MT-2012 President: 49% Romney (R), 41% Obama (D) (PPP 6/16-19)

Public Policy Polling (D)
6/16-19/11; 819 likely voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

Montana

2012 President
48% Bachmann (R), 42% Obama (D)
46% Cain (R), 41% Obama (D)
48% Palin (R), 44% Obama (D)
45% Pawlenty (R), 41% Obama (D)
49% Romney (R), 41% Obama (D)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 54

Favorable / Unfavorable
Michele Bachmann: 34 / 40
Hermain Cain: 25 / 27
Sarah Palin: 41 / 51
Tim Pawlenty: 22 / 36
Mitt Romney: 33 / 48

Comments

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

09:26 PM on 06/28/2011

I guess I have to hope Bachmann will get the nomination, so it can be the brains vs the brainless, or maybe Bachmann is smart but certainly doesn't show it in her knowledge of history. She's just another T Party Ponzi scheme, and I'd rather see the GOP nominate their true colors of pointless policies that make no sense, than to even try to make sense like a Mitt Romney. He'll sell his soul and do anything to get the nomination.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

09:21 PM on 06/28/2011

Well Democrats won in Colorado for Senate and Governor in 2010, so I think if they can survive a rough midterm they will survive a general. Besides voter ID is confusing. It always decreases when the midterms come and a Democrat is in the white house. I think voters in COL will come out in droves in 2012 because they are not going to vote for a presidential candidate who is going to continue to lead our nation straight to hell, and be a pawn of the Koch bros and the supreme court. When Push comes to shove, the voters are sick of the rich getting all the tax breaks and the GOP keeps saying America is broke and taking it out on the Unions, and cutting back on improving the infrastructure.

[Field Marshall]

09:36 PM on 06/28/2011

If the rich get all the tax breaks, why do they pay the highest marginal AND effective income tax rates among all quintiles of the income spectrum?

FLAP, you are too funny.....

[sportsman885]

07:22 AM on 06/29/2011

They pay the most in income taxes because they make the most money. They are paying more money in taxes because they are making an incredible amount more money than they did even five years ago. And if you wanted people to pay more in income taxes, you have to pay them more in salary. Wages have stagnated over the past 30 years and have not risen with inflation. Money flows to the top and none of it trickles down.

Why do conservatives never acknowledge that other taxes other than federal income taxes do exist, and almost all of them are regressive? Those people who don't make enough money to pay income taxes still pay sales taxes, gas taxes, payroll taxes, state and local taxes, etc. Everybody has skin in the game.

But the real focus should be on capital gains taxes. Most of the very wealthy pay a tax rate of 15% because they make most of the money they make comes from capital gains.

[StatsNpolls1]

08:34 PM on 06/28/2011

Interesting. So according to PP, a job approval of 43 gets you to lose to a Bachmann by 6, and to a Cain by 5. Paling by 4?

Better store this one in the old memory banks..

[-iVote-]

06:36 PM on 06/28/2011

The news here isn't that Obama's losing Montana. The state hasn't gone blue since 1992, and even then Clinton lost it in '96. Obama didn't win it in '08, he won't win it in '12. Period. The news here is that EVERY SINGLE Republican nominee polled has underwater favorables. Even Mitt Romney, whose stronghold should be the Mormon West.

[stillow1]

06:58 PM on 06/28/2011

Not surprising. PPP polls for whatever reason always find the GOPers withunderwater favorables. I fyou go the filter and remove PPP, you will notice a huge change in the favorable ratings of people like Romney.

[sportsman885]

06:57 AM on 06/29/2011

Not exactly true. The Democrats they poll also poll lower than other polls show them to be. This is not a red/blue thing with PPP. This cuts across both lines.

[Dave WI]

07:05 PM on 06/28/2011

According to PPP, who finds EVERYBODY underwater, everywhere.

[AaronTX]

06:29 PM on 06/28/2011

Well, MT probably won't be an Obama target and I'm moving this up as a one of the 2 most likely senate seats to flip.

[stillow1]

06:44 PM on 06/28/2011

1 of the 2 most likely to flip? ND and NE are pretty much GOP locks. MT is probably 3rd on the lis tto likely flip, followed closely by MO.

[sportsman885]

06:59 AM on 06/29/2011

I'd honestly put Nevada right there with Montana as the third most likely seat to switch. Then Missouri.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:21 PM on 06/28/2011

Montana is wierd. I guess they are just another state that bites the hand that feeds politicially. Romney I'm not surprised being in the lead, but the other idiots leading Obama, in Montana is a shock.

[sillylittleme]

06:15 PM on 06/28/2011

Everyone beats Obama in Montana? I mean seriously, is there something in the drinking water? 819 voters polled. Did they call only republicans?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:43 PM on 06/28/2011

No it is probably because the passed a major health reform bill in Mt, and they are probably trying to reduce the percentage of the uninsured form 14 to 5, but again socialism is evil, and anti-american so probably they will go backwards.

[sillylittleme]

07:16 PM on 06/28/2011

Thanks, I was thinking that something couldn't be right. I mean even Palin beats him and everyone knows she's not running.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

06:05 PM on 06/28/2011

Not that anyone (that is, anyone outside of the president's most devoted ra-ra-go-oba-ma supporters) needed proof of it, but now even PPP is getting in on the act: the western states that have been so crucial to Democrats' recent success are going to be extremely difficult to win in 2012. Colorado and Montana are likely GOP, Nevada is leaning that way, and even New Mexico (we'll see PPP's poll results later this week) could be swinging back to the GOP.

The bad news: I have a bad feeling about Ohio and North Carolina. I still put odds on Obama winning North Carolina, which more or less seals the deal, and then picks up Ohio and possibly Florida. And based on what Nate Silver, the liberal Brookings Institute have written, as well as a chart of the president's and vice-president's recent campaign stops, I'd say that Ohio is looking to shore up the midwest and that's where the Democrats will target in 2012.

Not that they won't try for Colorado and Nevada, but they should be more confident about North Carolina and possibly Ohio, and that's where they'll use the most money and time. Besides, electorally, one North Carolina more or less equals a Colorado and a Nevada combined.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:24 PM on 06/28/2011

Montana has a Plus 14 percent GOP leaning registration vs Democratic and Democratic leaners, and it is a miracle they have a Democratic governor and 2 Democratic senators. NM, I predict Obama will beat all the GOP candidates by at least 4. Montana is not even in Play for Obama and actually lost the state by 9 points.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

09:03 PM on 06/28/2011

Obama only lost Montana by three points.

And keep in mind that Colorado has a 5-point active registration advantage for Republicans. If you throw in the leaners my guess is that the gap probably widens a bit.

Nevada and New Mexico, on the other hand, I think are considerably more Democrat-leaning. All of which is to say that, if you're looking to prognosticate about things (and, of course, we all are), then Colorado may end up closer to Montana's results while Nevada will look more like New Mexico's, whatever those might be.

On the other hand, this poll only indicates that the election will be vastly more difficult for Obama this time arond, though I doubt that Team Obama is losing sleep over losing Montana. That said, if this really does indicate a shift away from the president in the west, then it could spell trouble.

[AaronTX]

06:28 PM on 06/28/2011

You probably didn't like the NM senate poll.

You're probably right, obviously OH, NC, VA have more bang for the buck electorally, but I expect NV and CO will be seriously targeted.

[teron678]

06:04 PM on 06/28/2011

I had no hope of him winning this state in 2012 & though the GOP has a large Republican Registration advantage in MT ... I thought Obama would have been equal if not doing better than he did in 2008 when he lost the state by 4 points ... It's early still he can change this around ... hopefully ...

The good news is he's doing much better than Kerry did in the state in 2004 .. bad news is he is doing worse than he did in 2008 ... Obama needs to make lots of red states competitive like he did in 2008 .. so the GOP will be on the defensive in the G.E ... defending states that were considered safe red states aka fly over states .. so far he is doing this in NC & VA ... and the majority of the swing states ... but failing in MT & MO (2 states he lost by close margins in 2008).

[stillow1]

06:32 PM on 06/28/2011

He lost by 2.3 points, not by 4 in 2008. And Kerry got 39 percent....against the most likely opponent on the list obama gets 41....statisitcally the same.

[teron678]

07:29 PM on 06/28/2011

But Kerry lost by 20 points in 2004

[sportsman885]

07:01 AM on 06/29/2011

That's only if you think Romney gets every single remaining undecided voter, which he obviously won't.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:38 PM on 06/28/2011

And Ohio, FL, and WI have unpopular GOP governors which could help Obama in those states. I predict that Arizona will be in play this year. It could easily be the Indiana of 2012. Brewer's tyranny will backfire, as well as the Gifford's attempted assasination. Not that the latter was her fault, but I thought she was extremely phony in her speech and I am sure her policies and AZs policies in general at privatized prisons, and no background checks for handguns didn't help. I know it is a gun crazy state, but I think the Giffords shooting had an impact.