Obama Bets On The New South

WASHINGTON -- By choosing Charlotte over St. Louis as the site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention, President Barack Obama and his political advisers are making a bet that the New South is more amenable to their "win the future" reelection message than the Old Midwest -- an ironic but probably shrewd electoral-college map for what will ostensibly be a Chicago-based campaign.

The thinking is simple enough if you look at maps and demographics. In 2008, Obama won Virginia and North Carolina by combining sky-high black turnout with the votes of middle-class and educated whites who are part of New South higher education, medical research, banking, finance, insurance, tourism and retirement communities.

One of the biggest employers in Charlotte is TARP-rescued Bank of America.

The Obama team dropped a hint not long ago. When the president wanted to preview his "Sputnik Moment" speech last December, he did so in North Carolina, praising the region's track record at Research Triangle Park and technical-training facilities. He stressed solar and biomedical research -- two of the industries he also mentioned in his State of the Union.

In strict geographical terms, the president and his team are also laying claim to Coastal America -- and in essence leaving much of Heartland America behind. In a world of global trade and technology and knowledge-based industry, it is primarily -- and understandably -- the coastal states that have responded first and most successfully to the challenges of the world.

The Obama-Biden ticket won every oceanside (Atlantic or Pacific) state in 2008 except South Carolina, Georgia and Alaska. (He of course lost most of the Gulf of Mexico: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.)

As for the Midwest, the president and his team are betting that the revival of the auto industry -- a sector he helped salvage -- will be vibrant in 2012 and he can win auto-dependent states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana without a special regional tribute.

But the interior Border States are trending Republican. West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri used to be competitive. They no longer really are. Missouri, in fact, was for a century perhaps the ultimate bellweather. It no longer is and will almost certainly end up in the GOP column. These are places with slower growth, less social and racial diversity. They also happen to be major coal-producing states -- and "Obama" is a dirty word in that industry for his advocacy of cap-and-trade legislation.

These states are rural -- places in which, as the president famously said, people cling to their guns and their religion. The president is leaving that territory to the GOP, which is probably wise.

Comments

[JDZSB]

11:41 AM on 02/02/2011

Basically, we all know that most states that have large cities like LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, Philadelphia, etc. vote for liberals/Democrats who push for more government and social programs and are successful because these heavily populated big cities have more voting leverage then the suburban and less populated parts of most of these states. Unfortunately, Most of the political polarization in this country, I believe, comes from the basic cultural differences between big cities and the more suburban or rural parts of America. The inner city population seems to support more government and social programs while the rest of the country prefers less government involvement and control of their lives. Most of the immigration issues at their core seem to be prevalent in the urban areas where the immigrant populations are the largest, and these areas are liberal and mostly vote for politicians that support government subsidies and social pograms. So, if the progressives can make inroads in the suburban and rural areas of the country, it will definitely improve their election potentials, if taken to the extreme, would give them total control of our governments and a good chance at transforming this country into a socialist state.

[bleek]

07:43 AM on 02/02/2011

Given the first two + years in office for this .. person .. I would have to posit that a more appropriate venue for his little sellout event would be in a cave somewhere.

[RoofinReality]

11:28 AM on 02/02/2011

Your opinion.
Seeing how you've posited NO rationalization (based in fact or even partisan beliefs), we'll just discard it like it was rubbish.

[RoofinReality]

11:29 AM on 02/02/2011

btw, isn't your handle the same name of a character in a Spike Lee movie?

[SLM2003]

06:48 AM on 02/02/2011

The constant Southern bashing is so refreshing on here. I will say this as a cautionary tale. There are MANY Progressive Liberal Southerns down here, who vote Democrat. Our party has LEFT US! The constant bashing by our own party is a big turn off to many people.

The South has many fine school people from other parts or the country seem to attend every year, We are not all uneducated, hillbilly rednecks, and it is a childish view point for any of you to take.

The Democrats have a LARGE base of unhappy voters down here that have given up. Maybe you should all reach out to us instead of bashing us as a collective group.

[RoofinReality]

11:32 AM on 02/02/2011

As much as I didn't like Reagan's positions, he did leave Repubs with a strong msg of NOT turning on one another.
If liberals, progressives and moderates don't stop acting like petulant children, cons and repubs become more tealibanistic in their governance. Then, we all lose.

[Rescisco]

10:46 PM on 02/01/2011

With the passage of time, I care less and less about what makes people in any part of the country "tick." The fact is, I'm not sure any of us is at all smart, interesting, or worth the effort. I don't mean that to sound quite as bad as it probably does, and I love you all, but we are pretty lame when you get right down to it. The more the world changes, the more we stay the same.

[Rightlygay]

09:31 PM on 02/01/2011

People were trying to make history before....its over....youth will not come out for him....you lost the indies.....he's toast!

[SageFire]

01:37 AM on 02/02/2011

Oh yes they will. I have kids in this age group and they are very motivated.

[E-Nation]

07:55 AM on 02/02/2011

It may have been a blessing in disguise for the GOP to take the House. When they are still no jobs, they will take the heat. Youth are not into this old white male principle. Only their children follow in their footsteps.

[John Merck]

09:11 PM on 02/01/2011

He can try and build a party base in the south, but i just don't see it happening. Obama has the east coast and the west coast but has lost a lot of ground in the south, the midwest and the southwestern united states.

[udontknow]

09:21 PM on 02/01/2011

North Carolina and Virginia is all he needs to worry about, maybe Georgia.

[Kane]

07:47 PM on 02/01/2011

"But the interior Border States are trending Republican. West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri used to be competitive."

When was West Virginia competitive?

2008 - McCain 56% Obama 43%
2004 - Bush 56% Kerry 43%
2000 - Bush 52% Gore 45%

When was Kentucky competitive?

2008 - McCain 58% Obama 41%
2004 - Bush 59% Obama 39%
2000 - Bush 56% Gore 41%

And in Missouri, Obama did better than recent Dems, losing by less than 40,000 votes. Much too close to suggest that it is wise for the president to leave that territory to the GOP.

2008 - McCain 50% Obama 49%
2004 - Bush 53% Kerry 46%
2000 - Bush 50% Gore 47%

If you're going to make these bold declarations, at least back them up with facts. One gets the impression that you were simply looking for another opportunity to drop in the clinging to guns and religion quote.

[foreverdemocrat]

03:19 AM on 02/03/2011

Um, Obama lost by less than 4,000 votes in MO. Got one too many zeros there, kiddo.

:)

[dwright]

07:43 PM on 02/01/2011

Thank you Mr President - me and my friends worked our rear-ends off for you in 2008 and were happy to do it.  I am absolutely thrilled that you are coming South this time around!!

[catzoned]

07:47 PM on 02/01/2011

Hi! A fan from afar.... www.boldprogressives.com

Sooner or later I'm going to kicked for reposting.

[Flymast]

07:31 PM on 02/01/2011

I don't know how they think this. Ebony Magazine has a historical analysis piece that is comparing the current times to the "New Confedereacy". With Tea Partiers and others talking of nullification, repealing the 14th amendment, secession, and fighting the President on every front, the Deep South now is considered the "New Confederacy" and they want to go back to old Jim Crow laws. The Texas Senate just passed a Voter ID bill that goes against everything that was fought for in the Voting Rights Act during the Civil Rights movement. They are miscalculating the Deep South.

[catzoned]

07:51 PM on 02/01/2011

Phew, can you rewrite that without it being a long run on sentence? I think you may be saying something. Make shorter sentences. Please? Then repost!

[no repub ever]

08:01 PM on 02/01/2011

It's sad your brain can't comprehend what the person is saying. Mr. Rocket scientist.

[wildcinema]

07:21 PM on 02/01/2011

and i bet he wont do any of the things he said when he ran for office by the end of his term.

[Flymast]

07:31 PM on 02/01/2011

You're right. He never does anything he says he's going to do.

[catzoned]

07:54 PM on 02/01/2011

I don't get enough space to debate the good and the ones that have big holes in them of all these things. The president did say he did, or tried, to do everything that he campaigned on during the primary.

Accomplishments, Obama Administration:

-Increased fuel efficiency in cars, SUVs and trucks, trucks (8 mpg) had been exempt
-Retrofitting buildings, tax breaks for reduced energy demand
-Health Insurance Reform
-Credit Card reforms; bring transparency to derivatives market that caused the financial crash
-Increase in minimum wage, first in 10 years
-Ban torture of captives
-End combat operations in Iraq
-Federal funding for medical research
-Student loans from government eliminating the middlemen who take their chunk of the money from loans.
-More funding for Pell grants for education
-Recovery Act
-Formation of Consumer Finance Protection Bureau
-Small Business Assistance and tax credits
-Equal Pay for Women
-Wall St. reform
-Two women appointed to Supreme court
-SCHIP expansion
-Fully fund the Veterans Administration
-Restored critical protections under the Endangered Species Act
-Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act
-Public lands bill
-$20 Billion from BP for businesses harmed by oil spill
-Small business jobs act
– Food Safety Act
-Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell
-Healthcare for 9/11 responsponders
-START Treaty with Russia
-Child Nutrition legislation

http://extremeliberal.wordpress.com/2010/07/06/you-can-not-deny-that-president-obama-has-accomplished-a-ton/

http://www.factcheck.org/2010/09/did-the-stimulus-create-jobs/

http://obamaachievements.org/list

[FiredUpRTG]

11:21 AM on 02/02/2011

wildcinema,

two websites tracking the President's promises and achievements:

politifact.com
factcheck.org

HuffPost already wrote about Diddy saying the same thing you did. The comments trash his ignorance like nobody's business.

[ShambalaMountain]

07:16 PM on 02/01/2011

The only reason Democrats ever had the South in the past is because they were the party of institutionalized racism. When LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 he conceded this voting block to the Republicans. Except for a few outliers like Chapel Hills NC, parts of Florida and Virginia (which can turn these states Blue in election years) the South will assuredly be in Republican hands. The cultural divide is too great for Southern states to find common cause with New England, Great Lakes and West Coast Progressivism. Secession is the only solution for America to grow into the better nature of herself; the South will always be the albatross around her neck.

[CarlIII]

07:38 PM on 02/01/2011

Take your regional prejudice and shove it. I live in Alabama and yes it will vote republican, So frikking what? I have lived and worked all over the country and I can tell you that "Institutional Racism" is not exclusive to the South. Red necks are everywhere. The most racism i ever saw was in Michigan. The south you are talking about has changed. Johnson made that statement nearly 50 years ago. "The Culture Divide" is not a North South thing. It's the religious right vs everybody else. There are more Baptists in Ohio than in Alabama.

[dwright]

07:44 PM on 02/01/2011

Western PA has more racist groups than any other state in the country

[ShambalaMountain]

08:56 PM on 02/01/2011

We are talking about the South that does not believe in evolution, that still flies the confederate flag, that outlaws abortion.... no, this is a different country.

[Ozarks]

07:09 PM on 02/01/2011

.04% =.0004

[Ozarks]

07:08 PM on 02/01/2011

Howard , I am disappointed in your article- you claim: "West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri used to be competitive...They also happen to be major coal-producing states" -- It just took me about 5 seconds on internet to find below: So much for your allegation that Missouri is a "major coal producing state"

Missouri produces 0.04% of the country's coal supply. Missouri has two surface mines and no underground mining-- duh

[CarlIII]

07:45 PM on 02/01/2011

Regional prejudice against the South . A lot of it is practiced here.

[BryDem]

07:03 PM on 02/01/2011

What do you say to a Southern Republican? Whatever it is, it has to be said slowly and without any big words

[blackraisin]

08:24 PM on 02/01/2011

I have a few for you. Look at the November election results.

[BryDem]

09:34 AM on 02/03/2011

Look at the November voter turnout....thats the only way Republicans have EVER gained any power. We'll see you in Nov.2012. Only 80 million voters turned out, and Republicans think it was a big victory.........hahahahahahahahaha!

[Stealthboxer]

07:00 PM on 02/01/2011

Georgia should be in play-the governors race was closer than people thought and I don't see Missouri being out of the game or Louisiana if turnout is good

[Kimpeach]

07:28 PM on 02/01/2011

I have to agree. President Carter kept Georgia blue for a while and then we went totally red after Clinton. However, its slowly turning blue again.

[dwright]

07:45 PM on 02/01/2011

NC is going to continue to trend blue as well

[dovelove]

02:26 AM on 02/02/2011

Louisiana? He can count on Orleans Parish, maybe Jefferson Parish, and that's it.