Worst Housing Markets For 2011: Clear Capital Markets

Property prices could fall back to crash levels in some cities.

Despite signs of recovery, house prices are expected to fall by as much as 13 percent in some areas, thanks to a combination of high unemployment, and the large number of bank-owned homes, which often sell at much lower prices.

Clear Capital's Home Data Index -- which tracks trends in sales and property prices around the country -- predicted prices across America would drop, on average, by 3.7 percent this year, a less steep decline than last year's 4.1 percent. The decline is expected to be steady, in comparison to 2010, when prices lept by almost 10 percent between March and August, then fell over 9 percent between September and December, according to Clear Capital. The projection suggests more confidence in property this year.

But the healing will likely be uneven.

"Some housing markets are well on their way to recovery, while others are experiencing a renewed downturn reminiscent of the housing crash only two years ago," Alex Villacorta, a senior statistician at Clear Capital, said in a release. In those markets still struggling, high unemployment rates and a large number of distressed homes weighed heavily on the market.

Of the cities where real estate prices are rising, Washington D.C., is expected to see the largest increase this year, 6.5 percent, while Houston, Honolulu, Memphis and Columbus will also see modest gains ranging from 3.6 percent to 2.1 percent.

Where are the worst housing markets according to Clear Capital? Click through to see:

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#13 Las Vegas-Paradise, Nv

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According to Clear Capital's Home Data Index Market Report, the Las Vegas-Paradise area saw home prices fall 3 percent in 2010, and prices are projected to fall another 6.4 percent in 2011 (Pictured: Las Vegas, Nv)

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According to Clear Capital's Home Data Index Market Report, the Las Vegas-Paradise area saw home prices fall 3 percent in 2010, and prices are projected to fall another 6.4 percent in 2011

(Pictured: Las Vegas, Nv)

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Worst Housing Markets For 2011

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Comments

[UberdanSounds]

01:16 PM on 03/05/2011

Google the Median Salary in any city or county, then with that result you multiply by 4 which will equal your Average Home Price.

So for me in Atlanta the Median Household Income is $49,981 X 4 = $199,924 which is about what my parents paid for their house. Then, add inflation, speculation, CDO's, Mortgage Backed Securities, etc & now you have houses selling for $300,000-$500,000. Someone cannot sit here & look at these figures & say these are on par with people's incomes. The housing situation is a joke, it favors speculators, govt crooks & cronies. Why should Americans be forced to get into debt for 30yrs to a home that will no longer have that same value when it's finally paid off (IF it's ever paid off)? House of Cards folks.

[Matt Jacobs]

12:21 PM on 02/16/2011

Personally, I think I'd like to see property values continue on a slow decline; these are a bit fast, but values have to catch up to a more reasonable state than they've been in the last decade or tw.. After all, shouldn't we be encouraging homeowners, not property investors? I recall reading some economists who believe it's healthier for property values to decline, as it encourages a more stable workforce, and makes it easier for new homeowners to purchase older homes.

There's just something wrong with a house being primarily an investment, rather than a home. Maybe it's time to move away from the insanity the housing boom instilled, and stop thinking that homes have to be the single major purchase most people make that gains value with age.

[norkas]

11:33 AM on 02/16/2011

Any of you ever think of the rule of positive thinking?

Here is my suggestion if you are going to purchase a home offer anything you want no matter how foolish it sounds. Lets say the broker is stating that the final price on the home will be $500,000 and you shout out please offer $50,000.

When they carry you off to a nut house please remember my advice the thought of positive thinking.

[CoyoteMan]

10:43 PM on 02/20/2011

The brokers are aritificially inflating the prices. Something they did before that ruined the entire housing market. Brokers are liars and their lack of honesty has ruined housing in the US.

[steve bottfeld]

12:29 PM on 02/15/2011

Like Mark Twain, the reports of the death of Las Vegas real estate market is somewhat premature. The market has been bouncing along a pricing bottom for more than 18 months. Perhaps more importantly, the number of foreclosures sold has exceeded the number of foreclosures created for that same period. The number of foreclosures, while staggering, has declined steadily over the last three years. Still, it has been foreclosure sales that have forced prices down over the last three years because they have accounted for more than 50% of sales. THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE. Yes, Las Vegas will have a significant number of foreclosures in 2011. But, they will account for less than 50% of sales. Look for short-sales (pricing differential +35%) to become more common. I'm NOT saying Las Vegas is in recovery. I am saying that 2011 will be the transition to that recovery and prices won't decline as significantly as you suggest.

[ThEbor]

12:21 PM on 02/15/2011

A great time to buy a second home at the beach, if anyone can afford it. Unfortunately, not me.

[SF TKF]

10:25 AM on 02/15/2011

SF, Oakland, and Fremont are not even vaguely the same markets. SF is solid and still very pricy. Oakland is pricy and cheap, depending on the neighborhood (Rockridge and Montclair haven’t taken much of a hit, but the flatlands and West Oakland have), and Fremont is practically another planet.

[justanotherbushhater]

12:47 PM on 02/15/2011

realtor?

[skippyB]

12:14 AM on 02/16/2011

Realor or not, right on the money. The Bay Area is a very mixed bag, and very complex. Easy enough to check out on Zillow.

[Quasi-Stellar Object]

10:04 AM on 02/15/2011

According to Clear Capital’s monthly Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report, 2011 is expected to be the best year for home prices in the Washington area since the recession, with experts saying the area's market recovery will be tops in the nation.

http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=January&year=2011


A few figures on the DC area market:

1. With a projected price gain of 6.5% Washington ranks 1st out of a total 50 metro areas.

2. After a 5.3% year-over-year price gain in 2010 the DC metro area home prices will increase 6.5% year-over-year in 2011. This is compared to a drop of 3.7% nationally.

3. Roughly 15% of properties on the market in the region are bank-owned compared with more than 40% in other major markets.

4. Washington area unemployment is a little more than half the national average of 9.8%.

[Ellen Crescenta]

10:25 AM on 02/15/2011

@QSO,

Nice RE industy rah-rah hype, but who wants to live there?

The nations worst traffic and longest commute times? Horrible humid summers? Suburban sprawl that is often cited as the worst example of urban planning in the country? Total disregard for environmental controls and smart growth(see the I-66 and the DAR corridors)? Ever been to Tyson's Corner? A very transient, high stress population of people with little civility for others?

If you want quality of life this ain't the place....

[JTWallace]

10:40 AM on 02/15/2011

If anyone has urban issues with polution. Then Californis is the place to avoid. Traffic is a living hades. The stench on a damp, foggy day is awful. Housing is overpriced and the urban sprawl is so congested, anyone who can afford it is moving out. Others have already lost their McMansions and some are on welfare. Cities like Detroit have the look of abandonment. The buildings are beginning to crumble. Where are their jobs? In China. We have been duped into believing we could hold onto our bliss of escapeism(sp) and blindness to what was going on in the political mishandling of our future. Now, all the cards have begun to cave in and collapse on itself. Yet we continue to tow the party line no matter what come h.ell or highwater.

[Ellen Crescenta]

11:07 AM on 02/15/2011

@QSO, Add this to your "blue sky" factoids...

http://www.tbd.com/articles/2011/01/d-c-area-traffic-worst-in-the-nation-46531.html

And YOU may have it...

[Ellen Crescenta]

03:16 PM on 02/23/2011

@QSO, You RE industry Kool-Aid drinking lemmings just keep following the piper off the cliff.

TRY READING THIS.... www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/22/housing-collapse-underest_n_826419.html

[TruEngineHearing]

09:05 AM on 02/15/2011

...er, uh... I hope everyone notices that having San Francisco on this list is a bit dizzy. As shown, over the 2-year period from Jan 2010 to Dec 2011 home-prices will be lower by .3% - no other city on the list gets anywhere near that small an increase.

We're lucky - or, wait, maybe it's because we're so cool, or maybe because we're liberals who love to spend too much on dinners and famous wines - or maybe it's like someone once said, "when San Franciscans get to heaven, they are disappointed." Yeah, I bet it's something like that...

[firstep]

08:35 AM on 02/15/2011

Maybe we need the money changers thrown out of the temple again.

[myj66]

08:11 AM on 02/15/2011

so...I could get a good deal in Virginia Beach this year?

[breakingpoint]

07:59 AM on 02/15/2011

"Someone Showed Up To UBS' Stamford Office This Morning With A Baseball Bat And Asked To See The President"

[ken607]

07:26 AM on 02/15/2011

the housing market will never return until the prices fall to normal levels. houses are way to expensive for what they really are. a man buys a house for say 100,000, and its only worth 40,000. these banks are using fuzzy math just to raise the price. now the government wants to let mostly private companies do all the loans. that fuzzy math will only get fuzzier.

[justanotherbushhater]

04:12 AM on 02/15/2011

In San Francisco if the house prices won't get you, city real estate taxes certainly will. Every election, there are ballot propositions, measures by which the larger renting population chooses to punish homeowners, that is, fund every hare-brain or otherwise expensive civic project, by raising other people's property taxes. No skin off their noses! The worst city to own property in the U.S. because of this "taxation without [equal] representation."

[The Commish]

08:35 AM on 02/15/2011

It's the liberal capital of the country. Of course they have no problem spending other people's money.

[steph81]

10:31 AM on 02/15/2011

Half their taxes go to support people in the red states

[SF TKF]

10:25 AM on 02/15/2011

Don't like it? Don't live here.

[justanotherbushhater]

11:57 AM on 02/15/2011

Renter?