Adobe CEO Predicts Android Tablets Will Overtake iPad

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayyen is betting that just as Android smartphones gained greater marketshare than Apple's iPhone, Android tablets will overtake the iPad.

Though Narayen said the dispute between Adobe and Apple is over, at the All Things Digital D9 conference this week, he also said that he's betting on Android over the iPad--a stance that's not entirely surprising given that Android runs Flash, while the iPad notoriously does not.

“What you saw with smartphones hitting an inflection point with Android, you’ll see it again with tablets,” he said, according to All Things Digital.

He continued, "The excitement around Android tablets is incredible. I think you'll see before the end of the year 20 [new] tablets that will push in different directions."

He named HP and RIM as two companies to watch in the tablet space, particularly in the enterprise, while also suggesting that Facebook could potentially bring a novel, unique interface to tablets.

"In my view, the real platform here is the Internet," Narayen said, adding that Facebook has "the opportunity to look at this and say, 'what does a Facebook experience look like on tablet?'"

Watch a video of Narayen's interview here.

Quick Poll

Android tablets will overtake the iPad:

Agree

Disagree

Not sure

Share your vote on Facebook so your friends can take this poll

Comments

[Ty Summers]

09:14 PM on 06/28/2011

Androids advantages in the cell phone market let them overcome the iPhone but they do not have the same advantages in the tablet world. Availability was the only reason Android is/was better than the iPhone but this is not the case with the iPad and Android tablets.

[hagagaga]

09:25 PM on 06/06/2011

Apple's role has traditionally been to find an obscure technology, popularize it, and then get replaced by something superior that also has a better business model. Android probably will supersede them.

[topachic25]

12:47 PM on 06/05/2011

Whatever happens, at least Shantanu has a sense of humor:

http://youtu.be/MrWcBZhifjw

[Mitchman57]

08:30 AM on 06/05/2011

They all have their problems.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/computers/apple.html

[JohnTheMac]

09:09 AM on 06/05/2011

That's a weird site! I read a dozen or so problems, especially with the phones, where it seems like the people are undocumented workers, dealing in cash, and being ripped off, afraid to go to a real store like an apple store. It's a shame.
This one was pretty strange too:
"I bought Apple IPhone 3G from Govt company Telkomsel of Indonesia and it stopped working when I was sick and vomited over the phone. The authorised service provider OK Shop says that it can not repair, it can not replace even at whatever may be the cost.
It is really paining to hear that such a sophistigated IPHONE can not be repaired."

I am so glad I don't work in customer service with the general public!

[mugugaibu]

11:52 AM on 06/06/2011

That was the one that caught my attention too. I'm not sure if vomiting all over your phone counts as water damage or not. :)

[OracleOfReason]

06:57 AM on 06/05/2011

Non of you guys are developers, are you? I develop for IOS and Android. Do you have any idea how much harder it is to deploy an Android app? There are varying screen sizes, no consistent version, non existent upgrade, multiple flavors, etc. It is a nightmare compared to IOS.

90 % of IOS users are on version 4 of IOS. Less than 2% of Android users are on the latest major iteration of Android.

[Mitchman57]

08:40 AM on 06/05/2011

I'm still using XP on both of my computers.... and dong just fine. The developers can find their own way to make a living, or go home.

How come you have 0 fans? You joined in 2010.

[JohnTheMac]

09:34 AM on 06/05/2011

plus, when you're done, the Android people don't like 'wasting'money on paid apps anyway. Hey, so far all their software is free, why start paying now?
The "Developer Loss" effect is contrived by the media to give the "platform war" a final goal.
Smartphones have been with us since the mid90s or so. There was WinCE, Palm/Treo, Symbian, RIMM all chugging along, making money. People picked whatever they wanted and no one was talking about a platform war, or how "only 2.5 OSs could survive".
But now, they created a battle of Apple /Android, as though one has to obliterate the other.
The problem was, unlike Betamax, you are not going to walk into a wireless provider and see a handwritten sign saying "Sorry to our Apple users, but we can no longer support your platform because your market share is too low". Silly, right? BUT those were the kind of forces at play in the Betamax/VHS war, or the Windows/MacOS war, where your reward for choosing a mac was next to zero software and hardware choice at PC Retail stores like CompUSA. Printers, modems, etc needed special Apple proprietary ports at the time. You had to go online (a PHONE line) to find devices to work with macs.
That's all changed now. Macs have USB/Firewire, etc. Compusa is dead, Apple has retail stores and deals with BestBuy.

[rajb1037]

04:10 AM on 06/05/2011

While Apple is hardly unbeatable or an idyllic company, the idea that Android has overtaken Apple in the smartphone market is a bit misleading.

Much of the growth of "Android" has been on phones which can't even use the majority of Android's features. Those devices barely even qualify as a smartphone, and only technically run Android.

[deweydecimal]

09:24 PM on 06/05/2011

Just one of the high end Android phones, the Samsung Galaxy S, sold 10 million units last year, about a quarter of the iPhone 4's numbers. That's just one of Samsung's high end models too. And then there's every other manufacturer's high end models. And then there's the midrange (which run decently well) and lowend models (which can be spotty admittedly). So the numbers are not misleading at all. By the way, I use a BB and probably set on a Motorola Spice, it runs Android

[littlebrowngirl]

12:59 AM on 06/05/2011

Keep dreaming. Apple us so far ahead of everyone else, it is ridiculous.

[steama]

01:17 AM on 06/05/2011

Give it a rest. Apple will be beat. Everyone gets beat eventually. Everybody.

[NSbenjamins]

05:40 AM on 06/05/2011

except for iPod.

So far without subsidies Android devices are proven to be a hard sell.

[austin82]

07:42 AM on 06/05/2011

This is very true, power is always overturned eventually. But that day of eventually is far away. So until that day does comes please android community, give it a rest with the trash talk. Just as rajb1037 said about Android phones that can't even utilize all of androids features are counted in there sales. Cheap, free with contract phones is how they get there numbers up. Out of the near 150 android phones out there maybe 10 of them are remote contenders as far as functionality and build quality. If you add up the numbers of these phones there not even close.

[tmay]

12:26 AM on 06/05/2011

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayyen hasn't a clue about Apple's success, and neither do most of the people here posting. Which is okay, but doesn't give much support to Narayyen's quip, and certainly shows utter lack of his comprehension of the shift to HTML5.

Apple's success is market disruption supported by a managed ecology. Compound that with a world class retail presence, a pile of cash that greases the supply chain, and the Android OS will be hard pressed to move out of the carrier supported paradigm that discounts phones with contracts.

Only the tablet paradigm doesn't give much weight to contracts and discounts; it's a completely different game, and might be better played for the long run by newcomer HP and stalwart MS over Google's Android.

Google thrives on commoditization and the Android is no less than that, but it ultimately will end in a race to the bottom for hardware manufacturers, already showing limited profitability in comparison to Apple.

Android is Google's attempt to maintain an independent presence in the mobile space for search and advertising, nothing more, and Chrome is Google's attempt to gain a piece of the desktop beyond the Chrome OS browser.

As a parting thought, Narayyen would have been better served by advocating his company's transition to HTML5 tools, which Adobe certainly has in the works rather than publicly doubling down on Flash. Apple has already demonstrated that lack of Flash hasn't hampered iOS device adoption in large and enthusiastic numbers.

[jagrmeister721]

03:16 PM on 06/05/2011

Apple's hype machine will give way to practicality- more devices running OS, larger cumulative market share, more app developers aiming towards the larger platform....Apple's proprietary strategy leading them into the dustbin.

[JohnTheMac]

10:20 AM on 06/06/2011

really? Looking at revenue and numbers of units sold, Apple is sure taking the long way to the 'dustbin'!
Isn't the thing that usually hurts a 'proprietary product' a huge cost difference?
We're not really seeing that with iOS products, are we?
iPhones starting at $49, to $199. Right there with many Android phones.
iPads starting at $499.
What am I missing?
A proprietary Design is especially important of an advantage in things like mobile computer devices. It's great to control the entire design, rather than conform your hardware to someone else's OS. The end product is well polished.

[ResearchtheFacts]

11:04 PM on 06/04/2011

Android is a great OS, the things you can do with it is incredible. That appeal alone drives people toward it. I currently am a member of several each one has 100s of thousands of members and developers. Android OS is the gift that keeps giving. There are more flavors than 31 ice cream carries.

[JohnTheMac]

09:44 AM on 06/05/2011

Can you list 5 things Android can do that people would consider "incredible".
I might go buy one!
Come on! Sell me!

[any mouse]

09:56 PM on 06/04/2011

Bingo - The most innovative device maker in the world (Asus) is now showing their pads at Computex.

In addition to Asus, Acer and Intel, 50 other pads were on display.

Apple is in for a drubbing.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/03/computex-2011-tablets-_n_870981.html#s287011

[Mitchman57]

08:26 AM on 06/05/2011

.... but....but.... Steve says his is the best. There's a line at the store and everything.

[any mouse]

04:40 AM on 06/06/2011

Rumor in the Asian press is Asus actually did the iPad design for Apple.

[JohnTheMac]

06:45 AM on 06/15/2011

Acer is in bad shape! Channel stuffing tablets no one wants. lower forecast, CEO resigns, layoffs and stock down 50%!
That's innovative!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/acer-halves-tablet-forecast-on-concern-europe-demand-weak-1-.html?cmpid=yhoo

[joefargo]

05:35 PM on 06/04/2011

I have used adobe Illustrator and other products for more than 17 years. Given the recent quality plunge in his products, I understand his wishing to throw mud elsewhere. Adobe is letting the once gonner Quark regain market share. We are not from a company whose leadership is in the same class as Apple's.

[ResearchtheFacts]

11:05 PM on 06/04/2011

Visit an Android forum or two, its already happening.

[JohnTheMac]

09:53 AM on 06/05/2011

I can imagine the Android forum!
"Excuse me! We're writing all these apps, and no one is buying them!"
-Well, we need to get the iPhone people to switch to Androids. They don't mind ponying up 99 cents for something worthwhile!
ResearchTheFacts:"OH goody! I'm starting a one man campaign to get people to switch! I'm going on HuffPost for free and will criticize Apple in rambling disconnected posts! Maybe some of us can protest at Apple stores...protest SOMETHING, ANYTHING. Maybe this tax law change Apple is behind?"
- oh, the WinAmericaCampaign group? The problem is Adobe and Google are ALSO in that group..
RTF:" So what? People won't know! We just won't mention Google and Adobe. Besides, if they do , we'll boggle them with sweatshop accusations even though Droids are being built in the same factories!"

Yeah, are Android forums like that? LOL

[ResearchtheFacts]

11:14 PM on 06/04/2011

I use Illustrator, photoshop and love flash. Adobe for the creative world is a staple. Apple is on the way down. They are now protesting at Apple stores because of tax evasion. Calling Apple un-American. That's not good, the brand's human rights issue are also a problem. People need to fill good about what they are buying or backing and with the cheap builds that's not helping either. A two year old laptop is falling a part so they are issuing out tool kits. Plus the connectivity issues.

[JohnTheMac]

11:45 PM on 06/04/2011

"They are now protesting at Apple stores because of tax evasion. Calling Apple un-America­n. That's not good,"

Wow! Who knew things were so severe! Apple's awful! Only Adobe and Google can save us from an unAmerican company like Apple!
Now, let me ResearchTheFacts a minute...
It seems people are protesting a plan for changes in corporate taxes from a group called WinAmericaCampaign. Now, I wonder if Apple is alone in this group?

"The WAC is supported by a number of other technology companies, including Microsoft, Google, and Adobe. "
http://news.cnet.com/8301-27076_3-20066629-248.html

Ah, once again, ResearchTheFacts has shown that if he actually DID research the facts... ah, well. It's obvious, isn't it?
This guy piles in on any Apple article and spews hate for the company.
A litany of deceit. A string of gibberish.

[austin82]

08:26 AM on 06/05/2011

Nice Tag name and you have many sheep in your flock. But still full of crap. JohnTheMac already handled the protest portion of your rant so I'll pick up on the easy one. BUILD QUALITY!!!! You seriously want to go there. And as a third generation damn near build anything fabricator that was raised in machine shops. Your crazy. Taking apart a Apple product gives me a clear picture on why they are on top. Even down to the screws they are beautiful and precise. The body is a machined aluminum housing you could step on the damn thing and it's fine try that with any PC and you'll need a tool kit and duct tape.

[my2pesos]

05:22 PM on 06/04/2011

take that apple fanboys!

[Inplainview]

05:47 PM on 06/04/2011

Here's a clue. Android is not a "product". It is a platform/OS. Which particular Android product is going to take over the iPad and from which manufacturer? Next time get a clue okay...

[my2pesos]

10:20 PM on 06/04/2011

The open source android os will eventually take over pads, cells etc., and the ipad os will only be used only by steve jobs loving queerboys like you... okay...

[ResearchtheFacts]

12:08 AM on 06/05/2011

Like it is mentioned ALL of them.

[Jeff Harder]

04:58 PM on 06/04/2011

Tell us when he gets out of his bubble....that poor delusional fool

[Zack B]

04:38 PM on 06/04/2011

Interesting comment from a guy whose company is less than 1/20th the size of Apple. Android is an operating systems and there are many companies producing "android tablets" such as Samsung and Tobshiba. Apple's i-pad is viewed as a "pad" or an "apple i-pad" with no other qualifiers. Competitors have a branding problem--android sounds like steroid and doesn't look like an android. And if the pad doesn't work, do you suffer from "roid rage?" The vast majority of consumers do not know what an android operating system is and they do not care. But the time the "droid tablets" catch up, Apple will have moved on to the next big thing.

[originaldna]

05:06 PM on 06/04/2011

Without Adobe apple would have died in the mid 90's.
90% of the entertainment or media you consume is made with tools from Adobe.

[deweydecimal]

12:25 AM on 06/05/2011

Apple is doomed to repeat history it seems.

[jetscan]

06:18 PM on 06/05/2011

Nice try. It's the other way around.

http://www.apple.com/hotnews/thoughts-on-flash/

[Scott King 1]

04:31 PM on 06/04/2011

Oh, yeah. Watch out for RIM as the hot new tablet maker.

Right.

And I'll keep an eye on Daewoo as the hot new auto maker.

AHEM

I have the Adobe Creative Suite, and while I'm tempted to learn and use Flash, I know that inevitably it will be phased out in lieu of HTML5.

The iPad will trump the tablet market for quite a while to come. This CEO is just doing what CEO's do....being a salesman.

[ResearchtheFacts]

12:09 AM on 06/05/2011

Like Jobs with icrap.

[deweydecimal]

12:25 AM on 06/05/2011

Mmmm no, the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 is already better.

[Richard Bell]

11:19 PM on 06/05/2011

Oh yeah? Where can I buy one?