WASHINGTON - Two years ago, Barack Obama united American politics as no one had done in decades. Next week -- once the vote is in -- American politics will lay broken in at least five uneasy pieces. The blame game for Democratic losses already has begun and the explanations include an intractable Great Recession, a legacy of rising public debt, Republican cynicism and the mistakes of the president. But even before glancing back, it's worth looking ahead, because the landscape is clear. The simple, personal narrative of presidential hope, which won Obama the first semi-landslide in years and clear majorities in Congress, will be replaced by a complex, fragmented, parliamentary-style mess, with multiple, gridlock-inducing power centers -- of which the White House is only (barely) one. Here is the list, with their leaders, outlook and centers of operation:
- ROVIANS: The new conventional wisdom is that there is no GOP Establishment any more. As usual, the CW is wrong. Of course there is a Republican Establishment -- it's Karl Rove. An innovator technically, Rove is the past master of directing populist resentment against government and away from corporate business. Trained originally in the cut and thrust of direct mail (the precursor of attack tweets), and possessing a bulging list of high-roller contacts, he has been the de facto national manager of the GOP's 2010 campaign. Rove is at one with mainstream-conservative Hill leaders, who backed President George W. Bush's TARP bailout (and, in the process, spawned the Tea Party). The Establishment's goal now is to humor the Tea Party, but not at the expense of corporate America or at the risk of seeming too eager to dismantle Social Security. Rove won't sign on to a 2012 campaign early, but his history and his contacts suggest that he could go with former Gov. Mitt Romney, and may even have a ticket in mind: Romney and Mississippi Gov. (and Rove protégé) Haley Barbour. Headquarters: the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, with main auxiliary clubhouses in Dallas and Houston.
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