his merry band of less than 100 Al-Q members.

So instead of sending in a single Special Forces team to "extract" Bin Ladin, or a nuke to get rid of ALL of 'em in a single blow, George W. Bush declared that "Anyone who is not for us is against us, " and sent in the troops.

Cornered at Tora Bora, Interservice infighting reportedly resulted in the SF teams needed to surround and capture Bin Ladin NOT getting sent until he'd already fled the area. (according to Jawbreaker)

Apparently Bushco decided at some point along the way the Taliban would make a convenient "enemy," because you can't have a war without an enemy, (and they treat women horribly) except now that we've figgered out we can't defeat them militarily, they must not be THAT much of an enemy, so, waddya say we negotiate with 'em instead.

Al-Quaida? Pffft. Who even remember's 'em? There simply aren't enough of 'em left alive to wage a war against.

Does that about summarize it?