Santa Claus 'Outliers'

Roger Simon questions the "magic" of polling; Seth Masket, Lawrence Jacobs, Alex Lundry, and George Gallup (via John Sides) respond.

Jonathan Bernstein thinks through the likely impact of the Iowa outcome.

Patrick Murray thinks Iowa polls are overstating support for Ron Paul.

Nate Silver finds that, in Iowa, conservative Republicans tend to out perform their pre-caucus poll numbers.

Jim Geraghty raises an eyebrow at Michele Bachmann's claim to be in a "statistical dead heat" in Iowa.

Ben Smith reports on an attempt by a Gingrich supporter to debunk polls showing him falling in Iowa; PPP's Tom Jensen responds.

Frank Newport and Susan Page discuss how Gingrich fell victim to the "rainbow curse."

Mark Mellman testifies to the impact of negative advertising and the toll it's taking on Newt Gingrich.

Josh Putnam sees little chance of Iowa losing it's first-in-the-nation caucus perch.

Catherine Hollander details four economic scenarios and how they could effect Obama's reelection chances.

Sheri and Allan Rivlin make the moderate case against Republicans in 2012.

Alan Abramowitz argues that anti-incumbent elections are a myth

Andrew Rosenthal wonders, who are the 11 percent who still approve of Congress?

Frank Newport reviews public opinion on the Iraq War.

John Sides shares research demonstrating that self-reports exaggerate media consumption.

Lymari Morales updates Gallup's holiday publishing schedule.

The RNC moves its voter database to an outside firm, The Data Trust.

Sarah Kliff shares the meta-chart of the year, via Lucia Graves.

AP-GfK finds 84 percent of US adults believed in Santa Claus as children.

Kaiser Fung shares a Venn diagram proving "Santa is uber god."