Hurricane Irene 2011: Climate Change To Blame?

It's been one of the most hotly debated questions this week: Is climate change driving Hurricane Irene?

"No one is going to point to Irene and say this is climate change," Kim Knowlton, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The Huffington Post. "But we can say that we are seeing the fingerprint of climate change this year."

Knowlton was of course referring to the growing list of extreme weather events that have ravaged the U.S. in 2011 -- from tornadoes and flooding, to droughts and heat waves. And now millions of Americans, many of whom have never seen a real tropical storm in their lifetime, are facing a major hurricane.

Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with “more destructive potential” have been linked to climate change as far back as the 1970s, Knowlton said. And higher wind speeds and larger quantities of rain are expected to accompany future storms, much like the one currently beating its way up the East Coast. Whether or not climate change actually affects the frequency of hurricanes is more intensely debated.

Jay Gulledge, a senior scientist at the nonprofit Pew Center on Global Climate Change, told HuffPost in an interview last month that global warming is also redistributing storms -- sending more on a northward trajectory. This means cities like New York and Boston are in danger, and perhaps especially so because their infrastructure wasn't been built to sustain hurricane force winds and storm surges.

That vulnerability to hurricanes is further magnified by other factors, some of which are actually more tightly linked to climate change than hurricanes themselves.

Jeff Masters, a meteorologist with Weather Underground, who has been closely following American weather patterns, told HuffPost that some of the storm's worst consequences, particularly the flooding, is being exacerbated by the long-term trend of rising sea levels.

"Sea levels around New York have gone up 13 inches over last hundred years," Masters said. "What that means is that the five foot wall protecting Manhattan is one foot less able to keep water out than it was a century ago. This is going to be a kind of wake-up call for New York City: It's the first time they're going to have to evacuate from Zone A, and it's not going to be the last."

The latest Gallup poll released Friday reports that Americans considered climate change less of a problem in 2010 than in years past: only 55 percent of those polled thought that it posed a threat to them and their families. Perhaps that figure will change when 2011 is done with us.

Joshua Hersh contributed to this report

Comments

[Publicola]

12:58 PM on 09/06/2011

AGW "Skeptics"­: God Will Protect Us From Global Warming

Prominent global warming "skeptics" including climate scientist Roy Spencer, ­purported "hockey stick" slayer Ross McKitrick and Joseph D'Aleo (Icecap blog) preach that per Biblical prophesy God will protect us from global warming, along with other Christian fundamentalist signatorie­s of the Cornwall Alliance's "Evangelic­al Declaration on Global Warming":

http://www.cornwallalliance.org/blog/item/prominent-signers-of-an-evangelical-declaration-on-global-warming/

Roy Spencer is moreover on the Cornwall Alliance's Board of Advisers.

http://www.cornwallalliance.org/about/board-of-advisors/

More from the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardshi­p of Creation on their religious fundamentalist belief that per the Bible God will protect us from global warming:

----------­----------­---
The world is in the grip of an idea: that burning fossil fuels... is causing global warming that will be so dangerous that we must stop it by reducing our use...

We believe that idea... fails the tests of theology..­. with a worldview of the Earth and its climate system contrary to that taught in the Bible...

God’s wisdom, power, and faithfulness justify confidence that Earth’s ecosystems are robust and will, by God’s providence­, accomplish the purposes He set for them.
----------­----------­----
http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/a-renewed-call-to-truth-prudence-and-protection-of-the-poor.pdf

givemtheirwish:"…Rev ALGORE…"

Science denier irony is eternal.

[givemtheirwish]

10:03 PM on 09/04/2011

GloBULL Warming Alarmist Meltdown #2098
"Nurse Ratched, pass the Alprazolam for Rev ALGORE"

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), already under severe criticism for violating the requirements of academic peer review and relying on secondary sources, comes under question again in a new report coproduced by three nonprofit research organizations.

Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report states, “natural causes are very likely to be [the] dominant” cause of climate change that took place in the twentieth and the start of the twenty-first centuries. The report also presents new research on a variety of additional climate change issues.

http://climatephysics.org/climate-change-reconsidered-the-2011-interim-report/

[Publicola]

12:52 PM on 09/06/2011

Debunked: NIPCC Report Lead Author Bob Carter

NIPCC Report Lead Author Uses Trick to Hide The Incline in Global Warming, a­s statistician Tamino demonstrates.*

givemtheirwish: "Climate Change Reconsider­ed: 2011 Interim Report states…"

"Climate Change Reconsider­ed: The 2011 Interim Report" is the latest "NIPCC Report" by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC); a lead author is the debunked Robert M. "Bob" Carter.

NIPCC Report lead author Bob Carter is a leader of and/or contributor to several of the most prominent organizations that are "skeptical­" of man-made global warming including:

* The Heartland Institute

* The Science & Public Policy Institute (SPPI)

* The Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

* The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

* The International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC)

Dear givemtheirwish,

Isn't NIPCC Report lead author Bob Carter committing de facto global warming fraud by representing increasing global temperature data as flat? *

If you disagree again please provide a valid scientific rational to support your answer, which you have repeatedly failed to do - thank you.

------------------
* http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/07/bob_carters_trend_lines.php
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/bob-carter-does-his-business/

[jimboy71]

10:02 PM on 09/07/2011

Ah, drivel.

[SonyaInTx]

08:15 AM on 09/01/2011

Irene would be because of climate change in the sense that we will see a greater frequency of storms.

I would love to see the push for wind energy. Go to Europe. Germany have wind turbines everywhere.

Americans need to get over the "it will spoil the view" thinking and embrace the fact that oil is running out, $4+ gas prices, warming planet, and stronger/more destructive weather events should be a wake up call to change the way we approach energy consumption....

[texfly]

07:36 PM on 08/31/2011

To blame Irene on climate change is absurd. We've had numerous hurricanes track up the east coast causing flooding and devastation over my lifetime. Dollars worth of damage are idiotic measures too. If we a good estimates of the area and total rainfall integrated over the track that we could compare to those of the last 50-80 years, we might, note MIGHT, be able to make some assessment. But we don't so all you news folks just stick to the stories at a hand don't try to play the climate card every chance you get.

[eaarth2]

05:16 PM on 08/31/2011

Shumlin is totally correct
as climate models have predicted- what is coming true

In James Hansen's Storms of My Grand-children' he describes the melting in the arctic -cooling the waters- and increasing heat in mid latitudes causing an extreme gradient-

more extreme storms, precipitation----- read the book- worse news- its going to become worse- far worse.

[wanderthewest]

11:12 PM on 08/30/2011

only hotly debated by idiots

[realpolitic]

08:07 PM on 08/30/2011

It is very interesting that climate change is changing the path of hurricanes so they follow a more northward trajectory and making them more destructive, therefore, to cities like Boston and New York.  Considering the sea level in now 13 inches higher than it was 100 years ago the storm surge of a severe storm can do a lot of damage.  People in lower laying parts of New York are going to get used to evacuating, I bet.

[Publicola]

03:25 PM on 08/30/2011

U.S. National Academy of Sciences (2010)
------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities­. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon­, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanation­s…

Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782

[Publicola]

03:26 PM on 08/30/2011

Que:

Heartland Institute apologist agwScam tries again to smear the the U.S. National Academy of Sciences with Heartland Institute and/or similar science denier propaganda, just as he has repeatedly tried to smear the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Physical Society, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the preeminent peer-reviewed science journals Science and Nature, and every other reputable scientific organizational entity that supports the scientific consensus on global warming.

Heartland Institute apologist agwScam is so predictable.

[wanderthewest]

11:13 PM on 08/30/2011

What you say is true, but you can't blame one hurricane event on climate change just like you can't use one cold snap to refute it. It's climate folks...not weather.

[Publicola]

11:11 AM on 08/31/2011

Agreed. That said per prominent hurricane experts (though not all) global warming is likely to drive increased hurricane intensity if it has not done so already.

[Chatt]

02:56 PM on 08/30/2011

Wake me up when all the Chicken Little's of the world quit their rants about the sky falling.

[Publicola]

03:21 PM on 08/30/2011

You mean the incessant rants about a global conspiracy by climate scientists to destroy American and democracy? Yeah, I'm quite bored of that ridiculousness too.

[lbsaltzman]

08:31 PM on 08/30/2011

As I often say Chicken Little was right. We should all be very alarmed about the climate catastrophe that is unfolding before our eyes. Alarm and fear are as appropriate to feel about global warming as they would be if a grizzly bear was chasing us.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

02:49 PM on 08/30/2011

What amazes me is how leftist like to say skeptics are deniers for not supporting "documented" Gloabal Warming science, yet they have no problem supporting "undocumented" immigrants.

[hyader]

05:15 PM on 08/30/2011

outstanding,,,,, this needs to be borrowed

[gallon]

04:26 PM on 08/31/2011

No science here. Just wingnut slogans.

[jrpup]

11:02 AM on 08/30/2011

cosmic rays

[Publicola]

12:29 PM on 08/30/2011

That's so cosmic.

[jimboy71]

10:08 PM on 09/02/2011

Infinite density.

[rosey7]

10:45 AM on 08/30/2011

firejack007,
We agree.The fact that we had income taxes in the 70-91% rates until the 80's is a fact. Were we prospering from the 40's through Bill Clinton ? Of course we were. The only hiccup in the recovery from Great depression was in FDR's term when he listened to republicans and stopped investing in infrastructure. When that didn't work, FDR went back to his core beliefs of building this country and putting enough people to work so that demand for products was grown. You might be able to liken the loss of regulation on alcohol, which was illegal for a very short time to the legalization of pot. But, the regulation of a recreational product is not the same as ending regulations on pollution amounts spewed in out air,land and water. NAFTA, which was insisted on by the republican controlled house and senate and Pres. Clinton signed brought on unfair trade agreements that still plague us.Only, if we spend our way through infrastructure , education and re education will this country remain great. Go to China. The high speed rails get you anywhere and are inter connected. But, remember, the Chinese are going high tech all the way. The era of cheap anything from them is over. Best, we re think trade and what is fair and start producing here.

[StephenBP]

10:11 AM on 08/30/2011

"No one is going to point to Irene and say this is climate change," Kim Knowlton, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The Huffington Post. "But we can say that we are seeing the fingerprint of climate change this year."

For instance, last year tied as the warmest year, global average wise, since records have been kept.

Right now, the Arctic Ice surface area is the second lowest on record for this date, and Arctic ice volume is believed to be the lowest volume since satellite surveillance of area began.

If the anthropogenic global climate change denialists are correct, we should be seeing an end to extreme weather any day now... yep.... any moment now... you just wait.... going to be “normal” weather again shortly.......Glacier National Park should start growing, because we are really in a period of global “cooling”, not warming! Yep! You jes wait....

[bd7769]

10:31 AM on 08/30/2011

You assume that those who do not believe in manmade global warming as the cause of climate changes are also denying that climates don't change.

[Exusian]

10:37 AM on 08/30/2011

One has to wonder if English is your second language.

[wanderthewest]

11:16 PM on 08/30/2011

it's safe to say that they are denying the physical properties of carbon dioxide

[Papa Swamp]

08:36 AM on 08/30/2011

Climate is always changing. It is not due to human activities (globally..locally/regionally yes). The earth runs in heating and cooling cycles based on tilt and solar/cosmic activity.
Milankovitch cycles shows how change in tilt/aspect of the earth in relation to the sun impact heating and cooling cycles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Coupled with the recent discovery by CERN on the impact of particles on the earth basically kills off the CO2 warming theory….it's just no one wants to admit it. CERN muzzled the scientists that made the discovery and redacted many aspects….quite simply due to the fear of loosing govt funding. This is what interferes with science and makes it political.

Before everyone pops a gasket…yes I want off fossil fuels. Clean energy is there and so is the technology and I understand the fear of if this information it let out it will kill off funding for green projects, but at the same time science should never be muzzled. Humans need to make the leap away from fossil fuels (also protected due to corporate/military/industrial profits which pay for politicians). It is a complex problem with no comfortable solution.
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/08/26/lawrence-solomon-science-now-settled/

[qwert1234]

08:42 AM on 08/30/2011

"Climate is always changing."

Who said it wasn't? Who?

"Milankovit­ch cycles shows how change in tilt/aspec­t of the earth in relation to the sun impact heating and cooling cycles."

So Milankovitch cycles are responsible for the observed warming trend? Do you have a paper to support that?

"Coupled with the recent discovery by CERN on the impact of particles on the earth basically kills off the CO2 warming theory."

Explain to me how cosmic rays potentially seeding clouds explains the warming trend. I'll wait.

[Papa Swamp]

10:25 AM on 08/30/2011

I take it you are incapable of reading the references at the bottom of the article I linked for Milankovi­t­ch cycles? All the scientific papers are listed.

As to CERN it is better explained:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/24/breaking-news-cern-experiment-confirms-cosmic-rays-influence-climate-change/

Though again at the very bottom of the article I originally cited the redacted graph is included showing the influence.

[Exusian]

10:44 AM on 08/30/2011

I'll take that you are incapable of understanding the Milankovi­­t­ch cycles, since they are completely irrelevant to the current warming.

[fumes]

08:44 AM on 08/30/2011

Ford And Diesel Never Intended Cars To Use Gasoline

When Henry Ford told a New York Times reporter that ethyl alcohol was "the fuel of the future" in 1925, he was expressing an opinion that was widely shared in the automotive industry. "The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like that sumach out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust -- almost anything," he said. "There is fuel in every bit of vegetable matter that can be fermented. There's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years."

Henry Ford's first Model-T was built to run on hemp gasoline and the CAR ITSELF WAS CONSTRUCTED FROM HEMP! On his large estate, Ford was photographed among his hemp fields. The car, 'grown from the soil,' had hemp plastic panels whose impact strength was 10 times stronger than steel; Popular Mechanics, 1941.

Rudolf Diesel, the inventor of the diesel engine, designed it to run on vegetable and seed oils like hemp; he actually ran the thing on peanut oil for the 1900 World's Fair.

As for an alternative to petroleum...

Hemp grows like mad from border to border in America; so shortages are unlikely.

Hemp fuel is biodegradable; so oil spills become fertilizer not eco-catastrophes.

Growing hemp for fuel would be a tremendous boon for American farmers and the agricultural industry.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=872

[bd7769]

08:54 AM on 08/30/2011

The closest candidate in the main political parties with have that is pro-hemp would be Ron Paul. He has become the new progressive of the 21st century.

[Papa Swamp]

09:21 AM on 08/30/2011

Great info….of course no one would go to war over hemp or peanuts….

[bd7769]

08:29 AM on 08/30/2011

Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with “more destructive potential” have been linked to climate change as far back as the 1970s, Knowlton said

Please disregard the great hurricane in 1938, killed over 600 people, or Edna in 1954, or Carol in 1954, or Dog in 1950, or 1944 great hurricane, or the hurricane in 1924.

[StephenBP]

09:59 AM on 08/30/2011

People in the North East had no warning of the hurricane in 1938. People were swimming on the beach one moment and swept away the next. Spotter planes, satellites, radar and knowledgeable meteorologists were not available at the time. One young meteorologist was said to have tried to raise the warming, but he was over-ridden by his stodgy old guard superiors.

Climate change denialists sure remind me of stodgy, old guard , status quo meteorologists of old. "It can't happen here!".

[bd7769]

10:48 AM on 08/30/2011

I agree early warning is much improved, but all of the storms I listed were higher rated category storms than the one we had this past week.
The statement made was in reference to the "more destructive potential" of storms linked to climate change.
Storms are not any more or less destructive than before, except today we have early warning capabilities to reduce impacts, but this is offset by far more crowed impact areas. The articles statement was a false relationship between climate change and potential destructive impacts. There are more factors associated with storm impacts and their destructive potential than just changes to climate.

[jimboy71]

10:11 PM on 09/02/2011

When did we begin burning stuff again?