US-2012 President: 52% Obama (D), 41% Perry (R) (PPP 9/8-11)

Public Policy Polling (D)
9/8-11/11; 665 likely voters, 3.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

National

2012 President
53% Obama (D), 39% Bachmann (R)
53% Obama (D), 41% Gingrich (R)
52% Obama (D), 41% Perry (R)
49% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Michele Bachmann: 30 / 53
Newt Gingrich: 28 / 57
Rick Perry: 30 / 50
Mitt Romney: 37 / 44
John McCain: 36 / 54

If you could redo the 2008 election for President, would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain
51% Obama (D), 46% McCain (R)

Comments

[Gina Gant]

07:15 PM on 09/13/2011

i think it is time for republican party to regulate the country!We need free marketing again,other wise people do not have money! If you like to have money and a job that is on private sector, economy will grow! I know!

[runrunrun4fun]

11:08 PM on 09/13/2011

Well, do you think...or do you know? My guess is neither. Take a class on grammar.

[Xenobion]

12:20 AM on 09/14/2011

lol

[Xenobion]

12:21 AM on 09/14/2011

Send me your email and I'll sign you up for some free marketing aka spam.

[Field Marshall]

05:47 PM on 09/13/2011

Another day, another PPP attempting to drive the narrative with faulty results. Move along. Nothing to see here. It is funny to see the lefties think this means nearly auto re-election for O'downgrade. I hope they keep thinking that.... Nov. 2012 is going to be a sad night for them.

[stillow1]

06:23 PM on 09/13/2011

they are taking the bend over and grab your ankles approach lately if your a rightie.

Its clear to most they are just feeding blue meat to the base. Remember part of Obama's problem is his base is callapsing and he won't win unless he has a nified base who will turnout...this type of blue meat helps keep them motivated.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

07:37 PM on 09/13/2011

Delusional! The right have their heads in the sand if they think that Perry is not a major underdog as of right now. Does this mean Obama coasts no way, but the repubs better try to curb the C.R.A.Z.Y talk coming out of the T. Party or it just might be Keys 2.0.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

08:46 PM on 09/13/2011

Stillow, you better hope Romney is the nominee, because Perry is toast after his performance the past few debates. His nomination would result in a bigger landslide than Bill Clinton in 1996. Perry won't just increase voter turnout which will favor the Democrats and would only help Obama raise about 4 times the cash, he'll raise vs Romney. Not just progressives and sensible moderates be helping Obama, I think any foreign country worth their salt would be contributing millions to Obama's campaign. All's fair in love war and politics after Citizens United.

[TLSMITH]

06:38 PM on 09/13/2011

So far, PPP has been pretty close to the mark in the special elections in NY, CA, and WI. They actually have the D losing in NY 09 tonight.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

05:41 PM on 09/13/2011

This ones got SNP's pa.nt.ies all in knot! I never put too much stock in a head to head Presidential poll, its all about the electoral votes, but I cant say I am not enjoying watching the righties getting a little hot over this one.

[stillow1]

04:15 PM on 09/13/2011

PPP's just flirting with us.....we'll have to wait about 13 months before they take us to the homecoming dance...but in the meantime they better pay for dinner.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:01 PM on 09/13/2011

I guess you'll start seeing Romney surging again once the tea party sees these polls. Perhaps it might be time for a new front runner to jump in.

If Perry's supporters hold firm to their beliefs and his ego remains big, perhaps they just might nominate him regardless of polls. Besides, if the GOP takes back the senate, but Obama gets re-elected, the tea party just might have more fun. I mean they can continue to blame the president rather than play defense if we have total Republican control and our economy under them improves about as quick as Florida's is under Rick Scott.

I think part of me thinks the Tea party likes making Obama's life miserable more than they would like to see a president elected who is most fit to lead. Nobody I saw at the GOP debate, other than Huntsman, I could ever trust. Romney is all over the place; when it is in his best interest he can sound like Scott Brown and at other times he wants to sound as far right as Rick Perry.

[funkeepickle]

04:00 PM on 09/13/2011

The GOP would be foolish to nominate Perry over Romney. Sure, Romney's political positions change every time the sun rises, but he's already been vetted, and he has the most moderate appeal of anyone in the field. Nominate another crony capitalist Texas Republican governor and Obama won't even have to campaign to rack up a 300-350 EV victory.

[Field Marshall]

05:43 PM on 09/13/2011

Lets see how many incorrect assumptions you made. 1) Wasn't McCain a moderate? Why does the GOP have to nominate a moderate to win when A) 40% of the electorate is conservative while only 20% liberal. B) Obama is a far-left ideologue, further out on the spectrum than Perry, possibly equivalent to a Bachmann or Paul. 2) Didn't the GOP nominate a Texas republican governor twice and didn't he win twice? 3) Even many liberal pundits think Obama the biggest crony capitalist of them all. Check out his economic team and lobbyist/fundraising/union efforts.

[StatsNpolls1]

02:18 PM on 09/13/2011

Starting to pick up more and more on PP's MO.

Most races look like this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_capito_vs_manchin-1949.html

and like this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

PP being the only player in a race.

Cont..

[StatsNpolls1]

02:24 PM on 09/13/2011

Then, there are races like this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html

Once another pollster shows up, PP's results look suspect.

And this is what happens when several other pollsters show up at the party.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls

PP simply picks up its toys and goes home.

[Louis Hirsch]

02:38 PM on 09/13/2011

RCP doesn't distinguish between party and non party polls and they don't here either. I suspect all state polls at this point. McLaughlin and Magellan are Republican polls and PP Pis a Democratic poll so you can split the difference and take the Qunnipac poll in Florida and call it a tie. Or you can just note the direction in each poll when there are multiples and if that agrees you at least have an idea where things are going. On the state level we probably won't have enough polls to next spring or even next fall to make a real read.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

05:43 PM on 09/13/2011

Well, I will go with the educated folks at PPP over your analysis with the help of "realclearpolitics" at least the PPP people have proven they are pretty good at what they do.

[StatsNpolls1]

08:28 PM on 09/13/2011

You are a picture of Impeccable reasoning impersonated.

[runrunrun4fun]

02:03 PM on 09/13/2011

Oh, Dick...I thought with that 1.9-2.1 GPA, you would be doing so much better!

[Political Shakespeare]

02:01 PM on 09/13/2011

Public Policy Polling, despite being a Democratic pollster, has shown it self, on many occasions, to be surprisingly nonpartisan. The same is true with Fox on the other side of the political divide. So, I would think that these polls are fairly accurate, at least for the time being. What surprises me is that Perry and Gingrich are polling at the same percentage. Everyone knows that Gingrich has ZERO chance of winning the nomination. Perhaps Perry is suffering a bit in the polls because of his "Ponzi scheme" comment on social security (even if it does have a grain of truth to it)?

[StatsNpolls1]

02:32 PM on 09/13/2011

"Public Policy Polling, despite being a Democratic pollster, has shown it self, on many occasions, to be surprising­ly nonpartisa­n."

Really? All I am seeing is PP having left-most polls when there are comparisons available. Can you cite some of those "many occasions" where PP is nonpartisan?

[Political Shakespeare]

02:39 PM on 09/13/2011

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/ne/nebraska_senate_bruning_vs_nelson-1885.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html

I would say that these three examples of polling for crucial upcoming senate races help provide some insight into how PPP does not just show Democrats leading by dominating margins.

[Xenobion]

04:31 PM on 09/13/2011

Obviously a burden of proof confusion here. People would have to prove that PPP was partisan. It would be like proving your innocent when you really need to prove that the subject is guilty.

[Mabila]

01:37 PM on 09/13/2011

Good news is good even from a likely source!

[StatsNpolls1]

01:53 PM on 09/13/2011

You are standing on a beach. You spot a hundred-foot high tsunami heading your way, traveling at 500 mph. Your mom says "Don't worry sweetie, it will surely dissipate before it gets to us". For the next two seconds you are content.

[Mabila]

03:11 PM on 09/13/2011

My adrenaline would not allow me to be so dumb!

[DFJ21340]

01:11 PM on 09/13/2011

The head-to-head matchups are probably less predictive of the general election than using approval numbers of the president this far out.

[Briansfunpage]

12:55 PM on 09/13/2011

As a liberal moderate Romney would prove to create a bloodbath election scenario for Obama. This would a really tough opponent. However, the tea party is going to nominate Perry because of his social christian conservative values. Obama is going to get Alan Keyes 2.0.

This is like if the Patriots made it to the Superbowl and had to play the Seahawks this year. It's not going to be a close game in the end.

January 31st: Florida (Likely to change)

February 6th: Iowa caucuses

February 7th: Minnesota GOP caucuses, Missouri, New Jersey

February 14th: New Hampshire

February 18th: Nevada caucuses

February 21st: Wisconsin

February 28th: South Carolina, Arizona, Michigan

March 6th (Super Tuesday): Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Colorado caucuses, Idaho GOP caucuses, Minnesota Democratic caucuses

March 11th: Maine Democratic caucuses

March 13th: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii GOP caucuses, Utah Democratic caucuses

March 20th: Illinois

March 24th: Louisiana

[Dave WI]

01:16 PM on 09/13/2011

Wisconsin is voting today or tomorrow to change the date of it's primary to April 3.

Every state before Super Tuesday (with some exceptions) faces the possibility of not having their delegates count if they do not move their date.

[StatsNpolls1]

01:57 PM on 09/13/2011

The states race for primary significance may be the most interesting race out there. All I know is that both, Iowa and NH, stated that they will do whatever it takes to be first, "even if they have to move it up to before Christmas".

[Symanski]

12:19 PM on 09/13/2011

Skewed sample to drive a media narrative that Obama is in control. I believe Obama will win, especially against Perry, but this is an outlier IMO. Though, to be fair, Perry has looked awful in his first two debates to anyone outside of the Republican party, so who knows. This does confirm what we all know about Romney v. Obama being a much harder path to reelection than Perry v. Obama. In other words, expect Perry to be the nominee a la C O'D (Nut Case-DE).

[Field Marshall]

12:06 PM on 09/13/2011

Wow... PPP is certainly 'exposing' themselves here....

[axt113]

12:30 PM on 09/13/2011

True, they've exposed themselves as a highly accurate and trustworthy polling source

[Field Marshall]

12:32 PM on 09/13/2011

LOL. Like in the NY special election?

[Jeff Bunting]

01:28 PM on 09/13/2011

you're right but field marshal only reads rasmussen polls even though they are often a very inaccurate poll. Like that time when they polled Hawaii the republican was supposedly trailing by 15 points and when election time hit the democrat won by 40 points.

[Symanski]

12:53 PM on 09/13/2011

More accurate than Ras last time, I believe.

[-iVote-]

11:52 AM on 09/13/2011

Still feeling nauseous from last night's debate.

[Symanski]

12:20 PM on 09/13/2011

The cheering from the crowd to let the uninsured 30 year old die instead of providing him medical care was a low point in political debate, for sure. I was embarrassed for our country seeing anyone but Romney open his mouth.

[Field Marshall]

12:37 PM on 09/13/2011

I was the same way when we passed ObamaCare and essentially took a big jump towards a western european nanny-state. So embarrassing. Its also embarrassing how Chinese communists are now more capitalist than the USA thanks to the joker-in-chief in the WH.

[axt113]

12:32 PM on 09/13/2011

Obama's campaign should sponsor daily debates between now and next summer, lol

Give the GOP enough rope to hang themselves