US-2012 President: 46% Obama (D), 46% Huckabee (R) (Fairleigh Dickinson 3/21-28)

Fairleigh Dickinson University
3/21-28/11; 800 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Fairleigh Dickinson release

National

State of the Country
27% Right Direction, 59% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)

2012 President
46% Obama (D), 40% Christie (R)
54% Obama (D), 34% Palin (R)
44% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R)
46% Obama (D), 46% Huckabee (R)
52% Obama (D), 37% Gingrich (R)
48% Obama (D), 34% Pawlenty (R)

Comments

[RealityChezck]

03:24 PM on 04/05/2011

Huckabee isn't even that close. This must be a Fox News Poll.

There was so much corruption in Arkansas when he was Governor that he was involved in it's amazing that he's even a serious candidate. But I'm sure that the families of the Four Seattle Police Officers whose lives were cut short by a Huckabee parolee would think different.

[StatsNpolls1]

12:40 PM on 04/05/2011

I haven't even checked out Ryan's budget yet, but another obvious way to cut is raising retirement age. When FDR signed SSI, Americans' life expectancy was right at 60. It is now just below 80. Both numbers are men and women combined. What's wrong with raising retirement age to 70 or 72? Unless you are coal miner or a roofer or a firefighter keep on working. Most of us are paper pushers so you'd have to prove a disability in order to qualify for earlier benefits. And if you're gainfully employed, Medicare follows. You should be able to get HC insurance thru your employer, in most cases.

That, combined with means testing will probably cut SSI and Medicare spending by a third or more.

[Lat1]

02:00 PM on 04/04/2011

Stillow, Field Marshall, and Dave,

All 3 of you are quite frankly very funny with your nonsense about how the gop will tax me less, the gop is better for my wallet, etc. You guys argue about tax policy at the margins between both parties which at the end of the day does not mean squat. Neither party has a clue when it comes to tax policy and wall st knows and has known this for years. Ever since Ronald Reagan the lines have blurred dramatically on tax issues.

[Dave WI]

06:51 PM on 04/04/2011

I see you trollin'. I hatin'.

[Dave WI]

01:34 PM on 04/04/2011

Paul Ryan hates old people! Paul Ryan wants to dismember Medicare. He wants to see the elderly dying on the streets!

(Just a little preview of the media in the coming months for y'all).

[Xenobion]

02:18 PM on 04/04/2011

All hyperbole aside, what do you think of his plan? Should we cut Medicare? I'm open for constructive ideas frankly.

[StatsNpolls1]

02:29 PM on 04/04/2011

One thing that seem to make sense and is part of his proposal is means testing. I came out in as a possible supporter of this like a year ago on this board. Thing is, lots and lots more seniors are independently wealthy these days, as compared to just a couple-three decades ago. That does not mean they can afford to pay cash for all their medical needs, but it does mean they can afford to pay more towards purchase of a supplemental coverage.

Means testing SSI and Medicare seems like one reasonable way to save, making those programs true "insurance" rather than a retirement benefit.

[StatsNpolls1]

02:40 PM on 04/04/2011

BTW, a decent save on "stagflation".

Still wrong, but a decent save, nevertheless.

[Field Marshall]

10:29 AM on 04/03/2011

Called it back in Nov. The GOP taking the house made taking the WH in '12 MUCH more difficult since it actually helps this country as opposed to the Dems and Obama who are only out for themselves.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2011/04/02/thank_the_gop_for_the_good_jobs_report_98941.html

[sportsman885]

11:34 AM on 04/03/2011

You're trying to bait Democrats into a response, aren't you? You don't actually believe that garbage, do you?

[Field Marshall]

01:57 PM on 04/03/2011

I do believe that garbage as i stated something similar on these boards back in Oct and Nov. The best outcome for the GOP in Nov was for Pelosi to keep on with her whacko ways. However, now with the GOP in control of a chamber of congress, there is a roadblock in the presidents and far-left agenda. This has allowed some of the anti-business junk from continuing and has allowed business to begin investing and expanding again.

The best thing for the economy is not stimulus or tax laws, or less regulation. Its certainty and confidence. If businesses have no confidence in their business or the economy, they wont expand or hire. If they have no clarity in tax laws and regulations, they will not expand and hire. The GOP taking over the house and providing tax clarity and business regulation clarity provides that confidence they need.

[Lat1]

04:26 PM on 04/03/2011

Field Marhsall,

You are a laugh a minute with the garbage you spew. I know I often kid around on here and make stupid and sarcastic remarks, but on this one I am dead serious. Do you realize that at least 3 CEO's and many more CFO's were laughing their butts off when the financial crisis happened because they knew the government would backstop everything (I know because I was in the room when we were dealing with some of the bad paper after Lehman collapsed)? In the financial world and especially on wall st the government is a joke and it does not matter which party is in charge these pols are bought and paid for by these folks. Which is why I have said a thousand times that neither party has a coherent economic principle about them as they are told what their principles need to be.

[sportsman885]

12:23 AM on 04/04/2011

1. The economy has been showing signs of recovery for a while. Jobs are always a lagging indicator.

2. What far left agenda? Obama was in favor of extending the Bush tax cuts for all but the top 2% of tax payers. He would have returned those rates to what they were under Clinton, who is not known as a "leftist".

Infrastructure investment is far left? A tax code that lowers corporate tax rates, while eliminating loopholes is a lefties agenda?

Are you referring to the stimulus? The one that was only big enough to stop the bleeding, but not enough to make a dent into unemployment? The stimulus that was 1/3 tax cuts?

The health care bill? You mean the equivalent to what the Republicans proposed as a counter to Hillary Clinton's health care plan? That's far left? The one Mitt Romney implemented in Mass.?

And maybe businesses wouldn't be so confused over it if Republicans stopped distorting what's in the bill.

3. What anti-business junk? Corporate profits are as good as ever. The stock market is as high as its ever been and this was before the Republican take over of Congress.

4. Certainty and confidence...this is so vague it's meaningless. You think businesses get certainty and confidence when numerous economic forecasters tell you their proposed cuts would slow the economy by about 2% and cost anywhere from 250,000 - 700,000 jobs? Please.

continued...

[theocrat]

09:10 PM on 04/02/2011

How scary is the fact that 46% of Americans want Mike Huckleberry to be our leader? Canada anyone?

[Dave WI]

09:46 PM on 04/02/2011

Is that a firm offer?

Before you leave, you should know that the Conservatives have been in power in Canada since 2008, and are probably going to gain more seats in the upcoming election in May.

[Xenobion]

09:58 PM on 04/02/2011

Before you offer that advice you should realize that the Conservatives in Canada is about as conservative as Olympia Snowe. Its like a diet soda, same great fiscally responsible taste, none of that overbearing religious and social zealotry.

[Dave WI]

10:39 PM on 04/02/2011

Oh, I know about all that. I'd question the fiscally responsible part, but whatever.

The point is, Canada isn't some great liberal paradise. Looking at the election results, Liberal votes have nosedived recently.

[stillow1]

08:47 PM on 04/02/2011

For fun, here's the reasons I see that make it plausible for Obama to lose.

1. Obamacare remains unpopular and the GOP will make the argument the 2012 election is the only chance to repeal.
2. Obama has angered liberals with his going to war with Libya, not closing gitmo, etc...while thsoe libs won't vote GOP, it may cause some of them to stay at home or vote green.
3. Hispanics are proving to be a swing vote as we've seen them give 40%ish to the GOP in two of the past four election cycles and both times the GOP won. Obama has lost support amongst this demographic.
4. Inflation may kill any sustainable recovery and put severe strain on people to buy basic goods like food and clothing.
5. Deficits and debt - He's running up so much debt and running such high deficits that his spending policies, stimulus, etc ae going to be near impossible to defend. Plus interest rates will probably be raising thsi year and next.

[Dave WI]

09:47 PM on 04/02/2011

I saw in an ad yesterday that Obama had promised to cut the deficit in half at the end of his first term. I hadn't heard that one.

If true, I expect the GOP to absolutely hammer him over the head with that quote for 6 months.

[Xenobion]

09:59 PM on 04/02/2011

A campaign promise not delivered? /slaps face

[Dave WI]

10:40 PM on 04/02/2011

Right, but it's still going to be one heck of an effective ad. Particularly when interspersed with clips of Biden telling us how we're going to spend our way out of debt.

[Xenobion]

10:04 PM on 04/02/2011

1. It is not as unpopular as you think to be a wedge issue.
2. Liberals will come home to roost and still vote for Obama for fear of some weirdo candidate like Bachmann, Barbour, et. al.
3. Jan Brewer & Sharron Angle threw hispanics back into the Democratic fold. Hide yo kids, hide yo wife.
4. I hear this inflation scare from conservatives all the time, economically it doesn't make any sense since we are experiencing deflation. Our worst fear actually in the economy would be Stag-flation rather than inflation.
5. As the economy gets better the effect of ARRA, TARP, ect. becomes more apparent. They were policies set in place to tread water and eventually get us back to recovery. As unemployment continues to fall to probably about 7.5% by election time, things will be much prettier.

[Dave WI]

10:42 PM on 04/02/2011

"Jan Brewer & Sharron Angle threw hispanics back into the Democratic fold. Hide yo kids, hide yo wife."

That's simply not true. Look at exit polls from Nevada. Angle got 33% of the Hispanic vote. Not great obviously, but she was an equal opportunity candidate, in that she managed to crater support among every demographic. A competent candidate and the GOP will be humming right along in that 40% zone.

[stillow1]

12:14 AM on 04/03/2011

Adding to what Dave said, angle was bad, she way underperformed with whitees in NV, winning only 52%. However, brewer in AZ won 39% of latinos...and AZ was ground zero for Dems trying to brand the GOp racist...it clearly did not work The resutls are quite obvious, when the GOp carry 40%ish of the latino vote, they don't lose elections.

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

03:21 PM on 04/02/2011

Here are the reasons why the GOP will have a hard time beating Obama next year.

1) As the economy gets better, Obama looks better. He can make the argument that his policies didn't just stop economic hemorrhaging, but a recovery is now emerging.
2) GOP's latest assault on unions is proving to not be a winning fight for them.
3) Next year there will be a renewed fight over continuing tax cuts for the wealthy. We keep hearing about shared sacrifice, but only seeing one side giving up a lot. Obama vowed not to let these extensions go through again and the GOP will likely fight for them. TBD.
4) One of the most important reasons, minority voters. Time has a good analysis on the growth of Hispanics in southern states, especially in AZ and TX. GOP immigration stance does not bode well for them.
5) GOP has criticizes Obama's policies for fixing the economy, but they are short on solutions, especially on job creation.

[StatsNpolls1]

04:11 PM on 04/02/2011

Pretty good analysis.

1) Completely agree. Any incumbent's chances hinge on economy.

2) Gallup's latest poll (do you support the unions or GOP guvners) has unions winning 48-39 among ADULTS, but come likely voters, it'll be a tossup, based on current sentiment.

3) "We keep hearing about shared sacrifice, but only seeing one side giving up a lot."
How so? 40-45% of income earners do not pay any income tax, and basically mooch off the remainder of income earners. I do support progressive tax rates - meaning the rich paying lion's share of nation's needs, but I also have a problem with representation without taxation. It's easy for the non-contributors to vote for programs that benefit them, and someone else gets to pay for. They need to get some skin in the game.

4) Maybe, maybe not. It's clear that those who are already here legally (both voting citizens and residents) are not all that gung-ho on having more immigrants come, and often compete with them for jobs and other resources and pressure wages downward. Polling shows that.

5) In current climate, the best thing to spur job creation is to significantly reduce annual federal deficits. Although most voters may not get that.

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

12:24 AM on 04/03/2011

Good synopsis, but here's where I disagree:
3) That 40-45% you say do not pay income taxes do pay payroll taxes. No matter how hard most Americans try, they can't escape the taxman. Yes the middle class has sacrificed a lot as their taxes went to multiple bailouts, a stimulus, and massive jobs cuts. This week we found out the some corporations, like GE, paid nothing in taxes and these corporations CEO gave themselves millions in pay raises. Yes the contribution scale is unbalanced, just not the way you think.
4) Yes there are more Hispanics in southern states and many of them are not happy with these immigration laws.
5) Please explain how deficit reduction creates jobs? Analysis out this week says the proposed Repub budget cuts would cuts 700,000 through 2012. You have to spend money to create jobs.

[StatsNpolls1]

02:14 AM on 04/03/2011

Uchenna,

3) Payroll taxes are theoretically insurance for retirement, HC during retirement, disability and the like. People pay them to benefit themselves specifically and not society at large, so they're not really taxes, but rather forced contributions to peoples' retirement plan. Income and property taxes is what pays for things like national defense, roads, bridges, police, schools, courts, prisons, all sorts of safety code enforcement, etc..etc.. etc.. So the 40-45% of wage earners do not really contribute to any of those causes, but benefit from them, while other people foot the bill.

Top 1% of earners pay 40% of all income taxes, top 5% pay 60% of all income taxes, so the rest of society owes the debt of gratitude to those people. They're paying for everyone else's ride. As far as GE and other corps go, we should close the loopholes and lower corp rates some, and that will increase total tax collections from them.

4) Yeah, I am sure most Hispanics do not like those profiling laws, but on the other hand, most legal Hispanics do not want huge numbers of illegals in the country either. Didn't seem to play much in last Nov election, while all the passions were hot on the issue, so why would it play in 2012?

5) Cont..

[Dave WI]

05:21 PM on 04/02/2011

Obama already extended the tax cuts once. But this time he'll grow a spine. Right.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

09:20 AM on 04/02/2011

Two new articles on Huffpost. The repubs are in big trouble. No Ohio, No Wisconsin, and No Michigan so you can kiss the Presidency good-bye.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/01/firefighters-cops-warn-re_n_843787.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/01/dan-kapanke-recall-effort_n_843564.html

[Dave WI]

01:13 PM on 04/02/2011

Ha! You sure you like where your logic is heading here?

[StatsNpolls1]

01:36 PM on 04/02/2011

Where is it heading, Dave? I don't follow..

[Dave WI]

02:00 PM on 04/02/2011

Well, he cites a Wisconsin recall petition against a Republican as evidence that Wisconsin is utterly, hopelessly out of the Republicans grasp in 2012.

Now, going off that logic, when enough signatures are collected to trigger recall elections for a couple of Democrats, that must necessarily mean that Democrats won't be winning Wisconsin in 2012 either, right?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

04:24 PM on 04/01/2011

The GOP won't nominate a southern Republican. Most of them are way too backward in their policies, whether it is barbour or a more electable one like Huck. The 2 I had thought would not be bad leaders were Bill Frist and Kaye huchinson for a presidential bid, but when the GOP gets reasonable or logical, those people have been retiring lately.

[Field Marshall]

05:08 PM on 04/01/2011

Similarly, the Dems won't nominate a moderate but instead focus on the far-left craz1es. Most of them are too backward in their policies, whether its Kerry or a more electable one like Obama. The 2 i had thought who would not be bad leaders were Even Bayh or Brian Sweitzer, but when the Dems get reasonable or logical, those people are retiring lately or have no shot with the nut$ in control of their party.

[stillow1]

06:51 PM on 04/01/2011

FM - When have the Dems been reasonable or logical in the past 10 years or so?

[BobNJ]

04:00 PM on 04/01/2011

I can't believe this is the choice we are going to have in 2012. After 2008, where we had probably the two worst choices for president since McGovern, Humprhey and Nixon, we are going to have a similar choice again. From the b0z0 in the white house who is a complete dolt, (face it liberals, he is neither the genius you made him out to be nor the leader of change he proclaimed) to these clowns above.

UGH!!! When we get a real candidate again?

[Xenobion]

04:50 PM on 04/01/2011

You sound like a hard person to please.

[BobNJ]

04:57 PM on 04/01/2011

Not really. I thought Reagan was great, Bush I great, Clinton mostly great, Bush II okay in the first term, Carter a dud but not as bad as advertised, Ford a dud, Nixon terrible, Johnson terrible.

It seems we have started scraping the bottom of the barrel for elected officials lately. Not just president, but congress as well. I mean, Al Franken? Are you serious? Barney Frank? Give me Moynihan and Tip O"Neill any day over these clowns.

[GoTo123]

02:35 PM on 04/01/2011

The GOP is going to need better candidates than these if they're really serious about ousting Obama in 2012. Christie would be the best bet for the GOP in 2012, but he's already stated multiple times that he isn't running.

[stillow1]

02:53 PM on 04/01/2011

Welcome to the club, your membership card is on its way...

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:27 PM on 04/01/2011

It is a april fool's joke to scare liberals.

As for Romney, I 'm beginning to think he may not run in 2012. I think he doesn't want to embarass himself to have to impress the tea party. He's a smart guy and even though he would love to see Obama defeated, he has too much self respect to have to go up against Huckabee and the Birthers.

[StatsNpolls1]

01:31 PM on 04/01/2011

You think Romney is not running?! HAHAHA

He almost has it in the bag now.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:40 PM on 04/01/2011

I just think the GOP will nominate a freak who is completely anti-choice, a birther, and wants to punish Unions and continue saying America is broke and blame it on the middle class. The party has become so extreme that Romney will likely have to become one of the fanatics like Huckabee to beat him.

[StatsNpolls1]

01:49 PM on 04/01/2011

Yeah, he'll become what he needs to become, when he needs to become it.

He is a politician. Romney no less.

And he is actually way way better than he was four years ago. Learned some new tricks.

[stillow1]

02:09 PM on 04/01/2011

That horrible horrible tea Party....the nerve of some Americans to talk about te out of control spending and forfeiting of the future.....I mean can you believe some people actually think the size and growth of the debt and deficits are a danger to the country? its pure stupidity....everyone knows the best way to prosperity is wild spending and trillion dollar deficits......and how Un-American is it to think you have the right to control your own HC decisions when everyone knows g'ment is much better suited to make those decisions on your behalf.


Damn tea bagging savages!

[Xenobion]

02:46 PM on 04/01/2011

The Tea Party in my state wanted to execute Patty Murray, they're a fun and lovable bunch that all Americans should be proud to be part of. Let the killing begin!

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:43 PM on 04/01/2011

Nice try Farleigh Dickinson. I'm sure that Mike Huckabee and Boehner are not happy the Unemployment rate went down.

PPP has Huck downby 7 in Florida, and there is no way he could be tied with Obama. It is just not true.

[Field Marshall]

01:20 PM on 04/01/2011

Yes, a non-profit liberal school is clearly the biased one when PPP, a DEMOCRATIC polling firm, is correct.

[stillow1]

10:53 AM on 04/01/2011

Happy Obama fool's day.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yAyCdfOXvec

[StatsNpolls1]

12:32 PM on 04/01/2011

The response underneath is pretty good too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS9ZKgMrUyI&feature=watch_response

The definition of a true classic. No matter how much time has passes, it's still good.

[Dave WI]

01:09 PM on 04/01/2011

I think Obama 2012 ad is even better:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIA5aszzA18