Senate Elections 2012: The State Of The Senate

WASHINGTON -- Only a week after the 2010 midterms, it's difficult to tell how the 2012 senate elections will take shape. Any changes in the economy are likely to have a huge impact on the electoral environment and presidential year turnout is likely to make for a very different electorate than the one that showed up in 2010.

Perhaps the most important thing to remember is that 2006, the year when these senators were elected or last reelected, was a high point for Democrats. In the coming election cycle, Republicans will defend 10 seats, most in states that are likely to remain firmly in the Republican column. Democrats, on the other hand, will defend 22 seats plus attempt to replace Joe Lieberman with a more reliable Democratic vote. Many Democratic senators were swept in in 2006's pro-Democratic wave, some of them in close races. These senators could face tough battles for reelection in 2012. Without knowing more about what the electoral environment will look like in 2012, it seems likely that Republicans will have more chances to pick up seats than Democrats.

On the Republican side, continuing threats from the Tea Party could force otherwise safe Republicans to fight primary battles.

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Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.)

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Kyl, who was first elected in 1994, was reelected with an 11 percentage point lead over his Democratic opponent in 2006, a strong year for Democrats. A recent poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for DailyKos.com, Kyl had a solid 47% approval rating, with 39% saying they disapproved. In the same poll, Kyl held a 53% to 39% lead in a hypothetical matchup against Democratic congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Arizonans reelected Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer in 2010, both by strong margins, and supported McCain over Obama 55% to 45% in the 2008 presidential election. Kyl appears to be in a strong position to win reelection in 2012.

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Kyl, who was first elected in 1994, was reelected with an 11 percentage point lead over his Democratic opponent in 2006, a strong year for Democrats. A recent poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for DailyKos.com, Kyl had a solid 47% approval rating, with 39% saying they disapproved. In the same poll, Kyl held a 53% to 39% lead in a hypothetical matchup against Democratic congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Arizonans reelected Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer in 2010, both by strong margins, and supported McCain over Obama 55% to 45% in the 2008 presidential election. Kyl appears to be in a strong position to win reelection in 2012.

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Comments

[edlindaspy]

11:24 AM on 11/20/2010

There were 11 democrats that voted to put people on the street or live in their cars by not voting to renew unemployment for 3 months,,those democrats are:

1. Allen Boyd (FL 2nd)
2. Bobby Bright (Alabama 2nd)
3. Lincoln Davis (TN 5th)
4. Baron Hill (Indiana 9th)
5. Walt Minnick (Idaho 1st)
6. Glen Nye (VA 2nd)
7. Gene Taylor (Mississippi 4th)
8. Marion Berry (Arkansas 1st) Retiring
Good riddance to the 8 of you,,,


The remaining three of them were re-elected.

They are:

1. Jim Cooper (TN 5th)
2. Collin Peterson (Minnesota 7th)
3. Heath Shuler (NC 11th)

And These should also join the ranks of the ousted in 2012.

You cannot hide from your voting record and we are watching you..

There's an old saying about given a choice between Republicans and Democrats who act like Republicans, the true Republican will usually win.

[Demonjoe]

05:38 PM on 11/17/2010

I predict a 7-9 seat gain in the Senate for 2012. I think the Democrats will lose in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennslyvania, and Virginia. I do think however that the Democrats have a shot at Maine, if Olympia Snowe were to lose her primary to a Tea Party candidate, and maybe Scott Brown. They also have a shot at Joe Lieberman but that would only be half a gain since he caucuses with the Democrats.

[edlindaspy]

11:29 AM on 11/20/2010

He might caucus with them but he is nothing but a turn coat,,,Lieberman is going to lose watch and see,,,,he will be out buying a bigger pair of flip floppers. He might as well run on the Rethugs party ticket since he has used the D and I for other elections,,,

[QUILLER3]

06:39 PM on 11/16/2010

I don't see a close race for Cantwell. The "close" race for Murray has now stretched to a 6 point victory. Washington Republicans don't have a deep bench and McKenna is already planning a run for governor. Basing 2012 predictions on 2010 voting makes as much sense as predicting 2010 from 2008--no sense at all. Rossi has had his three strikes. Reichert is likely to announce his retirement near the end of his term. Kathy McMorris Rogers may consider an attempt but I don't think she'll give up her safe seat. Even in 2010 Washington turned out to be a blue state with few Republican pick-ups. Republicans should expect 2012 to be a much more difficult year in the Pacific Northwest.

[BoyInBOYCOTT]

03:26 AM on 11/15/2010

What difference would a Republican beating Ben Nelson cause Democrats? Snowe caused her own downfall when she voted against the repeal of DADT and the Dream Act. WHATEVER it costs,,,LGBTs will defeat her. THAT vote ended her career.

[Clevelandinwi]

08:41 PM on 11/14/2010

Since 1994 the gop has been on a mission to destroy what most of us see as the United States of America. Their mission was uninterrupted for twelve years. Then, somehow, America grew a brain. But when the Democrats took over, the gop simply blocked everything and Bush did nothing his final two years. Then, to the chagrin of the white, upper-class gop, a BLACK man won the Presidential election. With all the money at hand and the Supreme Court firmly in their pocket, they set out to destroy him - not to help build the country of fix problems - but just to destroy that black man. The gop in Washington DC was an easy buy, cheap even, They needed a few Democrats and they cost a little more but they got enough and the rest is history. Our history. Am I wrong? Well?

[George Hanshaw]

08:20 PM on 11/14/2010

Of course the dems can lose the Senate. They have a LOT more seats to defend in 2012 than the repubs, and a lot of those seats are quite competitive. I could EASILY see where the dems running a candidate against Lieberman could split the dem vote and hand the seat to a repub.

[Clevelandinwi]

08:43 PM on 11/14/2010

And it's now a proven fact that you can't beat MONEY.

[h23154]

04:54 PM on 11/27/2010

Exactly. Just ask Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. You can also ask Patrick Murphy. Just curious, but could you define "proven" and "fact" as you are using them?

[edlindaspy]

11:33 AM on 11/20/2010

He won't run democrat,,,Ned LaMont beat him out on the dem ticket so he ran independent,,this time he will probably run on a rethug ticket cause that is what he is,,,I can't stand Lieberman

[fatback65]

07:05 PM on 11/14/2010

Isn't a little early for this. Give another week at least, please.

[Kenyatta J Yamel]

06:30 PM on 11/14/2010

Can we ever get relief from these GD polls? WTF?!

[TruthIsAll]

05:38 PM on 11/14/2010

http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateMidtermsPostElection.htm

The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

It is standard operating procedure on the part of exit pollsters to force the final to match the recorded vote. The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters.

The returning voter split understated Obama's recorded 52.9-45.6 margin by 7.3%. If the mix is adjusted to the actual 2008 vote shares, the Democratic 2010 share is within 1% of the GOP, matching the pre-election RV polls. But the recorded 2008 Democratic share understated the True Vote share by 4-5%. Therefore, the adjusted 53/45 mix includes the discount for unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

[mabinog]

02:49 PM on 11/14/2010

if the Dems dont get out and vote and if the centrists and independents don't wake up to the bagger bull they can.

[hotbarb2614]

02:18 PM on 11/14/2010

Watch for lieberman to become a Republican very soon.

[jbvbwysu]

02:45 PM on 11/14/2010

Why? He'd just get teabagged out of the primaries.

[fatback65]

07:06 PM on 11/14/2010

True.

[Leper]

05:42 PM on 11/14/2010

If he became a Republican, he would not be re-elected. Period.

[zest]

02:02 PM on 11/14/2010

No party deverves to be at the wheel when the ship of state finally goes down than the GOP.

[R U Sirius]

02:02 PM on 11/14/2010

I'm really beginning to think it doesn't matter who "rules" the Senate. They might as well be on another planet. They sure as h#ll don't have a clue about the world I live in.

[den1953]

12:57 PM on 11/14/2010

The shake up in Washington will not end in 2010 as a madder of fact it is just starting, this could be realized that it may just be a good thing and make Senators and House members think before they vote on a bill, and not follow party lock step!

[Michael T Campbell]

12:36 PM on 11/14/2010

For Pete's Sake the elections were just here and there is already speculation about the Senate in two years. This is ridiculous. Give it up already. How about you focus on what is happening now and visit the 2012 election when it is time to.

[den1953]

01:00 PM on 11/14/2010

The media wants to hype up hopes before the reality of non governing takes place and American patience wear thin i figure by March if no jobs are not produced and the economy just flat lines there will be all kind of political stories circulating throw the media!