Democrats Running Closer In Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin

Democrats got a boost of good news yesterday in a batch of new tracking polls that show previously written-off Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin running significantly closer to their Republican opponents. New polls yesterday also confirmed close margins in critical battlegrounds like Washington and West Virginia, but a Democratic comeback in either Pennsylvania, Colorado or Wisconsin would all but end Republican hopes to gain a majority in the U.S. Senate.

In Pennsylvania, two new surveys from the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call and from Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling (PPP) confirm the significant tightening in the race first indicated by a set of internal Democratic party polls released last week. The PPP poll shows Democrat Joe Sestak edging Republican Pat Toomey's by a single percentage point (46% to 45%), while the smaller sample Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Sestak with a three-point advantage (44% to 41%). That result represents a ten-point net shift from Muhlenberg's last poll in early October. On the other hand, a Rasmussen poll conducted last week still showed Toomey leading by 10 points (49% to 39%).

Our standard trend estimate, which takes all of these surveys into account, now shows Toomey leading by less than four points (46.1% to 42.6%), just a whisker from toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate, which puts greater weight on the four most recent polls, shows Sestak ahead by a toss-up 1.8 point margin (44.6% to 42.8%).

Three new polls in Colorado also show a similar narrowing of Republican Ken Buck's previous advantage over Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey shows Buck's lead down to 2 percentage points (47% to 45%), while a survey by Rasmussen subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News gives Buck a one point edge (46% to 45%). Meanwhile, a live interviewer survey by Reuters/Ipsos gave Buck a 3-point advantage (48% to 45%). Previous Rasmussen and Fox surveys conducted two and three weeks ago showed Buck leading by 5 and 4 points respectively; Ipsos showed Buck leading by 9 in late August.

The new polls narrow Buck's lead on our Colorado trend estimate to just 3.2 points (47.9% to 44.7%), enough to move Colorado into toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate (shown below) reduces Buck's margin to less than two points (46.9% to 45.2%).

In Wisconsin, a survey of 402 likely voters conducted by St. Norbert College for Wisconsin Public Radio finds Republican Ron Johnson just two points ahead of Democratic Senator Russ Feingold (49% to 47%). That result is similar to internal tracking poll results released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) over the past two weeks, but is narrower than three polls from CNN/Time, Reuters/Ipsos and Rasmussen conducted early last week.

Our Wisconsin trend estimate continues to give Johnson a 6.2 point lead (50.8% to 44.6%), roughly three points narrower than in early October.

In Missouri, A new Fox News/Pulse survey conducted on Saturday but released yesterday shows Republican Roy Blunt leading Democrat Robin Carnahan by six points (49% to 43%). That result is similar to the five-point Blunt advantage on a Carnahan-sponsored PPP poll released on Monday. Previous independent polling, mostly by Rasmussen and Fox/Pulse, showed Blunt with leads of 8 or more points, though internal Democratic campaign polls released in September gave Blunt a four-point edge.

Our standard trend estimate gives Blunt an eight-point lead (49.5% to 41.3%), down a point from a week ago. Our more sensitive estimate narrows that lead to just over six (47.8% to 41.6%)

In Washington, a new PPP automated survey released yesterday gives Democratic Senator Patty Murray a two-point advantage (49% to 47%) over Republican challenger Dino Rossi. Meanwhile, a live-interviewer Marist/McClatchy News survey out just this morning gives Murray a one point edge (49% to 48%). Those margins are well within sampling error of the two automated polls conducted in the last week by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, but closer than on two live-interviewer polls conducted a few days earlier by the University of Washington, CNN/Time and the Elway Poll. All six surveys show Murray leading, but an internal poll conducted last week by Moore Information for the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (RSCC) shows Rossi with one-point edge.

Our trend estimate now gives Murray a two-and-a-half point lead (48.6% to 46.1%).

In West Virginia, a new Fox/Pulse automated survey gives Republican John Raese a three-point edge over Democrat Joe Manchin (48% to 45%), a slightly narrower margin than on previous surveys by Fox/Pulse and Rasmussen (which use virtually identical methodologies). Three polls released last week showed margins ranging from a CNN/Time poll showing a dead-even race to a Marshall University/Orion survey showing Manchin leading by ten points. Our standard trend estimate gives Manchin a toss-up level 2.4 point advantage (46.9% to 44.5%).

Follow Mark Blumenthal and HuffPost Pollster on Twitter

Correction: The original version of this article incorrectly reported that Joe Sestak was a percentage point behind on the PPP Pennsylvania survey was rather than a point ahead.

Comments

[USNDC]

02:35 PM on 10/25/2010

(CNSNews.com) - When Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) gave her inaugural address as speaker of the House in 2007, she vowed there would be “no new deficit spending.” Since that day, the national debt has increased by $5 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

[Meldy1]

04:09 AM on 10/25/2010

they predicted in 2008 that hillary will win!Until fox evil news is on the scene covering,don't believe any polls right now,but the DEMS are narrowing margins in many cities..

[novo organon]

11:00 AM on 10/22/2010

Just like big money moorchers who need protection from the Nanny State through bailouts and subsidies. I love your "logical" "Illogicality." I'd rather you be honest and admit the ideal society you dream of, which is feudalism. American Society controlled by Private Tyrants who make it no secret in how they feel about democracy.

[marilyn 63]

05:22 PM on 10/21/2010

hey trolls where are you now??? singing desperations bout to get me!!

[dems08]

04:02 PM on 10/21/2010

Dylan Ratigan's show/msnbc:

"Why some people are nervous about strong women in power."

(while showing pix of McDonnell and Fiorina!)

[Schalaine]

07:47 PM on 10/21/2010

More of that liberal bias I've heard so much about, but never seen. How can you utter this statement and not have a bolt of lightning just strike!

[theocrat]

01:14 PM on 10/21/2010

Buck, along with Johnson, Angle, Miller, Rubio, Toomey, etc., are every bit as crazy as Christine O'Donnell and Carl Paladino, yet they manage to somehow be more acceptable to the voters. This shows how little thought or research the average voter gives before they decide on who to support.

[rebelriser]

10:57 AM on 10/21/2010

The party of "NO," lies, inuendos and which brough back Karl Rove to do his dirty tricks is not deserving of our trust in their poll results. And anyone who believes them must believe in fairytales too. We can be certain they're doctoring the poll questions as well as the results. Haven't you noticed the huge difference in their polls compared to others?

[Deltalk]

09:28 AM on 10/21/2010

Latrest Poll: October 21 2010

Pennsylvania Senate

Sestak vs. Toomey

Quinnipiac

Toomey = 48

Sestak = 46

Toomey +2

[R Car]

12:41 PM on 10/21/2010

Dem disregard all the 2010 polls and get out and vote on November 2, 2010. It's obvious, there is a concerted effort by the our corporate MSM, the GOP, corporations and Gallop and other polling services to keep dems from voting on November 2, 2010.

Gallup's Likely Voter Model Has Fatal Flaw - NDN Challenges Gallup To Revise or Drop its 2010 Election Polling

http://ndn.org/blog/2010/10/gallups-likely-voter-model-has-fatal-flaw-ndn-challenges-gallup-revise-or-drop-its-2010


Gallup Scandal. Urged to STOP Polling Immediately.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/10/21/912204/-Gallup-Scandal.-Urged-to-STOP-Polling-Immediately

[G52]

05:18 AM on 10/21/2010

What I have heard is that all these polls could be off by the fact that a lot of them are being done with robo-calls through LANDLINES ONLY!

It seems to have to do with cost since it is cheaper than a cell phone poll.

I think this gives Dems an even bigger edge!

[rebelriser]

11:01 AM on 10/21/2010

Good for you! This is the talk I like to hear, not the doom and gloom about Republican over rated takeover.

[Starnz]

03:17 AM on 10/21/2010

Should be fun watching the election results roll in. Still think Toomey will win because I'm a little wary of the recent polling in Pennsylvania. PPP has not always been the most reliable and I'm not too familiar with Morning Call Tracking. I want to see what Rasmussen, Reuters, Gallup, etc find in the next week. However, Colorado is definitely tightening up. In a month Rasmussen has went from Buck +8 to +2.

[rebelriser]

11:02 AM on 10/21/2010

Wishful thinking? Or Limbaugh lies?

[terri autorino]

03:11 AM on 10/21/2010

If the argument is "disappointment" in Obama; remind voters that he HAS worked very hard for Americans since the day he took office..... and that he would have accomplished even more if not for the immature and UN-AMERICAN "Just Say No" Republican mentality.

President Obama is the most honorable and intelligent person we will ever have as our president.

OBAMA/BALDWIN 2012!!!

[Lisalu]

01:13 AM on 10/21/2010

I think the pollsters, the pundits and the tea bgger /republicans are all in for shock post election. There is a huge number of people who are watching these repulican fools falling all over themselves for the opportunity to say stupid things and are going to vote in droves. If you are looking for some positive info to help people to the polls try these.
1. www.obamaa­chievement­s.org it documents Obamas accomplishments in office despite the party of NO constantly trying to thwart him.
2. www.gen-we.org this is a site for young people to organize and develop innovative political changes geared towards saving America and the planet.
3. http://www­.youtube.c­om/watch?v­=4O-vsq48Z­oU This is a documentary by NOVA detailing the court case that threw Itelligent Design out of the classroom, because it was proven in court that Itelligent Design is not science, but creationis­m/religion dressed up as science.
4. http://cro­oksandliar­s.com/jon-­perr/gop-w­ins-filibu­ster-gold-­medal This one documents the outragous number of republican filibusters aimed at shutting down government and attempting to force Obamas failure.

Vote Vote Vote - these republicans have gone beyond a joke and need to be shown in no uncertain terms that Americans are not interested in devolving into a religous nation where a one belief system determines the health, social, cultural and educational standards of everyone!

[rebelriser]

11:12 AM on 10/21/2010

Yes, Yes, ALL possible Democratic voters, go and vote so we can prove the Republicans are wrong. Vote to change the epic of Big business, corporates trying to control elections & our voting.

[radar17]

01:00 AM on 10/21/2010

I am now hoping the Republicans don't take back the house or senate so when stuff really goes South we can blame Obama and the Dems in 2012.

[ghee99]

01:41 AM on 10/21/2010

yeah, that is a danger...

that the republicans take over the house and senate,

and through fiscal discipline limit obama's profligate spending

with the result that the economy rebounds (as was the case in 94)

and then obama winds up getting the credit in 2012.

hard to say, what would be better for the country as a whole,

for obama to take america into the crapper, which would has a short term negative effect

but then cause (ideally) the final nail to be put in the coffin of the democratic socialism of obama

or....

would it be better for the republicans to stop obama now,

and hope that the american voter (with their historically short memory) will remember that it was the republicans who saved the day?

its a tough choice....

[dawgspiel]

05:11 AM on 10/21/2010

Don't think there's much danger of that. Republicans have demonstrated time and again that they have no concept of fiscal discipline. Their record from Reagan forward is dismal.

[lorenzo48]

10:59 AM on 10/21/2010

Yeah lets get the Republicants back in power. 20% unemployment, offshore the entire workforce and double the national debt again. They almost got us into a full blown depression last time around, so lets deregulate the banks and brokers again, lets invade Iran on a BS story cause you can never have enough war, lets eliminate the minimum wage so we can re institute slavery, and we definately need more tax cuts for billionaires, in fact I say why should a billionaire have to pay any taxes and why should his company have to pay their employees or provide benefits, its downright un american.

[BusstaBrown]

12:30 AM on 10/21/2010

Surprise me with a Rasmussen poll result that shows a Democrat leading. Can you say Fox News? Sorry Rasmussen, but the report of a Republican avalanche appears to be a bit premature.

[HukaShakaHukaHuka]

11:50 PM on 10/20/2010

Ron Johnson will make Wisconsin earlier U.S. senator Joseph Raymond McCarthy (1947-1957) very proud.

[madisonhack]

07:24 AM on 10/22/2010

Probably, but he isn't going to prevail in November.

Feingold has a very high approval rating in Wisconsin. That is inconsistent with an incumbent who is going to lose his/her seat. So, that tells me that pollsters aren't talking to an honest sampling of likely voters or telling the whole story. I predict Feingold by + 2 points.

[jaws51]

10:14 AM on 10/22/2010

Johnson is loosing steam in Wisc. His ads are all about him or all about mud slinging Feingold. The man is clearly not strong on any issue and has a poor platform. Voters are waking up and seeing him for what he really is - weak. I know Feingold will win!