Rasmussen Poll Shows 'Virtual Tie' In Colorado Senate Race

Democrats got some good news over the weekend in the form of a handful of encouraging polls in three Senate battlegrounds: Colorado, Washington and West Virginia. The most notable is a new Rasmussen automated poll in Colorado that finds what the pollster describes as a "virtual tie" between Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and Republican challenger Ken Buck.

In Colorado, Rasmussen shows Buck's lead over Bennet narrowing to just two percentage points (47% to 45%), the closest margin obtained by Rasmussen in the race so far this year. Although most surveys conducted in September had Buck leading by between 4 and 8 percentage points, a poll from Democratic affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) two weeks ago gave Bennet a one-point edge (46% to 45%) and an internal poll released at about the same time by the Bennet campaign showed him with a three-point advantage (44% to 41%).

The new surveys narrow Buck's lead on our standard trend estimate to less than four points (48.1% to 44.5%), just enough to move the race back into the toss-up category.

In Washington, a new Washington Poll of registered voters sponsored by public television and radio stations and conducted over the last two weeks by the University of Washington shows Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi by eight percentage points (50% to 42%). That margin is nearly identical to the findings of the most recent CNN/Time poll conducted at about the same time, slightly better than a recent SurveyUSA automated poll and slightly worse than the recent Elway poll, all of which showed Murray with nominal leads.

The Washington Poll is the only survey in the state released since the summer to screen for registered voters rather than a narrower subgroup of "likely voters." Although the results have varied widely, narrowing to likely voters typically produces a more Republican sample. That said, the final University of Washington polls in 2008 and 2006 slightly understated the margins actually won by Democrats Barack Obama, Christine Gregoire and Maria Cantwell.

The new survey brings Murray's lead on our standard trend estimate to just over four points (49.4% to 45.2%) -- enough to shift Washington back into the lean Democrat column.

Update: The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reports this morning that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has released results of an internal survey, conducted by Moore Information, that shows Rossi leading 47% to 46% among likely voters.

In West Virginia, a poll conducted by Orion Strategies for the Marshall University School of Journalism and Mass Communications released on Friday gave Democrat Joe Manchin a ten-point lead (48% to 38%) over Republican John Raese. The survey is the third in a week (including an internal Democratic poll) to show Manchin with a nominal lead, although it gave Manchin his biggest margin by far and produced the largest undecided percentage (12%). A CNN/Time poll released last week had the race tied (at 44%). Our trend estimate now gives Manchin a margin of just under three percentage points (47.3% to 44.4%), still in the toss-up range.

Republicans complained last week that the owner of Orion Strategies is a Democrat and campaign manager for a West Virginia Democratic congressional candidate. However, as Politico reported, Orion Strategies "has worked for both Democratic and non-partisan clients" in the past, and Marshall University also involved a Republican professor on their poll as a consultant.

Follow Mark Blumenthal and HuffPost Pollster on Twitter.

Correction: The original version of this story misstated the sponsorship of the Washington Poll.

Comments

[terri autorino]

03:38 AM on 10/21/2010

If the argument is "disappointment" in Obama; remind voters that he HAS worked very hard for Americans since the day he took office..... and that he would have accomplished even more if not for the immature and UN-AMERICAN "Just Say No" Republican mentality.

President Obama is the most honorable and intelligent person we will ever have as our president.

OBAMA/BALDWIN 2012!!!

[RoofinReality]

12:10 PM on 10/21/2010

Don't know about ever, but he's been a good President in the face of some unbelievably trying times. The hole he's helped us dig out of us was deep.

[Artemis34]

01:48 PM on 10/20/2010

When everyone votes, Republicans lose. So vote!

This is the real reason they oppose groups like the League of Women Voters and ACORN, they register voters and Republicans want to suppress the vote.

[Artemis34]

01:45 PM on 10/20/2010

Rasmussen is conservative cr@p.

[RWCOLE]

12:32 PM on 10/20/2010

Rasmussen represents a disproportionate percentage of the data points for many of these races. Does that give Scottie a disproportionate influence on the "trend estimate". Shouldn't some adjustment be made for this- and for his notorious pro gooper bias? (er- "house effect")

[Jdaddy1951]

10:18 AM on 10/20/2010

OK, since this is the Rasmussen Poll, which traditionally skews its questions and results so it will favor Republicans, can we assume that in reality, Democrats are doing 3 to 5 percentage points better than the results here show?

[hawkny]

08:32 AM on 10/20/2010

Here is the lowdown on Rasmussen..
(Remember the adage about liars....one will tell a lie, the others will swear to it)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

[searles7]

10:23 PM on 10/19/2010

The best piece of news that I've heard in weeks is that all of the polls are skewed in error toward Republicans by from 2-6% because the polls are primarily based upon calls to people with home telephones and who chose intentionally to stay off the no-call list (interesting group). That means virtually no young people who use almost exclusively cell phones and who are more likely to vote Democrat.

[Jerboy]

07:45 PM on 10/19/2010

"My name is Buck, and I like to.... pluck defeat from the jaws of victory..."

[stpmdn]

05:20 PM on 10/19/2010

check out www.buckingcolorado.com to learn all about ken buck

[Annintexas]

04:20 PM on 10/19/2010

PPP poll shows Carly within 2 points now of Boxer.

[situationcritical]

07:51 PM on 10/19/2010

Boxer will win. BIG TIME.

[luvobama]

07:54 PM on 10/19/2010

As will Jerry Brown.

I love these st00pid baggers, who hail from the most backward states in our country, predicting what we Californians are going to choose.

[betsyblue]

04:10 PM on 10/19/2010

Hopefully, Buck's numbers will drop now that he said on Meet the Press that homosexuality "is a choice." Buck is extremely out-of-touch!!!

[stpmdn]

05:20 PM on 10/19/2010

I think the interviewer should have asked him, do you sometimes wake up in the morning and think you know I'd really like to suck a d$$k today but I choose not to.

[Vetinari]

09:22 PM on 10/19/2010

well duh! He is a republican...

[marilyn 63]

03:17 PM on 10/19/2010

everyone ignore these rethug haters on here they are probably payed by foreign countries to put the same hot mess back in to destroy this country. don't look at these phony polls leading people down the wrong path..

[Billyguitar]

11:35 AM on 10/19/2010

If Rassmussen says it's a tie, then Bennet's actually up 5 points.

[bannorhill]

07:30 PM on 10/19/2010

Rasmussen most accuratly predicted the 2008 Presidential election.

[Justin Gibson]

03:52 AM on 10/20/2010

Repubmussen is NOT a trusted polling company.

[mahhala]

11:00 AM on 10/19/2010

Our house has already proudly voted for Bennett ...despite the comments here he IS the best candidate in the field.

In my life, I have had some very awkward votes to make. Living in a fascist state governed my an elitist minority I once had the choice to vote right, right of right, and so far right one could hear the jack boots. I decided I could not in all good consciousness vote for anyone. Severely scolded and chastised by a de-enfranchised friend (no vote in the country of his birth) who firmly believed in peaceful change through the ballot box. He said one must exercise one’s opportunity to vote even if the choices are not to one’s liking or beliefs 'cause if you don’t you have to live by the outcome and cannot change the future no matter how hopeless the situation seems at the time.

We also had the option to spoil the ballot ... they were included in the totals. I spoilt my vote by writing a banned political slogan across the ballot ... for three reasons ... the options presented to me were completely unacceptable; I wanted to test to see if my vote was truly private and secret (for weeks after I waited for the security police to come knocking on my door); and I truly believed the apartheid regime should free Nelson Mandela. Twenty-four years later, he became president.

[highplainslawyer]

10:38 AM on 10/19/2010

Does it make any difference? In a recent Denver Post debate, about the only area of disagreement between the two was whether the Health Care mandate was constitutional. Great! This issue eventually will be decided by the Supreme Court.

Otherwise, there isn't a hair's difference between the two, at least on things that matter. Neither one will be willing to spend on the things that need to be spent on to lower unemployment and reduce the stress on middle class Americans.

Let them get their votes from the millionaires they support. This Colorado voter won't vote for either until they start supporting the interests of ordinary Coloradans.

[stpmdn]

05:21 PM on 10/19/2010

check out www.buckingcolorado.com and you'll see the differences. There are a lot.