NH-2012 Primary: 29% Romney, 12% Bachmann, 9% Giuliani, 8% Palin (ARG 7/9-13)

American Research Group
7/9-13/11; 600 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
ARG release

New Hampshire

2012 President: Republican Primary
29% Romney
12% Bachmann
9% Giuliani
8% Palin
7% Giuliani
5% Pawlenty
4% Paul
4% Cain
2% Perry
2% Santorum
(chart)

Comments

[AaronTX]

12:35 AM on 07/15/2011

I know this is ARG, but if most of the Palin support went towards Bachmann, which it probably would, Romney is in trouble even in NH.

[stillow1]

01:48 AM on 07/15/2011

Not really, because one would also assume in this poll that most of rudy's support would go to romney. Players like tpaw may drop somewhat early and I would think most of his support would also go to romney.

IMO there is no question we will get romney vs someone. I also still think Cain can rally and make a move. he has a charisma about him that none of the others really have, except maybe SP but she is not running.

[AaronTX]

01:59 AM on 07/15/2011

I don't think SP is running either, which is disappointing. I really thought she would a few months ago.

We must remember this is ARG. Plus I'm quite annoyed at polls right now that include unannounced or speculative candidates like Rudy. There are 7 republicans announced, they should be the ones polled.

[AaronTX]

12:33 AM on 07/15/2011

I know Perry isn't announced, but I'm starting to sense that his timing may have been off this time around, which is uncharted territory for him. Apparently he's concerned about finance and he hasn't polled well in IA lately and now not NH. I thought Bachmann might steal his thunder if he continued to be coy about running.

I don't think Perry wants to get in and be the equivalent of Pawlenty, Gingrich, or another also-ran. He's never lost a race and probably will not accept anything less than top 3. He may be sensing the finance isn't there.

I'll give it 6 more weeks. If no major changes have ocurred by then, Bachmann is going to be the primary anti-Romney. Funny. I never thought it would be her.

[Xenobion]

02:21 AM on 07/15/2011

No way Perry gets in. No money to run. Palin maybe.