AFL-CIO Polls Show Wisconsin Supports Protestors, Opposes Walker

WASHINGTON - New polling conducted for the AFL-CIO and shared with The Huffington Post shows Wisconsin voters siding with the state workers, unions and protestors by large majorities and expressing net disapproval of Republican Governor Scott Walker

The Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted two surveys among likely voters in Wisconsin this past week, one fielded between Wednesday and Sunday last week (604 live interviews, margin of error +/- 4%) and the second fielded Saturday and Sunday (402 live interviews, margin of error +/- 5%).

Both surveys began with questions about Walker's performance as governor and more general popularity ratings of Walker, Senate Democrats and other players on both sides of the controversy. The results of the two surveys on these questions were within sampling error of each other: Walker's approval rating is now net negative, with the disapproval rating reaching or slightly exceeding 50%. Meanwhile, the favorable ratings of "Democrats in the State Legislature" are slightly better and net positive (47% favorable, 38% unfavorable on the Saturday-Sunday sample).

The second survey proceeded next to questions focused more directly on the ongoing controversy. Respondents heard a list of people and groups involved in the controversy and were asked, for each one, if they agreed "with the positions they are taking in the current situation in the state capitol." The results presented in the following chart prepared by the pollsters show large majorities agreeing with "public employees" (67%), "protestors at the state capitol" (62%) and "unions" (59%) but far fewer agreeing with "Republicans in the Legislature" (48%) or Scott Walker (43% agree and 53% disagree).

The first survey also included a "message testing" question that asked respondents to react to the following description of Walker's proposal:

As you may know, Governor Scott Walker recently announced a plan to limit most public employees' ability to negotiate their wages and benefits. The plan cuts pension and health care benefits for current public workers, and restricts new wage increases unless approved by a voter referendum. Contracts would be limited to one year, with wages frozen until a new contract is settled. In addition, Walker's plan also changes rules to require collective bargaining units to take annual votes to maintain certification as a union, stops employers from collecting union dues, and allows members of collective bargaining units to avoid paying dues. Law enforcement, fire employees and state troopers and inspectors would be exempt from the changes.

After hearing that description, 42% said they favor Walker's plan and 52% oppose it (24% say the favor it strongly, and 41% say they oppose it strongly).

Again, both surveys were sponsored by the AFL-CIO. As with any survey with partisan sponsorship, skepticism is in order. Data may have been released selectively, with less favorable results withheld. In the context of pre-election polling, partisan polls tend to skew in favor their sponsor by an average 3 percentage points and against their opponent by roughly the same amount.

In this case, however, the ratings of Walker and his budget and collective bargaining proposal are roughly comparable to an automated survey conducted in Wisconsin last week by WeAskAmerica, a for-profit subsidiary of Illinois Manufacturer's Association (an organization that has endorsed Republican candidates for state office in Illinois).

Documents shared with The Huffington Post also show that the AFL-CIO surveys report a party identification breakdown of 47-46% Democrat or lean Democrat, 40% Republican or lean Republican. This week, Gallup reported party identification results for all 50 states based on all interviews conducted during 2010 and found a leaned party ID breakdown for adults in Wisconsin of 43.1% Democrat, 40.5% Republican.

Update: Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research has now posted their analysis and filled-in questionnaires for both surveys.

Comments

[worldsinmind]

08:13 PM on 03/21/2011

I find my union leaders a little curious. I wonder where we would be if all our dues had gone into adding to our pensions and union medial benefits-- instead of millions going to support questionable candidates. I found this little blurb. Among other pursuits, unions such as the AFL-CIO and National Education Association (NEA) spent 60% or more of their discretionary dollars on partisan political activities in 2004 - 2005, compared to 40% or less on actual work-related representation activities.

[Randy DeVinney]

10:29 PM on 02/26/2011

AFL-CIO? Now there's an objective polling organization. What a joke!

[VBH1622]

05:52 PM on 02/23/2011

Wonder where all these supporters of the middle class were on election day?

[SageFire]

08:13 PM on 02/23/2011

Picking up their kids from daycare, dropping of meds for grandma, trying to get through traffic to buy school supplies, getting food for the dog, running home to throw in a load of wash before tap lessons, pulling invasive plants from city parks, volunteering at libraries.....Oregon has mail in voting and it works for working families.

[Anthony Anonymous]

07:46 PM on 02/24/2011

everyday you drop meds off for grandma, everyday you buy school supplies, everyday you get food for the dog, everyday you do a load of wash, everyday there is tap lessons, everyday you pull invasive plants from the parks, and everyday you volunteer at libraries????

The only day you could vote, was the day you did all of that? kind of hard to believe and I am also in a working family. If there is a will, there is a way. You couldve made time. you're just making excuses.

[Cindy Jacobs]

08:52 PM on 02/24/2011

The tea party bamboozlers didn't talk about repealing collective bargaining during the elections.

[uvymopka]

05:08 PM on 02/23/2011

The United States Army’s Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) testing in Wisconsin in 2009, found 18.9 percent of all Wisconsin high school students failed to qualify for service. This included a 46.9 percent ineligibility rate amongst African American students and a 26.9 percent rate for Hispanic students. These figures come from a December study by The Education Trust in Washington, D.C.

When it comes to the U.S. Military, almost half of Wisconsin’s African American students aren’t even fit to serve. That gives us only two explanations: either children are becoming dumber or the teacher unions are not doing their jobs.

[Tim Condry]

01:11 PM on 02/24/2011

Hey 20 watt. It's not the unions job to teach.

[fanoftruthiness]

12:48 PM on 02/23/2011

I expect Boehner will be calling soon "Scott, back off or it's our a$$es in 2012"

[Kealadi]

01:39 AM on 03/02/2011

You wish.

[kengault]

10:28 AM on 02/23/2011

Economists consistently find that unions decrease the number of jobs available in the economy.

Unions function as labor cartels. A labor cartel restricts the number of workers in a company or industry to drive up the remaining workers' wages, just as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) attempts to cut the supply of oil to raise its price.

Studies typically find that unionized companies earn profits between 10 percent and 15 percent lower than those of comparable non-union firms.

Research shows that unions directly cause firms to reduce their investments. In fact, investment drops sharply after unions organize a company.

Economists have found that unions delay economic recoveries

[Chris Long]

10:44 AM on 02/23/2011

Your facts are true and the results are the same every time, I was once a union member and the unions care little about the individual members. It was a terrible situation to work under.

[SageFire]

12:02 PM on 02/23/2011

If you are to be taken seriously here you will need to provide data via links at the least. Otherwise you are only providing opinions and you know what they say about those. Those who already agree with you will be happy to do so and if you are only interested in an echo chamber then this works just fine. If you want to contribute to actual knowledge exchange you will need to back up your assertions. Additionally, unless your last name actually is Gault (and how likely is this one asks?) you already risk being ignored by all but the "true believers" so data would be even more in order. Your call. Just sayin'

[kengault]

12:13 PM on 02/23/2011

Facts are facts Sagey.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/05/what-unions-do-how-labor-unions-affect-jobs-and-the-economy

[kengault]

12:14 PM on 02/23/2011

By the way...is your last name Fire?

[norkas]

07:02 AM on 02/23/2011

The union gave in and should if about adopting more cost for pensions , etc. They understood they needed to make concessions.

Now they are asking to keep their collective bargaining and Walker is steadfast saying no way.

This is not a smart move and that is when people become arrogant and loose their grip on reality and who placed them in office.

No voter wants to see a politician behaving like a bully

[opposingviewsareopposed]

01:52 AM on 02/23/2011

Let's see, a Labor Group does a poll of it's members and the poll shows they support other union workers.

Now that's a story.....NOT!!!

This is beyond laughable!!

[TeaIs4Drinking]

06:14 PM on 02/23/2011

I wondered how far down I'd have to scroll to see this kind of nonsense. Not very far it turns out.

[DynoMike814]

09:42 PM on 02/25/2011

You obviously thought the same thing yourself, and so did the author, since there is a disclaimer at the bottom of the article:
Again, both surveys were sponsored by the AFL-CIO.
As with any survey with partisan sponsorship, skepticism
is in order. Data may have been released selectively, with
less favorable results withheld. In the context of pre-election
polling, partisan polls tend to skew in favor their sponsor
by an average 3 percentage points and against their
opponent by roughly the same amount.

[GustavoRejivik]

01:37 AM on 02/23/2011

Detroit is closing half its schools and laying off half the teachers ... where's the outrage ??

If Wisconsin or Indiana don't get fiscally responsible, they will follow Detroit.

[Are Bee]

10:00 AM on 02/23/2011

Sorry Gus... the city (Detroit) is experiencing a loss in numbers (students). Nothing political or economical about staff layoff but there is about job losses in the automotive industry. What people do not understand is that states will give health tax breaks to transplant auto companies (new plants) but little or none to existing facilities... thus BMW, Honda, Hyundai have cost advantages from tax burdens over our high taxed traditional companies (Ford, GM, Chrysler). These companies are still making huge contributions to the American fiscal burdens... but I bet you think that they should have been left to expire. Get all the facts my friend. Where do you get these numbers (half of it's schools / half of teachers)? It amazes me how people will post statistics out of smoke... where is your reference... let me guess... some bias media source.

[TeaIs4Drinking]

06:15 PM on 02/23/2011

But you have to admit it was a nice try.

[Perry Buckley]

09:30 PM on 02/23/2011

If Wisconsin is so broke how did they past 124 million tax cut, I don't get this, just like the Feds with 700 billion dollar tax cut, it doesn"t match up with all the lost of jobs because of budget cuts. If pain is the new course of the country let it reach the rich and especialy the companies that pay little to no taxes at all.

[GustavoRejivik]

01:35 AM on 02/23/2011

"AFL-CIO Polls Show Wisconsin Supports Protestors, Opposes Walker" ........

I would expect no less ...

[kritiktwee]

12:49 AM on 02/23/2011

I think everybody nationwide should join the cause to stop the Tyrant of Wisconsin.

The state will do much better if Walker stepped down.

[jemiltd]

11:16 PM on 02/22/2011

Folks should find out what Walker's real agenda is. It's not the budget. http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/480123/governor_walker%27s_own_statement_proves_that_his_assault_on_public_employees_has_nothing_to_do_with_wisconsin%27s_budget_shortfall/

And...http://thinkprogress.org/2011/02/22/gop-governors-misplaced-priorities/

[GoldenGirl2500]

10:21 PM on 02/22/2011

Good luck, Teachers and other Wisconsin public employees.

[Perry Buckley]

10:03 PM on 02/23/2011

Good luck to all working class people, if you think this is going to stop at state workers, then you have already kissed your job goodbye. Who would throw away any tool that keeps their livelyhood intact, but that whats being asked of these workers. How many more stories of greed and curruption do we have to hear about these companies before we stand and say " No more". And by the way, why do these politicians automatically side with hurting the working class.

[TRRoughRider]

10:16 PM on 02/22/2011

Looking forward to flying to WI from VA to see this Govenor run out of office. I hear Wisconsin is a beautiful state and great people. I am not naive to know this is the neo-con agenda for the entire Country.

[IndependentBadger]

11:14 PM on 02/22/2011

Any brother or sister of liberty and justice is a brother or sister of Wisconsin. Welcome!

[moutonnoir]

12:00 AM on 02/23/2011

we went from chicago to madison yesterday. some video of our trip: http://vimeo.com/20266398

Go. They need the support. It will be hard for them to keep up the momentum.