US-2012 Primary: 21% Palin, 19% Gingrich, 18% Romney, 16% Huckabee (PPP 11/19-21)

Public Policy Polling (D)
11/19-21/10; 400 "typical" Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
21% Palin
19% Gingrich
18% Romney
16% Huckabee
5% Paul
5% Pawlenty
3% Thune
2% Daniels

Would you like to see Michael Steele continue as chairman of the Republican Party or would you rather he was replaced?
23% Continue, 47% Be Replaced

Comments

[StatsNpolls1]

03:56 PM on 12/01/2010

Without commenting on fundamentals, one thing I find funny is the argument that because Palin is polling around 10 points behind BOBO, and worse than most other Repub likelies, it will be a BOBO rout.

Recent presidential election history is full of wild, double digits swings. Bush/Gore for example, featured two swings in just the last three months before election. Bush led by 10+ in Aug, Gore led by 10+ in Sep, then Bush led again, then Gore came back last minute.

A ten point lead two today is utterly M-E-A-N-I-N-G-L-E-S-S.

[Xenobion]

04:13 PM on 12/01/2010

No one is actually paying attention to this poll, they are paying attention to the candidate that arguably in my opinion do much worse than fall 10% behind Obama.

[stillow1]

04:37 PM on 12/01/2010

These are all just teaser polls....food for mice like us to get us by until it gets closer to primary season and the general. We are over a year away still from the primaries....so these are all just teasers to satisfy political junkies until it gets closer to crunch time.

So ya they are totally meaningless, but keep the conversation moving.

[Rocketsfan]

02:11 PM on 12/01/2010

LOL the Democrats are forgetting that in '08 the Republicans wanted Obama as the nominee. Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

And I'm not much of a Palin supporter.

[Xenobion]

02:23 PM on 12/01/2010

Palin can fundraise but I seriously doubt her political machine capabilities. She simply cannot be exposed to a camera for too long or she'll develop foot-in-mouth disease. Noone now calls Palin on her stunts now other than reporting them. I doubt her ability to be properly interviewed by media other than a stated conservative source and unless she opens herself up, she'll get no where.

[stillow1]

03:44 PM on 12/01/2010

True...history is full of times where one party wanted the other guy, got him and that guy beat them...the most famous is recent times was Reagan...where Carter and Dems were foaming at the mouth to go up against Reagan who they thought they would walk circles around. Bush Sr. used to joke about the Dems nominating Clinton...some obscure governor from AR they thought never could beat an incumbent president. And yes in 08 the GOP wanted Obama much more than they wanted Clinton....things don't always work out how you think.

Though it pains me, I have to agree with X...I just don't see it. While she is a great fundraiser and could compete with money and she gives a great prepared speech, I just don't know if she is electable. I did not vote for Bush in 04 or mccain in 08, so the question is could palin bring conservatives like me back to supporting the GOP candidate after we left in 04 and 08? answer: I don't know if I could pull the lever or not for Palin.

[AaronTX]

05:47 PM on 12/01/2010

I don't know what history you read, but from what I've read, Carter's advisors knew they had an uphill battle against anyone. Pat Caddell's memoirs said that the strategy was to try their best to demonize Reagan and make Carter look sane by comparison.

[AaronTX]

11:58 PM on 12/01/2010

Stillow, you have no idea what you're talking about. The 1980 republican nomination was wrapped up basically before 1980 even started. The only small scare Reagan got was when George H.W. Bush won the IA caucus and threatened in NH shortly. The Carter camp knew Reagan would be the nominee. Maybe they thought Bush might have been somewhat more electable than Reagan, but they were worried about Reagan.

I was thinking of Hamilton Jordan's memoirs earlier, not Caddell. I can either believe what Jordan, one of Carter's top advisors, recounted about the campaign, or I can believe your ramblings based on nothing. Oh yeah I forgot, you don't read books because they don't make anyone smarter.

[Lat1]

01:57 PM on 12/01/2010

Landslide coming for Obama in 2012.

[noygdb]

09:01 PM on 11/30/2010

OMG!
stop with the utterly useless polls

[axt113]

07:49 PM on 11/30/2010

The Palin media blanket is working

[stillow1]

05:01 PM on 11/30/2010

They need to mold these people into one candidate. Palin's personality, romney's looks, Huck's sense of humor and gingrich's intelect.

Anyone on this list would be competitive in the general with Obama except Palin. Her image has already been molded and she's been pretty much destoryed by the media....she won't be able to overcome that.

anyone else would be competitive.

[Dave WI]

06:48 PM on 11/30/2010

You forgot the conservatism.

[Xenobion]

06:55 PM on 11/30/2010

I'm glad you're with me on the Voltron Republican. Go go Power ConservaRangers!

[axt113]

07:51 PM on 11/30/2010

Captain racism, he's the GOP hero, going to take civil rights to zero

[Xenobion]

04:06 PM on 11/30/2010

Run, baby, run!

[BadH]

09:52 AM on 12/02/2010

100. She's certainly not Carter's Regan.

[Dave WI]

01:53 PM on 11/30/2010

Thinking more and more that I'll have to vote for Gary Johnson in the primaries, then grit my teeth and vote for whatever loser gets the nomination in the general.

[AaronTX]

01:16 PM on 11/30/2010

Yes!! Palin winning!

Will be interesting to see if Thune decides to jump in.

[Dave WI]

02:30 PM on 11/30/2010

Interesting to see whether he gets 3% or gets all the way up to 5%?

The man is a non factor. Totally outgunned on the money front, and way too establishment on the Tea Party front.

[axt113]

08:04 PM on 11/30/2010

Its beautiful, in one year Palin could be the GOP nominee