Will Napa Valley Be Able To Produce Wine In 30 Years?

By 2040 Northern California might have 50% less land suitable for growing premium wine grapes due to climate change. According to a new study by Stanford University, increased temperature can significantly alter the viability of certain grapes in Napa Valley. But, on the flip side, cooler parts of Oregon and Washington will become better wine-growing regions.

The study's coauthor, Noah Diffenbaugh, estimates that in 30 years the average global temperature could be 1.8 degrees higher than today (using standards from the Copenhagen Accord).

Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon grow around 68 degrees; if temperatures increase by two degrees, the varietals will likely not grow as well. To adjust to a warmer planet, Diffenbaugh suggests that Napa vitners plant more heat-tolerant grapes or use an irrigation or trellis system to keep the vines cool.

Comments

[Javani]

10:08 PM on 07/29/2011

"1.8 degrees higher than today (using standards from the Copenhagen Accord)"

Funniest thing I read today. The Copenhagen accord is basically a compact between governments and carbon trading interests with some enviromentalists hanging around as window dressing. Its science is almost non-existent, merely guesses to produce the best returns on pricing carbon credits. It is not IPCC science. Why a scientist from Stanford would uses as a datum Copenhagen rather than IPCC AR4 is either gross mistake, or selecting data specifically to show worst warming scenarios.

[Js420]

11:32 PM on 07/13/2011

Grow hemp!

[Andrew Harvey]

10:21 PM on 07/11/2011

If that decline is associated with a 50% decline in obnoxious wine tastings, I'm all for it.

[StephenBP]

11:12 AM on 07/11/2011

That's odd.... the sun is going into a quiet spell... but the temperature is still rising.....

Not only is the sun going into a quiet spell, but the earth should be entering the cooling phase of a Milankovitch cycle.

And yet, the last year tied for the hottest during the period of scientific recording, and the Arctic ice cover is vying for the record of the lowest ever as I write.

Here is a challenge to denialists. Lets ignore, for a moment, the fact that the majority of climate scientists and atmospheric scientists are suggesting that the earth is going to be presenting increasingly difficult climate challenges to humans in the years ahead… lets ignore that for a moment, because a lot of people have trouble with that, and because even people who are skeptical of human caused global warming are starting to recognize that some kinds of extreme weather changes are taking place.

Now, if the economic repercussions of either doing nothing or of doing something are starting to look very problematic.... in view of all that, shouldn't denialists and warmers be starting to look for common ground in regards to what we should do about all of this, whatever the cause?
In other words, is it that tall of an order to ask people to act like adults, or at least like well behaved kindergarteners, when there is a significant risk in both taking action, and in doing nothing?

[TYRANNASAURUS]

11:09 AM on 07/11/2011

Will Napa Valley Still Be Able To Produce Wine In 30 Years?

This will be a moot point in 30 years because of GLOBAL WARMING.

[Steveh0607]

09:48 AM on 07/11/2011

Fortunately, climate observations have never matched the computer models. However, the Sun is going quiet which, historically, has meant cooler temperatures.

Napa has nothing to worry about from a climate stand point.

[Tygartman]

08:41 AM on 07/11/2011

How do you propose building a giant thermostat for the earth....seeing how we don't want temperatures to change, yet they have always changed.

[HAlexandria]

07:23 PM on 07/12/2011

Purging all tea baggers and climate change deniers from our midsts would result in lower C02 emission and a sharp increase in the global IQ.

I'm not seeing a downside.

[Ishmael1]

06:10 AM on 07/11/2011

Napa, and to a lesser extent, Sonoma counties DO seem to be on the horns of a dilemna. But, if I were looking for potential vinyard land now, I would look closer to the coast along the Russian River watershed since it will be less affected by temperature extremes being closer to the marine layer of the Pacific Coast. An analogous situation is the vinyard areas of Santa Barbara and San Benito counties including the Santa Ynez Valley of the Central Coast.

[orange county man]

09:32 PM on 07/10/2011

No big deal. Napa will be the new Palm Springs and Seattle will be the new Napa.

[garystartswithg]

11:18 PM on 07/10/2011

And what will Palm Springs be? Scottsdale? Oh the horror.

[Gumbo Limbo]

08:21 PM on 07/10/2011

Perhaps then, Napa can do what it does best - sell auto parts.

[Big0725]

08:31 PM on 07/10/2011

:)

http://wavs.unclebubby.com/wav/SOUNDFX/rimshot.wav

[Ishmael1]

06:11 AM on 07/11/2011

Or go back to growing prunes like they did during Prohibition.

[eaarth2]

04:19 PM on 07/10/2011

certain wines of high quality demand a temperature of close tolerances.

If climate models are correct- wine growing in the Napa valley will shift somewhat- more mid priced wines- and less high end wines.

[tonewheel]

08:18 PM on 07/10/2011

Precisely, thank you!

If people bothered to read the article and draw knowledgable conclusions, we wouldn't have the ridiculous postings, below.

[crom14]

12:57 PM on 07/10/2011

Can grapes be grown in a greenhouse?

[tksensei]

06:23 AM on 07/10/2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0&feature=related

[StephenBP]

10:38 PM on 07/09/2011

Climate change seems to be frightening to conservatives who are comfortable with the status quo. Those who are delighted to live the life they have been given are loath to see the road for their apple cart be the least bit bumpy. To those with a passion for the gasoline driven life style, people who are interested in investigating climate change are not unlike sign wielding doom prophets throwing roadblocks in front of their cart.

Right now, the denialist crowd and their cheerleaders are loath to even contemplate changing a single thing in their life style in response to a problem they are BEING LED TO BELIEVE is not even happening. In fact, they are angry and resentful, and understandably so.

But many reputable scientiests say that man made climate change is happening. And it is not unreasonable to believe that vintners will struggle with the resulting changes. More sobering to anyone who eats food though is the chilling prospect of a world where food production is continually hammered by heat, drought, flooding, or unforeseen biological changes such as new plant parasites in a region.

High food prices resulting from agricultural calamities could be the thing to drown out the paid and unpaid supporters of an unsustainable status quo. And blaming corn-ahol for these problems isn't going to resolve them, although you can be sure that conservatives will blame everything on that admittedly slap happy scheme.

[HazelPethigFan]

06:51 PM on 07/10/2011

"And blaming corn-ahol for these problems isn't going to resolve them,"

Why didn't you say ethanol? oh wait..ethanol.....that's what wine is also since it's fermentation ethyl alcohol from grapes. But oak barrels for grape ethanol must make it ok as opposed to corn ethanol which uses stainless steel and aluminum containers

[onlyaquarterdelusional]

08:51 PM on 07/10/2011

"_______ change seems to be frightenin­g to conservati­ves ". I can remember when Newt was the leader of the GOP in the Congress. He kept talking about returning America back to the "Victorian Age". First, there is never any going back in civilization. Especially 100 years. Second, what was so great about the Victorian Age. Women couldn't vote, African Americans were to a large extent still living under slavery conditions and the US had 2 economic classes. Very rich and everyone else. I guess 20 years later they decided that the money part of the equation was the most important and that gutting the middle class was good enough.

[Dh Barr]

09:40 PM on 07/09/2011

I think they will be able to deal with a minor increase in temperature, if it occurs at all. A far greater threat to CA vintners would be the state cutting off their water supply. Ask the farmers up in the San Joaquin valley about that.

[Bill in CA]

05:55 PM on 07/10/2011

The wine growing region of northern CA (Napa, Sonoma) have no connection to the water problems relating to the central valley. Napa, Sonoma, Marin counties provides its own water collected in reservoirs from winter rains. We are 'off the grid', so to speak, with areas to the south and east.
Bill, Santa Rosa CA

[tonewheel]

08:12 PM on 07/10/2011

Bill, thanks for some facts!

[Ishmael1]

05:56 AM on 07/11/2011

Not QUITE true for Napa county. Napa county buys the bulk of it's water from Solano County and the Lake Berryessa system with only a fraction of water coming from the Napa river watershed. What I find MOST ironic about Napa county's predicament is the bulk of the Berryessa/Putah Creek watershed, including the Lake itself, lie within Napa County. However, when the Federal Bureau of Water Reclamation planned the Berryessa Dam back in the 50's, all but one of the All-Republican Napa County Board of Supervisors at that time chose not to opt in to the deal as it would raise property taxes, leaving Solano County to pick up the entire county share of construction costs. Solano used this cheap water over the years to foster the growth of suburban sprawl along the I-80 corridor and then used THOSE property tax revenues to bay off the bonds for the dam early, thus taking ownership of the BULK of Napa County's water 20 years early. I know all this because the LONE Republican voice of reason on the Napa BOS who voted FOR the dam was my wife's step-dad.