Apophis Asteroid Could Hit Earth In 2036, Scientists Say (VIDEO)

Apophis Asteroid is back in the news after a Russian report concluded it could hit Earth in 2036. They even have a date for the potential impact.

"It's likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Professor Leonid Sokolov of St. Petersburg State University concluded, though he also said the chances of that happening are extremely slim, according to UPI.

Even though the chance of impact is slim, Sokolov said it's important to plan for all possible scenarios, per Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. He added the asteroid is most likely to disintegrate into smaller parts that could collide with Earth in following years.

The Apophis Asteroid made headlines in 2009 when scientists predicted a greater than 2 percent chance of impact.

NASA scientists are cautious about the prospect.

"Technically, they're correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth]," said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office. But that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans added.

UPDATE: While the Apophis asteroid is merely a bit larger than two football fields, it's also interesting to watch the following visualization of a much larger -- but only theoretical -- impact. As Bad Astronomy reminds us, the asteroid depicted here is NOT comparable to Apophis, as the one in the video is many times larger and there is nothing this big being tracked that could reach Earth in your lifetime (or your grandkid's). That was unclear in an earlier version of this story, which included a video that was incorrectly labeled by another site. Bad Astronomy has more background on this cool (and scary) visualization.

WATCH:

By the way, be sure to check out our end of the world Photoshop competition in HuffPost Comedy.

Comments

[lastpost]

07:24 AM on 02/22/2011

Technically, they're correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth],"
Though given the reaction to the miniature one that crashed in Iran recently. We’ll still all be far too busy beating each other over the head with nailed clubs, to even notice.

[TheGripester]

06:08 PM on 02/14/2011

"...the [asteroid] in the video is many times larger..." Yeah, by a factor of 30,000,000,000 times bigger than Apophis. "While the Apophis asteroid is merely a bit larger than two football fields, it's also interesting to watch the following visualization of a much larger -- but only theoretical -- impact." That's like taking a story where a car blew up and saying "while that explosion is a bit larger than a firecracker going off, it's interesting to compare it with this footage of a nuclear explosion."

[StephenJK]

11:09 AM on 02/14/2011

Hey guys, don't worry. I just got back from the year 2036 and humans were already pretty much done. Sarah Palin was elected president in 2012 and the planet erupted in a frenzy of mass suicide.

Oh no. I just fell into the trap of using Sarah Palin as "comedic" fodder. Damn me to he//.

[William1950]

08:43 PM on 02/13/2011

wonder if we could steer it to hit a certain small town in alaska?

[FoxIslander]

05:52 PM on 02/13/2011

Oh no! an asteriod could hit the earth!...."he also said the chances of that happening are extremely slim"

...give me a break.

[mamacat]

10:52 PM on 02/12/2011

Apophis was not discovered until 2004, which makes the point that other similar objects are waiting to be discovered.

Apophis is one of 1198 potentially hazardous asteroids currently being tracked. To be potentially hazardous, it must be known to pass close enouth to the Earth to be potentially dangerous, and be of 150 meters diameter or more. Apophis has a mean diameter of about 270 meters. Its composition is unknown.

When Apophis passes in 2029, it will pass closer than the geostationary satellites that are in orbit, and will be visible with the naked eye in dark sky locations.

The odds of Apophis impacting the Earth in 2029 are higher than the odds of an individual passenger dying during any one airplane flight.

When Apophis and the Earth passed each other last decade, the asteroid's orbit was changed by Earth's gravitational pull by 68 degrees. Exactly how much it's orbit will change in 2029 can only be estimated, but it will pass close to the Earth again in 2036.

[Kamenskiy]

02:40 AM on 02/13/2011

The first point you make is actually quite interesting. Objects of roughly Apophis size strike the Earth every hundred thousand years or so, and only a fraction of them have been discovered. So, in fact, the odds of some other, yet undiscovered asteroid of Apophis size striking the Earth before 2036, are one in a few tens of thousands. Larger than the odds for Apophis itself.

Most of the latest close approaches to Earth were by asteroids which were unknown prior to the close approach. So, with the current state of the near-earth object catalogue, we're likely to not get much warning.

[smolensk-lies]

07:30 AM on 02/22/2011

objects 600m or so strike the earth AT LEAST once every few thousand years.
the Holocene Impact Working Group has pretty much proved it
burckle crater http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burckle_Crater
gulf of carpentaria , kanmare and tabban craters http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2007AM/finalprogram/abstract_129526.htm

4 in montana , likely 12000YA http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=montana&ie=UTF8&ll=47.827793,-108.679848&spn=0.071453,0.150719&t=h&z=13&iwloc=addr&om=1

the large 2 mile diameter one would equate to about a 500 feet across bolide impact

[mamacat]

10:31 PM on 02/12/2011

On an aside, on Feb. 9th, 2011, object 2011 CA7 passed about 0.3 lunar distances from the earth, at about 13 feet diameter, or 4 meters.
If it had impacted, it would have at least put on a major show, and it might have caused a lot of damage.
On average, an object large enough to cause major damage impacts the Earth every 100 years. The last known such occurence was in 1908, due to the Tunguska impactor in Siberia, estimated to have been about 50 meters across.

[AC Guts]

03:41 PM on 02/12/2011

As long as Pink Floyd is playing bring on the end I say.

[Roadrun]

11:31 AM on 02/12/2011

Doesn't anyone read Douglas Adams? Don't Panic!

[santiago sherwood]

01:22 AM on 02/12/2011

why live a healthy life style if we just whacked. So Bring on the booze, tobacco, the sugar and fat. Let's die happy

[Titanshanks]

11:39 PM on 02/11/2011

Sometimes I wish there were a science section here. Then I think about what awful, mistaken, deceptive, lame, pandering, unresearched pseudoscience would comprise it, and am happy that no one on the staff cares enough about science to push the idea.

I imagine the comments would all just be about the X-Files and Jurassic Park too.

[palindrom]

03:56 PM on 02/13/2011

I've had exactly the same sequence of thoughts. If they hired a few real science journalists, I might think differently, but the odds against that seem fairly steep.

[StephenJK]

11:05 AM on 02/14/2011

They rent is too damn high!

[Lyle91]

07:08 PM on 02/11/2011

I like how Apophis is only 200 meters across and this video has a dwarf planet hitting the Earth.

Apophis will not hit the Earth, it will miss or humans will make it miss.

[Titanshanks]

11:40 PM on 02/11/2011

Weird--that's the same picture they used for that article about all the dead birds.

[maple shaft]

09:47 AM on 02/13/2011

The delusion that humans can make an asteroid 'miss' in the short order of discovering that it is imminent is pure Hollywood fantasy.

Missle guidance systems are nearly all calibrated to work in atmospheric conditions and under normal earth gravity situations (military applications). The amount of time it would take to calibrate one to hit an INCREDIBLY FAST moving target in zero G with no atmosphere would almost certainly take longer than the warning time we would have.

Further we have no realistic test scenarios to work out any kinks in the process, just specious low funded computer approximations.

Not saying that it is impossible but I wouldn't bet on those odds.

[palindrom]

03:58 PM on 02/13/2011

True, for objects that are discovered slightly before impact. But if an impactor were discovered decades in advance, that would be a very different scenario.

[onlyaquarterdelusional]

07:04 PM on 02/11/2011

Nuts. I might be dead by 2036 and I was planning on meeting jesus in my lifetime. Oh well, it's back to counting on evangelical politicians following a foriegn policy that they believe will bring about the fruitation of the rapture and the sooner the better, I am not getting any younger.

[Peter Bockenthien]

10:24 AM on 02/12/2011

Fanned

[WhereBeTheOilBeezys]

06:56 PM on 02/11/2011

Shoot Sarah and Bristol into the center of it. The size of their ego's is enough to demolish it . Hell not even an asteroid would mess with a mama grizzly and her cubs :X

[Democrab]

03:12 PM on 02/11/2011

Bruce Willis will save us. Don't worry.