Poll: Obama And House GOP Both In Trouble In 2012

WASHINGTON -- A poll by a Democratic firm reveals the precarious situation facing incumbents of both parties heading into the 2012 election.

The poll, conducted by Democracy Corps, sampled 60 battleground U.S. House districts represented by Republicans and found the President is losing to Rick Perry by 4 points and Mitt Romney by 6 points.

However, by a 51-40 margin, the more that voters in those districts learn about their incumbent Republican Congressman, the less they like him or her, which is down from a 44-42 margin in March.

Dissatisfaction with the current political climate is setting up an unpredictable electoral dynamic heading into the 2012 elections.

With a divided government and some polls showing that between 70 percent and 80 percent of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, it is possible that the elections could turn the political landscape in Washington upside-down.

While President Obama faces sagging poll numbers, Congress faces approval ratings near historic lows. At this early juncture, it is plausible that the nation could end up with a Republican President and a Democratic House in 2013.

This could signal that voter discontent will be directed at their incumbent representatives, even those who were previously popular.

A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, another Democratic group, found that Senator Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) job approval rating had dropped from a 48-36 to 44-45.

Additionally, while voters tend to give poor ratings to Congress as a whole and rate their own representatives highly, this may no longer be the case. The percentage of voters who strongly disapprove of their incumbent congressman has gone up 7 points, from 25 percent to 32 percent, since March.

The Democracy Corps poll was unusual in that it surveyed respondents from House districts carried by President Obama in 2008 but that have incumbent Republican representatives; voters were asked whether they would vote to reelect their current congressman, by name. Seventy-five percent of Democrats, 54 percent of Independents and 20 percent of Republicans said they "can't vote to reelect [the House incumbent]."

Comments

[kyle76066]

10:46 PM on 10/02/2011

I hope for change in 2012, where it will be 'Cain vs. Un-able.'

[Liberal business owner]

11:34 PM on 09/27/2011

I want my President to paint a clear comparison between the Democratic vision of American and the Tea Party vision of the country:

1) Democratic vision supports a safety net that includes a universal healthcare for all people across the entire income spectrum. The Tea Party vision is to let people who cannot afford insurance to not be able to get advance care (sure they can get basic emergency room care but forget about stem cell care, major surgery, etc.. Just die.

2) A program that says that when the private economy has excess capacity, you fill it with public works and infrastructure projects that have long term, definable returns on investment and mske the US a more competitive environment. Tea Party (or Hoover) economics says that you should take further demand out of an already weak economy by trying to balance the budget in a slow growth economy and therefor take further demand out of the economy and further shrink growth or cause recession.

3) Put in government support of green economy jobs (LCD battery factories in MI for example) and help make us a leading economic engine for the next century. Teaparty denies man made climate change in spite of the support of 98% of the respective climate scientists in support of the theory.

Just a few ways that the election needs to be an election about choices going forward.

[stopgov]

10:23 AM on 10/04/2011

The Democrats vision of America is to -

1. destroy business, thus eliminate the american dream and all hope
2. have government run everything, again destroying all hope
3. divide and conquer, by preaching hate and envy.
4. force green and other mandates (Obamacare) down our throats, eliminating the freedom this country was founded on.

Yes, 2010 will be a choice, your freedom, or become a dependent (forever) on the government.

[Tquin]

12:25 PM on 09/27/2011

Obama is going to lose by a greater number than 6 points. The senate will go over to the republicans and the democrats won't be heard from for 10 years.

[lovesGod777]

12:24 PM on 10/03/2011

I hope and earnestly pray that your prediction is correct. I also give and work toward that goal.

[cautious optimist]

03:28 PM on 09/24/2011

Congress seems unwilling and unable to do what we elected them to do. They have their own agendas and they don't care about putting Country before Party. They have been bought by the highest bidders and We seem to have lost our say in how we want the Country to be run.
As citizens of this country I believe we have enough technology to come up with a system where we don't have to rely on Congress to make OUR choices for us. We should be able to vote for everything right from the comfort of our own homes via the internet. Everyone could have a password to get into the system (granted a very protected system which could only be accessed from your own home like when you activate a credit card and it knows if you are calling from your home phone). Since Congress and Washington seem to ignore what " We The People" want. Let us ELIMINATE THEM and decide for ourselves. Let them see for themselves what it is like to be out of a job!

[ron10]

08:28 PM on 09/24/2011

sound good

[stopgov]

10:33 AM on 10/04/2011

I guess that depends upon what you wanted them to do. In 2010, there was no possibility we could do little more than stop the current administration. So I voted and contributed to candidates to try to stop the administration. I consider 2010 to be a success, in that we've stopped Mr. Obama. In 2012, I want to elect candidates to reverse the damage done by Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama. If that doesn't happen, I will work to make more changes in 2014. I want less government, reduced debt, a simplified tax code (flat tax & consumption tax) and fewer regulations.

So the House achieved the only thing they really could have in 2010. So while I'm not happy with things, the House accomplished about all they could have in 2011. Grade B+

[Oletech71]

12:51 AM on 09/24/2011

Let me see now. Since Obama was elected I have seen the USA go from a kickass country to a kissass country. From a prosperous country to a nearly bankrupt country and an administration that refuses to stop the out of control spending. Then from a united country to a divided country with one faction filled with hatred for upper class people and from a country where everyone had a chance to get a job to one where only union jobs are made available. And now I see a poll that blames the Republican Congress for it all . Sorry I refuse to believe it.

[steve tolle]

01:04 AM on 09/24/2011

There will be an election next year so all the speculating will end then

[bassface49]

02:55 AM on 09/24/2011

What caused your 8 year coma?

[mpilkanis]

10:24 PM on 09/23/2011

The low numbers for Congress are thanks to the "teaparty", it's as plain as it can be. Individuals in Congress fighting to protect the shrinking middle class and our government's ability to make a small but positive difference in our lives are definitely NOT the ones dragging the numbers down. I place no particular stock in polling more than twelve months from the election. The public's mood is sour. Wow, film at eleven. The President needs to stop this strategic capitulating because it's upsetting to both the base and interested independent voters. Stand tall and take all the cr@p they can throw, that's my advice. Then move forward and upend the knock-kneed GOP, put them on the defensive and keep them there. Let them eat teacakes.

[stopgov]

10:36 AM on 10/04/2011

Right, .......maybe you should try some tea (not green) instead of the kool-aid.

[Nightangle]

09:14 PM on 09/23/2011

The poll is clearly partisan - skewed towards the Democrat. It's useless.

[indamiddle]

05:42 PM on 09/23/2011

The only poll that matters is RCP. They use ALL the polls.

[indamiddle]

05:41 PM on 09/23/2011

That is why people are dropping out of party politics and becoming Independents. We don't get the brainwashing,snail mail, flyers and emails. We listen to BOTH Maddow and Limbaugh with open minds.

[mas1956]

10:38 PM on 10/02/2011

And Obama has the support of 24-33% of independents, poll dependent, and his numbers get worse with every release of new polling data. He has lost the very people who put him in office.

[stopgov]

10:38 AM on 10/04/2011

I can agree with part of the post, I love Limbaugh, and I enjoy Maddow (my favorite lib).

[indamiddle]

05:37 PM on 09/23/2011

Obama is losing to Perry in a Democratic poll? That's rich LOL

Clean sweep in Washington. If you belong to a party you do not get elected....No more idealgues. Just moderates with common sense.

[Hijeetz Mipanz]

04:48 PM on 09/23/2011

Who needs polls to know the Obama is a complete Failure and will have no chance of winning in 2012. I would not be surprised to see him not run and let Hillary have a shot.

[indamiddle]

05:38 PM on 09/23/2011

Jimmy Carter will hand over the worst President statue as well.

[bassface49]

02:57 AM on 09/24/2011

Bushbots are so funny.

[sense is not that common]

04:33 PM on 09/23/2011

100% of people polled said they wouldn't change how they vote based on any opinion poll

[RealistBC]

04:27 PM on 09/23/2011

The Election of 2012 will go down in history as the prime example of the sorry state the nation now endures.

[indamiddle]

05:39 PM on 09/23/2011

NAh that was 2008.....When they were sucked in by Hope and Change and a lot of Echo....

[den1953]

04:22 PM on 09/23/2011

Maybe prior to the elections of 2012 Huff Post should publish just which Washington law makers are taking the most campaign funds from Corporate America then vote accordingly!

[den1953]

08:30 PM on 09/23/2011

Go smoke some more your not quite there yet don't bogart it!

[Hijeetz Mipanz]

04:49 PM on 09/23/2011

How about all the Dirty Union money? Theres not enough to keep Obama around another 4.

[SteveSFM]

05:29 PM on 09/23/2011

Because money supporting Rs isn't dirty.

Ahahahaha.

Face it, Chester. They're all pigs at the trough.

[Pedestrian101]

05:45 PM on 09/23/2011

NO SUCH THING AS DIRTY UNION MONEY. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT BEFORE MAKING SUCH A STATMENT.

[JDM73]

04:08 PM on 09/23/2011

Are Americans sick and tired of the two major political parties in their country? Yes. Will they act on that dissatisfaction when they go to the polls a year from now? No. They just keep voting for people who try to marginalize them out of existence. I don't know if that's the definition of insanity, but it's certainly the definition of dumb.

[indamiddle]

05:40 PM on 09/23/2011

Party politics is dead we hope....More Independents than ever.