The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For September 9, 2011

This week, the 2012 campaign took a trip to Simi Valley, California, where the Reagan Library played host to another of the 382 debates that are scheduled between now and All Saints Day. How did it go? Basically it went like this:

MODERATORS: Hey, Mitt Romney! What do you think about this Rick Perry fellow? My, he is shiny, and Texan!

ROMNEY: I have some qualities of my own that actually distinguish me as the better candidate.

MODERATORS: Oh, ho! Rick Perry, you're not going to just sit there and take it, are you? You are Texan after all, and are supposed to have 'swagger.'

PERRY: Well, you know. I also have some qualities that I think distinguish me as the better candidate.

MODERATORS: You don't say?

PERRY: No. I did say.

OTHER CANDIDATES: Hey, are you going to ask any of us any questions?

MODERATORS: Sorry! We forgot about all you other guys! So, other guys, what do you think of Mitt Romney and/or Rick Perry?

OTHER CANDIDATES: Seriously? I mean, we came all the way here to participate in this.

MODERATORS: Sure, sure. But we established yesterday that this was the narrative. That today would be about Rick Perry and Mitt Romney? Many of us actually predicted that this is what would happen today.

OTHER CANDIDATES: We're just saying.

MODERATORS: Did we mention that Rick Perry has presided over the executions of hundreds of people?

[WILD APPLAUSE FROM THE AUDIENCE]

That was the general thrust of the evening, anyway. But when all was said and done, members of the media got what they came for -- commotion, contention, and talk of last night's troublemakers and dealbreakers. Mitt Romney's campaign team left the library certain they'd found Perry's Achilles Heel: Perry's stance on social security, which he called a "Ponzi scheme" and a "monstrous lie." And the post-game chatter reflected a consensus mindset -- Romney was the winner, because he was more "presidential" or "adult" or "electable." Did Perry really do himself in, though, given the state of the GOP base today?

Maybe not. But he definitely did himself in with Ron Paul supporters. Paul came to the debate having taken a shot at Perry's party bona fides. The Perry camp had answered by questioning Paul's own fealty to the Reagan legacy. Normally, you'd expect that to be the extent to one of these internecine contretemps, but the tension spilled over at the debate, and when the television cameras were off, photographers captured the confrontation on film. The resulting images angered the Paulites -- it all but ensured that they'd add cash to Paul's coffers. (Paul's own statements that night, however, which included the contention that a Mexican border fence could be used to fence in Americans, all but ensured that Paul wouldn't be adding too many new supporters to his ranks.)

Through it all, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann were practically forgotten -- by the moderators and their opponent Jon Huntsman, who, having bought his way back into the media's graces by calling his opponents' "cranks," shrunk from making that charge to their faces. Newt Gingrich, as he had at the Fox debate, objected to the moderators' attempts to get the candidates to enunciate the differences between them. Like the Fox moderators, the MSNBC moderators recognized that this was a debate, not a campfire sing-a-long, and went on to demonstrate that zero was the number of craps they gave about Gingrich's criticism. (Their very next question was directed to Herman Cain, who answered by discerning the difference between himself and Romney, so the Cain Train wasn't docking at Gingrich's "let's all agree to get along" station.)

By the end of the week, Romney and Perry were cemented as frontrunners, and the other candidates were cemented as afterthoughts. And we have to say ... September 2011 is a strange time for the media to picking winners in a primary contest that's only now getting underway. Gary Johnson, a candidate who was excluded from the debate, best articulated this in a statement he proferred from exile: “If Republicans and Independents were looking for new ideas and decisive plans in the debate, they were disappointed. That’s what happens when the media decides, six months before the first ballots are cast, who should be allowed on the stage...There is much to debate in this country today, and within the Republican party. But we didn’t see or hear a debate tonight. We saw business-as-usual wrapped in a bunch of different packages.”

Johnson has a point. For the rest of this week of campaign trail sturm und drang, please feel free to enter the Speculatron for the week of September 9, 2011.

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Michele Bachmann

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It seems that Michele Bachmann has become all but forgotten since winning the Ames Straw Poll, despite the fact that for at least one weekend, we were told that there was nothing in America more important than a few thousand Iowans tromping around Iowa State University, eating fried cholesterol and cold straw pollin' themselves to death. Since then, we've been locked in Perry-Romney-palooza, and Bachmann has become an afterthought, her presence barely recognized at this week's debate. But while the media's tendency to pick winners and baste themselves into an obsession over the next big storyline has played a role in Bachmann's decline, her campaign's had some internal troubles, too. Earlier this week, Ed Rollins, the campaign vet, the guy expected to impose some strict message discipline on a candidate often bound for left field, stepped down from his day-to-day role with the campaign into an advisory position. Rollins cited health concerns, but one can't help but recall that he once expressed some hope that Rick Perry would "stay in Texas" and opt out of the presidential run that polling wonks predicted -- accurately, it seems -- would cut dramatically into Bachmann's support. Rollins' deputy, David Polyansky, also took his leave of the campaign, and so far as anyone knows, is a hale and healthy fellow, save for a case of the Sudden Onset Perry Campaign Oh Noes! Rollins is being replaced at the top by campaign strategist Keith Nahigian. Why did Rollins take his leave? It's possible that he thinks Perry's entrance into the race really does doom Bachmann's bid. It's also possible that with Bachmann showing no signs of refraining from saying batty things about God sending messages via hurricanes, the job of keeping her reasonable-sounding is a hopeless task. As 1115.org points out, "the replacing of top aides has been a defining characteristic of the bottom tier of GOP primary candidates," and has been seen in many campaigns already, including those of Jon Huntsman and, most notably, Newt Gingrich. But Paul Waldman points out that with Rollins, you get a guy who's not known for sticking things out:

Rollins is made out to be one of the savants of Republican operatives (his decision to work for Bachmann helped boost her from the fringe to the crème of the crop candidates), but he has a checkered past with few actual successes. Rollins struck it big by managing Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection campaign that won 49 of the 50 states. Yet after that, his candidates went nowhere. He advised Jack Kemp's 1988 campaign that failed to win any primaries, resigned just two months into helming Ross Perot's 1992, and led Mike Huckabee's 2008 campaign that went little further than winning the Iowa Caucuses.

He goes on to note that Bachmann is well-known for staff turnover. And many of her old staffers are of the opinion that she shouldn't be president! So what's Bachmann to do? Stay in the spotlight as best she can, which is part of the reason that she did another one of her rebuttal speech sessions last night (she is apparently against anyone becoming employed as long as there is an "Obama administration"). She can also take on the frontrunners -- so far she's opted to battle Mitt Romney, but not Rick Perry ... for now. And with no Ed Rollins to corral her, Bachmann is free to let her Bachmann flag fly! So she's speaking out against many of the things she hates, like the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Supreme Court, whose legal rulings haven't always met her standards. Some good news: she's apparently no longer in favor of slashing benefits for America's veterans, probably because someone told her that they tend to vote in elections. We also learn this week that the people behind the "Dump Michele Bachmann" blog have planned to release an anti-Bachmann book of their own, titled "The Madness of Michele Bachmann: A Broad-minded Survey of a Small-Minded Candidate," near the November release of Bachmann's own campaign tome. Of course, by November, who knows? Maybe neither book will be necessary. Save some trees maybe!

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It seems that Michele Bachmann has become all but forgotten since winning the Ames Straw Poll, despite the fact that for at least one weekend, we were told that there was nothing in America more important than a few thousand Iowans tromping around Iowa State University, eating fried cholesterol and cold straw pollin' themselves to death. Since then, we've been locked in Perry-Romney-palooza, and Bachmann has become an afterthought, her presence barely recognized at this week's debate.

But while the media's tendency to pick winners and baste themselves into an obsession over the next big storyline has played a role in Bachmann's decline, her campaign's had some internal troubles, too. Earlier this week, Ed Rollins, the campaign vet, the guy expected to impose some strict message discipline on a candidate often bound for left field, stepped down from his day-to-day role with the campaign into an advisory position. Rollins cited health concerns, but one can't help but recall that he once expressed some hope that Rick Perry would "stay in Texas" and opt out of the presidential run that polling wonks predicted -- accurately, it seems -- would cut dramatically into Bachmann's support.

Rollins' deputy, David Polyansky, also took his leave of the campaign, and so far as anyone knows, is a hale and healthy fellow, save for a case of the Sudden Onset Perry Campaign Oh Noes! Rollins is being replaced at the top by campaign strategist Keith Nahigian.

Why did Rollins take his leave? It's possible that he thinks Perry's entrance into the race really does doom Bachmann's bid. It's also possible that with Bachmann showing no signs of refraining from saying batty things about God sending messages via hurricanes, the job of keeping her reasonable-sounding is a hopeless task. As 1115.org points out... more

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Comments

[Nameless Revolution]

01:12 AM on 09/14/2011

There will not be a real challenge from the Right because Obama governs from the Center. The effect of an empowered Right would ultimately inject values that have become increasingly unpopular since the arrival of the Tea-Party, now the least popular group in America.

Unfortunately, in pandering to those Right of Center, Obama has all but alienated his own base. This means while the Right will try to vote him out, those on the Left will vote for him only because they are worried about who would replace him. YET THAT IS WHAT THE LEFT NEEDS TO CONSIDER. Who or what should replace Obama's record?

The Left needs to figure out what it really wants and decide whether Obama can deliver on those demands. Obama's weakness is in catering to the middle, the fringe on both sides are made equally unhappy. Only when it comes together to demand a clean, sustainable, fair market that protects people against exploitation of any kind, and suspends its vote for anyone but those who support these tenets, Obama will be forced to move to the Left in order to maintain the demographic.

This requires a publicized conversation where leaders on the Left challenge Obama for the privilege to represent an equally relevant end of the spectrum. For the United States government to function successfully, the political spectrum has to be transcended so the Right and Left work together to ensure mutual prosperity.

[rhettcbowling]

04:33 PM on 09/12/2011

Who trusts these people anyway? I know I don't!

[scotmcdougall]

03:50 PM on 09/12/2011

I'm not a fan of Santorum, but any stretch of the imagination, but that Chris Matthews was pounding him for NOT being asked a question? What was that all about anyway?

[ethiopia1a]

03:07 PM on 09/12/2011

Some hypocrisy going on here? Bachmann's $2/gal gas is a tremendous fraud.

[JrayTo]

03:03 PM on 09/12/2011

new cnn poll: bachmann approval rating: only 4%

[ethiopia1a]

02:56 PM on 09/12/2011

Michele, don't forget to mention the "oil drilling in the Everglades" idea to the Floridians tonight. They're gonna love it !

[surfinnonreality]

02:13 PM on 09/12/2011

The Republicans could have learned someting from obama. Don't put your political activities on tv at the same time as a pro football game. Although a Tea Party / CNN sponsored debate seems almost oxymoronic. The conservatives have no use for CNN and the liberal/progressives have no use for the Tea Party. Will anyone watch?

[sammi 56]

02:53 PM on 09/12/2011

Go take a pill --maybe it will give you some Knowledge. Or maybe stay away from fox, that would be a big plus!

[cureyourosity]

01:55 PM on 09/12/2011

IMO if Mark Rubio entered the field it would be over for the rest of the GOP candidates. Not even Christy could beat him. However, since this is the group until next November, so be it. In truth, the election is really Obama's to lose and he's doing a terrific job of that!

[sammi 56]

02:55 PM on 09/12/2011

Is Rubio an independent?? Didn't think so.....so you really are a replkkican

[cureyourosity]

10:50 AM on 09/13/2011

That's your response?! Weak...Well you're really like your party's symbol... a dumb donkey! Everyone knows Rubio is not an independent so what's your point? That anyone I talk about must be from a third party? No--the beauty is I'm not beholden to kiss butt on any party. Please point out the other candidates from the DEMs that are opposing Barak for the presidency? Barak's record is so bad now that if he weren't president there would be a flood gates of DEMs running against him. My choice by the way was the person that should have had the nomination, Hillary but leave it to the donkeys to nominate an unqualified, inexperienced, half term senator instead.

[Lawrence Grant]

03:10 PM on 09/12/2011

Marko Rubio? I see someone got their medical marijuana card.

[iconoclast6]

01:35 PM on 09/12/2011

Off topic, but a week from Saturday begins Βanned Books Week. Assert your freedom to access the information you want! Read a book that has at some time been bαnned.

"1984," "Ulysses," "Catcher in the Rye," "On The Road," and "The Handmaid's Tale" have all been_banned.

If your tastes are more erοtic, there's "My Secret Life" or "Tropic of Cαncer."

There are "conservative" bαnned books too. "Animal Farm," "Brave New World," "Huckleberry Finn" are all good choices.

But if you're a liberal, read one of the "conservative" ones. If you're a conservative, try Kerouac or Hunter S. Thompson. You might be surprised.

More info: http://www.ala.org/ala/issuesadvocacy/banned/bannedbooksweek/index.cfm

[Ricardo01]

01:19 PM on 09/12/2011

What could be more confused as a Tea Party member from Florida? All of them pushing for the end of Social Security when all the while, it is their primary means of support.

[marluz]

03:55 PM on 09/12/2011

Can somebody explain to the senior citizens in Florida what the tea party is about? They want to cut your social security and your medicare! Wake up to reality! You will be doomed if you vote for them again!

[Winkandanod]

01:15 PM on 09/12/2011

Someone in Gary Johnson's campaign should discourage the use of the file photo of him in front of a giant photo of his own face. He ain't the most photogenic fellow in the world.

[Winkandanod]

01:10 PM on 09/12/2011

ROFLMAO

That Herman Cain skit was the funniest thing I've seen since Dave Chappele did the black white supremacist Clayton Bigsby. Hot damn that was funn - huh? You mean he was serious?

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah hah!

[LightSnowOvernight]

01:08 PM on 09/12/2011

I travel a lot and see the same polarization in almost every country I visit...much more pronounced than before....why is that? problems more serious? influence of the internet? ?

[jmc 80]

01:06 PM on 09/12/2011

The cast of characters the republicans have are definitely not in the same realm as a Ronald Reagan me being a democrat thats saying a lot. This bunch have absolutely no charisma whatsoever.

[sammi 56]

02:57 PM on 09/12/2011

Who Perry?---- Ha

[appeallawy]

01:05 PM on 09/12/2011

A true conservative would renounce all Government benefits. Step up Bachmann, Perry, Ron Paul, Eric Cantor.

[marluz]

03:58 PM on 09/12/2011

I agree with you! Except, those hypocrites depend on their government benefits! F&F!

[Lawrence Grant]

04:06 PM on 09/12/2011

The only thing they will be "stepping up" to is the same trough they are eating from.