Rick Perry By The Polls: Will He Be The Front-Runner Much Longer?

WASHINGTON -- Front-runner status has been fleeting in the Republican presidential contest so far, and Rick Perry's current hold on first place in public opinion polls may be similarly short-lived.

Since entering the race in mid-August, the Texas governor has led Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican field in every national poll -- 17 in all. HuffPost Pollster's trend estimate chart, which combines results from all available public polls, currently gives Perry 27 percent of the Republican primary vote to 18 percent for Romney and all other candidates in single digits.

While the most recent polls have shown Perry running consistently ahead, there are good reasons to think his lead may fade.

First, much of that support is likely quite soft. Perry is still a relatively new face. According to Gallup, his name recognition has increased from 55 percent among Republicans in early July to 76 percent as of last week. And most polls have shown Perry's support at least doubling since the summer.

Typically, voters who shift their vote to a new candidate in a primary campaign will describe their support as soft. In the Politico/George Washington University poll conducted in late August, for example, 36 percent of Republicans said Perry was their first choice for president, but on a separate question just 22 percent said they would definitely vote for Perry.

Also, as political scientist and HuffPost Pollster co-founder Charles Franklin points out, Perry's lead in the national polls has narrowed in recent weeks, from roughly 10 to roughly five percentage points, since he started participating in televised debates.

It will take very little -- a shift of roughly one Republican in twenty from Perry to Romney -- to eliminate Perry's current lead altogether.

Whatever the recent trend, keep in mind that support for Perry, which recent polls have put in a percentage range of the mid to upper 20s, is roughly the same as Rudy Giuliani's support at this point in 2007 and slightly less than Howard Dean received as a Democratic candidate just before the Iowa caucuses in 2004.

For Perry to win the Republican nomination, he will need to do more than maintain his current support. Barring a very unlikely brokered convention, he will need to win a majority of votes from Republican primary and caucus voters nationwide to gain the necessary majority of delegates.

Perry received good news on that front on Tuesday, when the latest USA Today/Gallup poll asked Republicans to choose between Perry and Romney. That survey gave Perry 49 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Romney and 11 percent undecided. Of course, Perry's support on that question is more than just soft, it is also hypothetical. Keep in mind that just 31 percent opted for Perry among the eight announced candidates, so roughly one in three who would in theory support Perry over Romney support another candidate as their first choice.

At best, Perry's support has leveled off in September, and his performance in Thursday night's Republican debate in Florida portends a likely decline, given the all-important "invisible primary" now under way among Republican party insiders, activists and donors. Political scientists who have studied past presidential nomination battles -- particularly Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller in their book "The Party Decides," argue that those insiders help to determine the ultimate nominee, in part because their opinions act as a cue that helps guide the choices of less attentive voters.

That's why Perry's performance in Thursday's debate is important. It was met with nearly universal criticism, including from a Frank Luntz focus group of Republicans telecast by Fox News immediately following the debate itself. The disparagement of Perry also came from strongly conservative commentators such as William Kristol, Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, Dan Riehl, Rich Lowry and Erick Erickson.

So looking at the most recent polls, Rick Perry remains the front-runner. But in a week or so, that snapshot of the primary may look very different.

Comments

[KMBerger]

02:05 PM on 09/29/2011

Another thing GOPers should think about regarding Perry as being a viable Presidential candidate is to look at his record on improving road infrastructure in Texas. Texas ranks 2nd worse in the nation in terms of the number of bridges in dire need of repair -- 9,433 -- to be exact. Our nation's water and waste-water infrastructure in both urban and rural areas is falling apart as few communities have budgeted for maintenance or replacement, and these systems generally may last 20 - 40 years. If we are looking at creating jobs for the unemployed, fixing our roads, bridges, water/waste-water systems, schools, re-planting forests destroyed in forest fires, any number of critical projects exist that need to be fixed or replaced or else we will decline and resemble more of a 3rd World Nation than we already, do since we are falling behind Europe and China in the area of alternative energy deployment at 10% versus over 20% in China. Do Republicans really care about the longevity of our nation? I seriously doubt it.

[Scott Lanford]

08:20 PM on 09/26/2011

Forget Slick Rick Perry. He is just another talking head for the corrupt side of politics. Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate whose record proves that he isn't owned by corporations. He may not be the candidate with whom you agree most, but he is certainly way more genuine and honest than any of the others on the stage, and it is clear that his interests are liberty and freedom, not the agenda of some company that pays for his stuff.

[Ed C Atlanta]

06:58 AM on 09/26/2011

The stumble bumler, we can now see why perry didn't want to participate in debates down thar in Texas,,because he is no good at them,,hey rick the party is over for you on the national scene,thanks for playing, but you are just not ready for primetime,,take it back to your home state, you're all done here..see ya!!!!

[1differentdrummer]

04:30 AM on 09/26/2011

"Polls has?" Editors?

[Dunnemarogra]

09:49 PM on 09/25/2011

I dont know Jon Huntsmann is the Bushs Candidate and when he was asked abou the VP spot he said Herman Cain and a big handshake. If Jon Huntsmann cant win this the Bushs might be passing on the mantle to Herman Cain. It depends how much power the Bushs still have in the Republican Party and whether they care that much about stopping Rick Perry.

[mcmutter]

06:56 PM on 09/25/2011

SC will love Perry ... he's just frooty enough ....

[Goodthink2012]

06:40 PM on 09/25/2011

The picture of Perry at the debate when he was trying to cut Romney down with the being a flip-flopper looks to me like he is under the influence and his incoherent comments seem to prove the point.

[prodemlib]

05:49 PM on 09/25/2011

the TeaGOPers thought Perry was an answer to their prayers..he had the record, the looks, the bona fidis they were looking for.......then he opened his mouth

[calm-down-bro]

05:24 PM on 09/25/2011

The next president will be required to understand the changing face of government in the middle east and the dynamics that drive those changes, the meaning of technology as a force in teh world, trade deals and their implications in short and long economics, housing crises, military deployments and requirements, diplomacy, disaster relief and response, general and specific international relations, terrorism, immigration, environmental policy, and on and on.

Mr. Perry received a C in general Botany of Seed Plants, a D in Principles of Economics, an F in Organic Chemistry, a D in Feeds and Feeding, a C in Large Animal Nutrition, and a D in Writing for Professional Men.

Whatever one may think of the other candidates, Mr. Perry is unlikely to have the intellectual horsepower for the job. We have all seen that movie, and it led to the Cheney presidency.

[DrBlunt]

11:20 AM on 09/25/2011

A mess in shoes!

[westernmass]

09:33 AM on 09/25/2011

Well it seems the more they know about Perry the more they realize we don't need a bush-light. He's long on style and appearence but light on what we need in a leader. It's hard to imagine that he can make george look smart but his college grades and his comments about them are proof that the biggest thing in Texas is perry's ego.
If questioning his ideas and his plans for America makes me a "LIBERAL ELITEST" as cal thomas say's in his column then so be it, I'm an elitest! BUT... if we don't ask questions and we accept the cons at face value we will deserve another disasterous administration like the bush/cheney years.
The press had better start doing their job and ask the questions we need answers to before the primaries not after the election next November. We need them now!

[almchrl13]

04:33 AM on 09/25/2011

Perry's gripping something soft all right.

Gotta love the gallows humor though.

Perry comes in, implodes Bachmann's campaign -
then imploded himself.
I think he's a Romney plant.

[Kalikat]

12:54 AM on 09/25/2011

Every one complains that Palin was not vetted or check out thoroughly before she was McCain's running mate. Perry made such a splash with his swagger and in your face style the republicans jumped on his band wagon before he was really checked as to what he believed in. When Rove and Bush came out against him, we knew pretty sure he wasn't the type of candidate that the republcians wanted. But time will tell he might make it yet.

[ProgressiveCDN]

12:42 AM on 09/25/2011

Fu#k Polls!! Perrys got it in the bag!!

[zelduh]

04:07 AM on 09/25/2011

I hope so! It would be a cakewalk to defeat him in the general...

[grayplace]

02:54 PM on 09/25/2011

Would that be a barf bag?

[hangdogit]

09:12 PM on 09/24/2011

"Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!"

-- Admiral Farragut

"Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you.”

-- Satchel Paige