New PPP Polls Favor Joe Manchin, Show Michael Bennet Closing

Monday was likely the calm before the polling storm, but two new automated Senate polls from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) in Colorado and West Virginia provide Democrats with some encouraging news, as they confirm a neck-and-neck battle in Colorado and a possible rebound by Democrat Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Meanwhile, the daily tracking poll in Pennsylvania bounces back toward Republican Pat Toomey.

In West Virginia, a new automated survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Democrat Joe Manchin with a six-point lead (50% to 44%) over Republican John Raese, a result similar to a Manchin campaign internal poll released over the weekend. As noted yesterday, we have seen a consistent difference in West Virginia between the automated polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports and its Pulse Opinion Research subsidiary (for Fox News), which typically give Raese the advantage, and the other polls, which are typically better for Manchin. As such, this week's coming releases from Rasmussen may tip the balance back to Raese, but for now, Manchin holds a slightly better than two point advantage on our trend estimate (47.7% to 45.5%), enough to classify West Virginia as "lean Democrat."

In Colorado, another PPP survey yields exactly the same result -- a 47% to 47% tie -- as the automated poll by SurveyUSA and the Denver Post released over the weekend. Republican Ken Buck has led Democratic Senator Michael Bennet on our trend estimate all year long, but the new polls narrow Buck's lead to roughly one percentage point (46.9% to 45.7%) and his probability of winning to just 64%, well within what we consider the "toss-up" range. For the moment, Colorado stands as the second closest Senate race in the nation, just a whisker behind the race in Illinois.

In Pennsylvania, the latest update of Muhlenberg University's daily tracking poll now shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Democrat Joe Sestak by eight points (48% to 40%). Muhlenberg's first batch of interviews a week ago gave Sestak a three-point edge (44% to 41%). Toomey's lead on our trend estimate is now slightly better than two-points (46.6% to 44.4%), enough to rate Pennsylvania as "lean Republican."

Each new release of the Muhlenberg tracking poll is based on just 400 interviews, with a margin of error of +/-5%, so their daily numbers will bounce around. Over the full 10 days of their tracking so far, Toomey is averaging a slightly better than two-point lead very close to our trend estimate, and all of their daily releases over the last week have been within sampling error of that average.

Pennsylvania has been the most polled Senate race in the nation, with 63 surveys in our database so far (counting only two non-overlapping Muhlenberg tracking polls). As such, we are likely to see more than a few new Pennsylvania pols over the next few days that will clarify where the Toomey-Sestak race stands.

With torrent of new statewide polls still to come, all of these snapshots are subject to change. Stay tuned.

Note: Our newly-updated trend estimate model assesses the trends across all races, so whenever we add a new poll in any state, the probabilities and trend estimates for all races will change very slightly (usually no more than a tenth of a percent or two for the trend estimates).

Follow Mark Blumenthal and HuffPost Pollster on Twitter

Comments

[flashprism]

04:52 PM on 10/27/2010

West Virginia Outdoorsmen don't be fooled by Manchin. His use of a rifle to persuade you he is consevative and supports our constitutional rights will not last.

Kagan, Obama's last appointee to the supreme court today voted with the minority that the drug to be used in an AZ execution could not be guranteed safe. She voted to stop the execution of this murderer. This is just the start of another terrible judicial career.

Both of Obama's appointments will prove to further destroy our beloved constitution.

NOT ONE DEMOCRAT VOTED AGAINST THESE 2 OBAMA APPOINTMENTS.

Voting for supreme court Justices is one of the most important responsibilities of a senator. The consequences to us who love the outdoors is extremely significant.
What do you think will happen if we loose one of our 4 constitutionalist during Obama's Term.

MANCHIN WILL NOT VOTE AGAINST AN OBAMA NOMINEE!!!!!!!! They Never doooo!!!!!

Keep Manchin as your as your governor Vote Raese to the Senate!!!!You must protect our heritage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A Grandfather with 5 new hunting grandsons

[gammik64]

01:30 PM on 10/28/2010

Dude, you sound CRA&Y!

[wewanthillary2012]

01:40 PM on 10/27/2010

Don't vote for any Mancin Blue Dog Anti-healthcare candidates.

Write in Hillary 2012 and we WILL get free universal healthcare

[georgecarlin1776]

07:23 AM on 10/27/2010

Alan Grayson and Russ Feingold are my two favs other than Bernie. Conservatives have targeted and demonized Alan but I have news for them.I am way to the left of Alan and there are millions of us. Many aren't interested in politics like I am but give them a reason and conservatives would end up being happy getting someone like Alan who is at least reasonable because me and the millions like me are so fed up with the right wingers in our lives that we are prepared to be very unreasonable if the aggression continues. We put up with regular Republicans and even extremist charlatans like Cheney and Bush so it would be in their interests to accept the Alan Graysons of the world and maintain some stability, common sense and basic decency in our politics.

[Gronkie]

09:36 AM on 10/27/2010

I live in Grayson's district and I am a rock solid supporter. So is my wife. He's got two strong votes here. I think he'll pull it out. Take away all of his confrontational rhetoric, and he's done an excellent job for his district. Among other things, he's doubled the amount of Federal money coming back to his district over the previous do-nothing Republican. I'm also a big fan of his health care position, which is that the current bill didn't go far enough.

Go Alan! We're behind you!

[flashprism]

04:57 PM on 10/27/2010

Gronkie
I hope my leftest congressman can steal from your district as you and the other fools who voted for grayson seem to have too much already and I want some of what you have. My wife and I deserve it as were better than you and your wife any day.

[ElkElkElk]

05:07 AM on 10/27/2010

Impressive list of clients:

"The principals of LCG have conducted research and communications consulting for the following corporations and organizations.

* Abbott Labs
* Alabama Power
* Altria
* American Council on Education
* AstraZeneca
* Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)
* Blue Cross Blue Shield New Jersey
* Columbia Tri-Star Television
* Dartmouth College
* Fannie Mae
* Healthsource
* InPhonic
* Johnson & Johnson
* Kraft Foods
* Lifespan
* Millenium Partners
* Monsanto
* National Association of Broadcasters (NAB)
* National Cable Television Association (NCTA)
* National Governors Association
* National Pharmaceutical Council
* Peabody Energy
* Pfizer
* Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association
* Philip Morris, USA
* Public Service of New Hampshire (PSNH)
* Republican National Committee (RNC)
* Romney for President
* Southern Company
* Time Warner Cable
* Telstra
* United States Chamber of Commerce
* United States Telephone Association (USTA)
* Verizon
* Warner Brothers Television

[Marcospinelli]

04:01 AM on 10/27/2010

You are not limited to voting for just Democrats and Republicans. There are other alternatives besides sitting out the election or voting for Republicans. There are other candidates running as independents, from Green to Libertarian, in just about every race.

Anyone who tells Democratic voters to be quiet, not criticize Obama and Democrats, that you must vote for Democrats because they're "the lesser of 2 ev!ls", should be shouted down, told to cram it, because they're trying to deny voters holding their elected representatives' feet to the fire, to live up to their campaign promises.

Right now, this very period, the weeks leading up to an election (voting's already begun and it may be too late) is the most important, the ONLY time really, when voters have any clout. This is it for making our deals with the candidates. Citizens have little enough of a Constituti onally-gua ranteed role within this democracy as it is. We have the right to vote, but not to have our ballots counted. The founders were nothing if not ironic. Our elections every two years is a window period, a time to re-up or opt-in/opt-out.

Vote incumbents out who have failed to achieve on their campaign pledges. For whatever reason, they're not capable of achieving what they claim to be their own and their constituents' shared objectives. Vote against them now or forever (in another 2 years) hold your peace.

[JohnHKennedy]

09:47 AM on 10/27/2010

A close Senate Race & Stolen Primary gives Angry Colorado Liberals & Progressives a chance to change internal Colorado Democratic Party power politics. It only takes a few votes in a "very" tight race to change the outcome drastically.

Perhaps your vote will be the one that changes the outcome and puts enough pressure on corrupt Democratic Party officials that they will not manipulate primaries in the future. OUR RIGHT to a fair and honest primary is too precious to lose.

The key issue for Colorado Democrats to remember is that Obama Stole the Democratic Senate Nomination for Michael Bennet. Loss of a Fair and Honest Primary Means the General Election is not Fair.

The way to tell Corrupt State Democratic Party officials that you won't tolerate it is to
WRITE-IN "ROMANOFF"
or just leave the spaces for Senator "BLANK"

Obama can veto any bill that Ken Buck passes and the GOP will not have the votes in either house or senate to override. The right to abortion is settled law.
OUR RIGHT to a fair and honest primary is too precious to lose over your fear of Republicans.

[SaraSH]

01:09 AM on 10/27/2010

As a scientist who knows a bit more than average about evolution of humans and neurobiology etc, I find the idea of small gov rather ridiculous in this day and age and for such a diverse gigantic nation. I mean, come on, you people seem to be out of your minds. Humans BY NATURE are BAD. And by that I mean they are just humans and animals, all their genes and hormones and proteins and neurons are geared to make them SURVIVE their environments. EVERYONE is for themselves. EVERYONE, first and foremost. Those who aren't are either phony or severely low in IQ and therefore unfit. Humans EVOLVED and got civilized thx to ideas of bunch of smart people who created societies and laws and governments. We would have been savages if we had no government or a small government without NO social programs of all kind. Granted some programs don't work, but what we have today certainly isn't enough, we need to prune the system and makes it more effective, not smaller. Again, STICK works more than CARROTS in all animals and humans are no exceptions to this fact of nature.

[Rozanna]

01:05 AM on 10/28/2010

"without NO social programs of all kind." I kind of doubt you are a scientist, but I appreciate your sentiments anyway.

[SaraSH]

09:06 PM on 10/28/2010

"I kind of doubt you are a scientist,", wow, I never judge strangers like that and without some sound reasons....Am I not too dorky looking? Why would anyone lie abt such a thing anyways?

[oldgrendel]

12:25 AM on 10/27/2010

Hope
"It is like any other agriculture: if you hoe it and harrow it and water it enough, you can make three blades of it grow where none grew before. If you've got nothing to plant, the process is slow and difficult, but if you've got a seed of some kind or other--any kind will answer--you get along a good deal faster." - Mark Twain - "Three Thousand Years Among the Microbes"

Keep on planting those seeds.

[Chernynkaya]

10:13 PM on 10/26/2010

With idols like these Repugnants, I am surprised there isn't more violence:

L*mbaugh:

“[I]n Obama’s America, the white kids now get beat up with the black kids cheering.”

Beck:

“So here you have Obama going in and spending the money on embryonic stem cell research. … Eugenics. In case you don’t know what Eugenics led us to: the Final Solution. A master race!”

Coulter:

“My only regret with Timothy McVeigh is he did not go to the New York Times Building.”

Michael Savage:

“What will it take to wake you up to the fact that you are being erased from the future of America? And why are you being erased? If you’re a person of European descent, why do they want your child to be a minority in America? And when your little girl is a minority in America --Tell me what will happen to her?”

Bachman:

“I believe t that we will see that young people will be put into mandatory service. There are provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people..."

Pat Robertson (re: 9/11):

“I really believe that the pagans, and the ab^rtionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesb!ans who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way — all of them who have tried to secularize America — I point the finger in their face and say: “You helped this happen.”

[sus2222]

09:15 PM on 10/26/2010

“I just read this...

Due to heavy turnout Republican Voters can VOTE on Nov 3rd and Nov 4th.
This includes ALL Tea Party members too.

Congratulations !”

[vegancheesenut]

09:24 PM on 10/26/2010

Hah!!!! They are special

[sandals]

07:19 PM on 10/26/2010

These candidates on the Republican side are not what we need, Some of these people running for the Senate are Wall Street guys who actually helped in creating this
Great American Recession.
They wants to ship more of out jobs overseas, and return to the same policies that we have been trying for the past 30yrs and don't work.
We need to stay focused and get out and VOTE and VOTE DEMOCRATIC!

[Bruce vain]

06:27 PM on 10/26/2010

POLLS smoll..Demw win..dems win dems win

[George Hanshaw]

05:43 PM on 10/26/2010

It's called sniping. You find some district that isn't really supposed to be competitive and then funnel a lot of money for advertising in at the last minute - too late for the other side to buy ad time and effectively counter. And in a year when even Barney Frank is having to lend himself money because suddenly EVERY dem seat is competitive, it can be quite effective.

A month ago Scott Murphy (D NY20) was up by 15 points, and nobody really thought it was worth even doing another poll. Then outside money flowed in to his opponents campaign coffers. Today his opponent - Chris Gibson - is up 9.

It's not just that the repubs are leading in so many races, it's that they have the momentum as well.

So many formerly seats formerly considered 'safe' are now in play that the dems just don't have the money to help, even if the repub hasn't already bought up all the advertising time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ny/new_york_20th_district_gibson_vs_murphy-1297.html

[NoiseOfKnowing]

06:36 PM on 10/26/2010

It's called buying the government. The middle-class is doomed. How long before American's start trying to sneak over the boarder to get to Canada or even Mexico?

[DUSAA-1775]

07:59 PM on 10/26/2010

and yet when obama was flush with (illegal ) donations... you didn't whine that he bought the election.

[Cbrown90]

05:08 PM on 10/26/2010

Here's more good news the HP won't tell you!

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/Hi_assets/TopHitPageNews.html

[SimJack]

05:15 PM on 10/26/2010

LOL, online polls. Good god you people believe anything.

[Untitled]

04:27 PM on 10/26/2010

Republicans nominating an anti-gay politician? Yeah, whatever.

But Manchin is against gay marriage. And the fact that the Democrats are okay with that is a little appalling, in my view. His stances against abortion and gun control aren't a big deal, because there are many different schools of thought on abortion and guns that should be respected even if we don't agree with them. But I find it very hard to sympathize with people who are actively opposed to basic civil rights.

[ATLiberal]

05:44 PM on 10/26/2010

It's West VA for chrissake. Context is everything.

[Ramirez]

07:02 PM on 10/26/2010

Manchin would be a Republican in any other state. He is even opposing ObamaCare now.

[Chernynkaya]

04:25 PM on 10/26/2010

I was just over at 538, and Nate Silver has the Pennsylvania race at a statistical tie, if you consider the aggregate polls' margin of error at +/- 4%. Yet he gives Toomey a 84% chance of winning. These races are all like that-- tied, but with widely different percentages of winning.

I know he uses complex formulae, but his makes no sense to me.