Apple's Revenue Better Predicted By Bloggers Than Wall Street [CHART]

When it comes to Apple's stock, the advice of financial bloggers may be more reliable than tips from professional analysts.

On Wednesday, Apple reported a second-quarter net profit of $5.99 billion, or $6.40 per share.

CNN Money, however, tracked revenue predictions, and Apple made $24.67 billion of it in the second fiscal quarter. They found amateur bloggers were much more bullish on Apple than their professional counterparts. Of the 58 analysts surveyed, in fact, bloggers on average predicted Apple would generate 8.53 percent more revenue than Wall Street professionals.

That optimism, it turns, out was also more accurate. Predicting the tech giant would generate $25.25 billion in revenue, bloggers' estimates overshot Apple's results by $58 million on average. The average Wall Street prediction, on the other hand, was low by $1.4 billion.

The below HuffPost chart compares blogger predictions (blue) with Wall Street analysts (orange). The horizontal dotted line indicates Apple's actual reported revenue:

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Comments

[pdxist]

05:40 AM on 04/27/2011

Does blogger accuracy extend to, say, Pfizer or Alcoa? Or are we just saying that bloggers are more pro-Apple?

[zelda777]

11:25 PM on 04/26/2011

Could this be converted to music?

[joe kim]

11:08 AM on 04/26/2011

Maybe the incentives are different? Wall Street analysts want to keep the ponzi game running, bloggers want more eyeballs on their webpage. Which do you think would be more accurate?

[CPAwADD]

09:09 AM on 04/26/2011

One should not make any general statements about the success of bloggers versus 'experts' based on one earnings report.

[bynddrvn5]

08:36 PM on 04/26/2011

You beat me to this comment ;)

Completely agree!

[xilduq]

11:26 PM on 04/25/2011

bloggers don't get paid to low-ball their estimates to juice the market after a "beat"...

[xilduq]

11:27 PM on 04/25/2011

that is, the reputable bloggers don't get paid...

[Lolie Culley]

06:47 PM on 04/25/2011

Bloggers have common sense and live in a real world while Wall Street live in a fantasy world.

[Carl Caroli]

04:17 PM on 04/25/2011

No surprise. Wall street sells fantasies, not reality.

[rpr]

03:14 PM on 04/25/2011

So this is one stock out of how many?
Where are the statistics?

[yappnmutt]

02:48 PM on 04/25/2011

bad example. APPL has always underpromised and overdelivered. this is part of the game on the street. bloggers aren't beholden to it. all they have to do is find out what the consensus of the street is add a billion to the number and they will be more accurate than the pros.

[OMVCO]

02:41 PM on 04/25/2011

this is interesting, bully for the amateur investor.

[shthar]

02:40 PM on 04/25/2011

Didn't a chicken do better than people at picking stocks a few years ago?

[SeenItBefore]

04:57 PM on 04/25/2011

As did a monkey, and throwing darts. But I think the most successful amateur was a dart throwing chicken riding a chimpanzee.

[Warren Lauzon]

02:36 PM on 04/25/2011

Flawed data does not make things real.

Some of those analysts' estimates were a year old, while the blogs were much more recent.

[dimplesmile7]

12:43 PM on 04/25/2011

Bloggers are doing it without the overpriced, inflated salaries those crooks get on Wall Street.

[CPA 4 Life]

12:46 PM on 04/25/2011

You mean over thousands of earnings estimates "bloggers" do better than Wall Street analysts? Or do you fall for non random samples of size N = 1 all the time?

[dimplesmile7]

09:44 PM on 04/25/2011

Use your non-brilliance and tell us.

[craftycrow]

12:16 PM on 04/25/2011

Wow, you mean regular people have brains, too?!

[harveyr2]

12:06 PM on 04/25/2011

Wall Street analysts are tools of their sell-side business.