DNC Memo: "The Republican 'Surge'/'Wave' Has Not Materialized"

WASHINGTON -- In a memo being sent to "interested parties" on Wednesday, the Democratic National Committee argues, again, that the early voting data so far in the 2010 elections debunks the notion that they face an enthusiasm gap.

The committee put out a detailed communiqué that (naturally) sounds a very optimistic note but advances the early vote argument in a bit more specific and detailed fashion than it has in the past. When looking at the early voting rates of traditionally passive voters -- in addition to the aggregate totals -- Democrats are holding their own against or even besting Republicans.

"We are winning. In key states, such as NV, IA, CA, WI, WA, IL and WV, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early vote. In other states, such as CO, Democrats tend to cast votes later than Republicans (as they did in 2008), and we are confident that margin will close," the memo reads.

"The Republican 'surge'/'wave' has not materialized in early vote, and it's not going to. When we look at early vote results by distinct vote history levels (mid-term voters / presidential-year only voters), Democratic early voting is comparable, and often higher, than Republican voting."

The data is based, in part, upon numbers the DNC collected from individual races. So the points should be taken with a grain of salt -- viewed, perhaps skeptically, as an attempt by the committee to change the late-stage narrative and give the party hope.

But the metrics do seem more honest than other analyses of early voting trends. "A more accurate 'enthusiasm benchmark,'" the DNC is arguing, is to see whether or not those individuals who aren't expected to vote are actually voting. In other words, look at the turnout of sporadic Republicans versus that of Sporadic Democrats. In some states and by some definitions, the party is lagging (for instance, Wisconsin voters whose first dalliance in electoral politics was 2008). But in more cases than not, Democrats enjoy healthy margins.

The DNC Memo is pasted below:

DNCearlyVote

Comments

[notillegal2]

11:49 AM on 11/01/2010

Can't see the wave? Pull your head out of your arse.

[lcdc12861]

11:45 PM on 10/31/2010

I sure do hope that there is not a surge of R's because we in the US are in real trouble.

[SnakeIz]

03:43 PM on 10/28/2010

Was this put out by the DNC or the Iraqi Information Ministry?

[AngerAndDetermination]

04:44 PM on 11/01/2010

I am assuming that you are referring to the war that you Republicans lied my country into?

[daddybill]

02:20 PM on 10/28/2010

The independent voters are going to sway the election. Dems will vote for Dems, Repubs will vote for Repubs. Independents will tell the tale, and that's where Dems are suspect. Obama has lost too many independents

[LucieLee]

12:08 PM on 10/28/2010

The Huffingtonpost "Election Dashboard" above just put four more House seats in the "Toss-up" column, it was 26 for the longest time.

[CarolinaYankee]

09:51 AM on 10/28/2010

I agree, it was just a Rogue wave and the tide will be washing back out soon, probably by November 3rd. Every ruling party has lost seats, no big deal..I have total faith that the normal out number the nutty in our country. We have to believe that.

[Guest211]

09:37 AM on 10/28/2010

There are quite a few comments expressing dismay at how ms angle could possibly win. I'm not surprised at this since yesterday I asked the question "If republicans do achieve significant gains, what would be the reason." I had to get 5 or 6 comments in (excluding the imature snarky ones) before anyone mentioned the economy. Regardless of if you believe in their candidates or platform, as a "movement" the teaparty has had an impact on american politics that is, historically, quite significant.

I believe it was Sun-Tzu who said "keep your friends close and your enemies closer." It would seem more likely to defeat them if they were deeply understood. Wouldnt it be the smarter course of action to truly try and understand how / why the teaparty has had success. i understand calling them idiots is easier, but which is smarter.

[seegray]

11:34 AM on 10/28/2010

My answer, among others included in those strings, essentially answered your question by encompassing more than just the economy, in simplified fashion. People in this country want instant gratification anymore, and if things don't change immediately, they get impatient. The world doesn't operate that way. Yes, the problem is the economy, BUT (and this is important) it is not a simple fix. We've been heading down the wrong road economically for 4 decades. Four decades of error compounded by error cannot be fixed in 2 years. You - like a lot of voters - want the easy answer. Unfortunately, there isn't an easy answer and there isn't a fix that is going to please everyone. And, there is no easy answer to it that can be undertaken EFFECTIVELY overnight.

[lemonyashes]

08:42 PM on 10/28/2010

What on earth is Sharon Angle going to do to help Nevada? You vote out Reid and she is only a junior senator her state will lose federal dollars. Well if Nevada wants to be a Teaparty Guinea Pig!

[AngerAndDetermination]

04:50 PM on 11/01/2010

The Tea Hags are using the Lee Atwater/Karl Rove formula for success: It doesn't matter whether what you say is true, as long as it scares people into voting for you.
In this case, a brief overlook of the Tea Hags' rally signs proves beyond any reasonable doubt that they are vicious racists. Barrack Obama could balance the budget, find Usama bin Laden, cure cancer, and bring world peace (which Republicans absolutely do not want); and the tea baggers would still be saying and doing exactly what they are now.

[Rangergirl]

08:54 AM on 10/28/2010

Hey, I am shouting out to any NC....Charlotte area Dem....I can't find out how Billy Kennedy is doing against Crazy Virginia Foxx...anybody Know? We need to get rid of that nut from the Congressional gene pool.....Go BILLY

[Arashi]

07:22 AM on 10/28/2010

Just a thought: What if there really IS a silent majority out here and every Repug candidate in the country gets his/her butt handed to them on Tuesday?

Thank you for your attention. I'll go sit down now and take my meds.

[lemonyashes]

08:43 PM on 10/28/2010

I have a feeling. How many Rasmussen polls include Latino voters? Lol

[seegray]

10:09 PM on 10/28/2010

And we know the Ras polls don't include the cell phones. Fingers crossed everyone....maybe there's some hope yet.

[dawgspiel]

06:26 AM on 10/28/2010

There are times when I sit down to watch the news/political shows and say, "Has everyone lost their marbles? Don't they see this person is nuts?" Then, I find out I'm not the only one thinking that way. Most people aren't as certifiable as the Sharron Angles of the world.

Whatever someone might think of Obama, look at the crowd running from the right. Many are truly loopy. There's no other way to describe them.

What the Angles and Millers and O'Donnells have accomplished is to energize an otherwise complacent/disappointed Democrat base.

The Democrats will probably lose seats as is the norm in the first midterm after a new president is elected. The question is: How many?

The answer, IMO, is not as many as most pundits predict. What the Angles have done is to set off alarm bells in living rooms across the nation. I'll be very surprised if turnout is light for this midterm and I think far more Democrats will show up than expected. If there was ever an enthusiasm gap it no longer exists.

Will a Rand Paul or Angle or Buck get elected? Sure. But not the majority of them, and nowhere near as many in the house as some think, certainly not in the senate. Some of these people are so far beyond the fringe that you can't see the fringe from where they are.

[Arashi]

07:29 AM on 10/28/2010

Yeah, but you can see Russia.

Fact is these wackos aren't the one's we should fear -- it's the 'informed' conservative voter.

[doubtingdavid]

10:54 AM on 10/28/2010

Pretty good comments. Ill be satisfied if enough reps get elected to at least slow down the train wreck of the last four years the dems have ruled.

[dawgspiel]

12:08 PM on 10/28/2010

I strongly disagree with you. Nothing could could ever come close to the train wreck Newt, Dick Armey, Dubya and Cheney produced.

[JessWonderin]

12:34 PM on 10/28/2010

Obam jumped on that speeding train to try and stop it . . the Teapublicans think jumping up and down pulling the horn cord does something . . . .

[Uggg]

06:15 AM on 10/28/2010

Dear DNC the only Poll that Matters is on Tuesday all other polls are irrelevant

[Guest211]

05:55 AM on 10/28/2010

interesting CBS article this AM

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20020976-503544.html

[BUSTERtheCAT]

02:33 AM on 10/28/2010

new super double secret poll has the GOBP winning ALL the house SEATS, all the Available SENATE seats,.....the poll shows they are going to WIN every thing, now give me $2500 and a round trip car service to the STUDIOS.

ohh i forgot ....DEMS going to EXTEND majorities in BOTH houses and be a 2012 nail away from FINISHING of the REPUBLICAN party forever.

DEMS TURNOUT, TURNOUT TURNOUT !!!!!!
LEts light them up again for the 3rd election cycle in a row
they deserve a stomping..........again

[DUSAA-1775]

04:48 AM on 10/28/2010

I have placed you on the list of those who will require mental health attention after the elections

[mrtutto]

02:29 AM on 10/28/2010

If you're thinking of not voting in this election, I have two words for you. PRESIDENT PALIN

[BUSTERtheCAT]

02:30 AM on 10/28/2010

all day everyday man

[doubtingdavid]

10:51 AM on 10/28/2010

Vote early and often!

[JessWonderin]

12:35 PM on 10/28/2010

AAAAGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

sound of footsteps RUNNING to polling station . . . .

[Raster]

02:26 AM on 10/28/2010

A "surge wave" will sweep all before it (if it turns from hype to reality)!