Ron Paul Holding Iowa Lead In New PPP Poll

WASHINGTON -- The first new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa since the Christmas holiday shows little change. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) continues to run slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (24 to 20 percent), followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (13 percent), Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) (11 percent), Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Sen. Rick Santorum (10 percent each), former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (4 percent) and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (2 percent).

The automated poll, conducted by the Democratic Party-affiliated firm Public Policy Polling (PPP), was conducted on Monday and Tuesday and shows little or no change in vote preferences compared to its last survey, conducted 10 days earlier. That poll showed Paul leading Romney by three points (23 to 20 percent), with Gingrich in third (14 percent).

PPP's surveys, like the others, have shown support for Newt Gingrich rising from the single digits to a high of 27 percent in early December and then falling back to 13 percent on the current survey. In early December, PPP found Gingrich's personal rating peaking at 62 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable. Four weeks of pounding by negative ads have helped reverse that to 37 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable on the current survey.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul's support comes from what the PPP analysis describes as "a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state." Romney leads with traditional caucus-goers and Republicans, while Paul's lead depends on a 39-to-12 percent advantage among likely caucus-goers who say they are independents or Democrats and a 35-to-11 percent lead among voters under 45 years of age.

"The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008," the PPP analysts write, "and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012." PPP also finds that Paul's supporters are "more passionate" than Romney's, as Paul's lead over Romney is slightly larger (28 to 21 percent) among voters who say their minds are completely made up.

The biggest uncertainty about polling in Iowa this election cycle will be whether the passion of Paul's younger and independent supporters that has been captured in the poll will translate into turnout on caucus night.

Meanwhile, the PPP poll shows no uptick in support for any of the candidates running at the back of the pack, although Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are all within range of a third place finish. Santorum has the highest personal rating (56 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable) and is the most frequent second choice for president (at 14 percent). As such, the PPP analysis concludes that Santorum is the one candidate with "potential to grow his support in the final week."

The PPP poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday among 565 registered voters who said they plan to vote in the Republican caucuses. Like many of the firms polling in Iowa this year, PPP uses an automated, recorded voice methodology which reaches landline telephones only.

 

 

Comments

[Joe Goforth]

06:24 PM on 12/30/2011

Here is the best rebuttal yet on Ron Paul and Racism;

http://ronpaulflix.com/2011/12/black-americans-dont-believe-ron-paul-is-racist/

[rctiger2004]

11:46 PM on 12/30/2011

F&F great post
www.RonPaul2012.com

[rp2par]

05:56 PM on 12/30/2011

I thought I knew how elections and voting worked. Boy way I wrong. It's not a simple cut and dried process.

My granddaughter just sent these sites to me from her computer in the next room. Hope you learn from them too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&feature=youtu.be

http://www.youtube.com/watch?src_vid=OUS9mM8Xbbw&annotation_id=annotation_286635&feature=iv&index=14&v=7wC42HgLA4k&list=PLC1C0D3F2BA472F62

[K8ti]

01:47 PM on 12/30/2011

Dr. Ron Paul all the way! Only candidate who is honest with the American people, and wants to tackle the REAL issues of fixing our economy!!! RON PAUL 2012!!!!! :)

[rctiger2004]

11:51 PM on 12/30/2011

100% agree
www.RonPaul2012.com

[K8ti]

12:27 AM on 01/01/2012

I know Milford. It gets really old...these so called "accusations" about Paul (even after being in Congressman for 26 years...which btw he has NEVER voted to raise Congressional pay) are the only "bad" things they could come up with on him??? And these "accusations" either end up being NOT true, or NOT even him...lol...I mean c'mon now people. It's funny that BOTH political establishments are squirming so much about Paul....they know he will end all their corruption which will fix our country back on track!!!! oh you might like this video about Ron Paul as a doctor...it's 2 minute video. story of how this couple was not being properly treated due to racism...until Ron Paul stepped in (and was the only doctor to help them)....way before he entered politics!

http://youtu.be/8Rv0Z5SNrF4

[pomegrante]

09:41 AM on 12/30/2011

"The Iowa caucus is only a few days away and the nation’s attention will be directed to the results, which signify the beginning of the U.S. presidential race. But does anyone watch who tallies the results of the Iowa caucus?

The Iowa caucus results were tallied in 2004 by a company that is headed by a man whose company was bought by Elron Electronics, the Israeli defense firm. I suspect that it will be the same this year. Don’t expect to see any grassroots political activists doing the tally in Iowa. The Israeli defense establishment takes care of that part of the American “democratic” election process."

http://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com/2011/12/israeli-defense-firm-that-tallies-iowa.html

[johngary66]

05:31 AM on 12/30/2011

Alternet 12/29/11 "Coming on the heels of recent revelations by a former aide that Ron Paul would not use the bathroom in a gay man's home or shake the hand of a gay supporter, and the homophobic and racist utterances attributed to him in a series of newsletters published under his name in the 1980s and '90s, news of Kayser's death-to-the-gays theology was hardly a boon to the campaign."

[rctiger2004]

11:53 PM on 12/30/2011

http://ron­paulflix.c­om/2011/12­/black-ame­ricans-don­t-believe-­ron-paul-i­s-racist/
www.RonPaul2012.com

[Claudio Fabio Bertamini]

07:18 PM on 01/01/2012

i named the my last little terd of 2010 after you and even though i flushed it i think you are still around.

[johngary66]

02:37 AM on 01/02/2012

You sound exactly like who I would expect to be a Ron Paul supporter. Do you only flush once a year? I'll bet your place stinks.

[Stashley]

11:23 PM on 12/29/2011

It's about time the middle class woke up. Ron Paul is telling the truth about our government and who is paying for it. Middle class get out and vote for a change, you will scare the hell out of the officials. I register democrat, but I will be voting for Ron Paul in the fall. I am sick of both parties, they are in it together, nothing changes, exept the amount of taxes the middle class pays.

[Stashley]

11:54 PM on 12/31/2011

Yes

[adam646l]

05:07 PM on 12/29/2011

Ron Paul? WOW!

[adam646l]

05:05 PM on 12/29/2011

And it all means????

[Brian Holder]

03:46 AM on 12/30/2011

...that the people are waking up

[adam646l]

01:50 PM on 12/30/2011

flavor of the week

[RonPaulorBust]

04:04 PM on 12/29/2011

The choice is quite simple. Vote for Ron Paul, or continue to vote against your own interest.

The status quo is not on anyone's side but their own.

[skippy D]

04:09 PM on 12/29/2011

Please watch this video and pass it around http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mB7SG5gpWAw&feature=player_embedded#!
Ron Paul is AWESOME!

[kart]

02:46 PM on 12/29/2011

looking at the candidates it looks more like who ever wins it will be a bit more of the same for another 4-8 years with the same congressman and senators in place....keep on trucking.

[skippy D]

04:11 PM on 12/29/2011

Not if Ron Paul wins! Please listen to him here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4518OmVbIuU&feature=player_embedded

[IFany]

01:32 PM on 12/29/2011

The turnout of right wing voters is the barometer, regardless of who is chosen, that is what shows the future of any candidates that the Republicans put forth. I would guess that a shrinkage of the party portends the results of the general election

[IFany]

01:28 PM on 12/29/2011

The level of irreverent candidates leaves Iowa's right wing lower and lower in it's level of voters willing to choose amongst the menagerie

[batguano]

09:13 AM on 12/29/2011

Lots of comments here demonizing Paul for alleged racism; that may be misplaced, exaggerated, false; racism is alive & well all over America, it is inbred, sadly, in many people & states, against African-Americans, Latinos, Native Americans, Asians, Muslims, Gay people & others. It might be said that our African-American prez has not really done much (until forced) to make lives of minorities, especially the poor, much better, & Obama’s deal essentially letting the mortgage thief perps off Scott-free (as were the banker thieves), & the NDAA prelude to fascism bill are not acceptable.

Paul has many ideas that might perhaps help to restore our American Republic; he also has some ideas that may not sound so good to some ears, but his candidacy or election would certainly shake-up the status-quo! What we have got from both parties & anointed candidates has been just more of the same; more gifting of the uber-rich, more for-profit wars, more obscene military spending at the expense of civilian priorities, more unaffordable/unequal health care & education, massive dirty energy, agri-business, big pharma subsidies & little to green tech, a criminal costly War on Drugs – the list is long, but we have gotten little real “change we can believe-in”.

Ron Paul brings another look at things, as does Dennis Kucinich, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alan Greyson; we could hardly do worse than what we get from the business-as-usual shills now; give the man a chance to speak!

[serialcoma]

09:37 AM on 12/29/2011

What a shame that you are so obviously clueless.... typical of a Paul supporter.. incapable of understanding reality and incapable of extrapolating the consequences of a Paul presidency... fortunately he's already sinking back into the mu.ck and sli.me where bi.gots such as he belong.....

[batguano]

10:00 AM on 12/29/2011

No need to get shallow or repeat others possible disinformation; "extrapolating the consequences", "sinking back into the muck" ?- unnecessary rubbish verbiage. I am by no means a "Paul supporter", I support some of his stated positions, certainly not any bigotry or racist sentiments of whatever nature. That being said what are we getting in the nature of "change we can believe-in" from those now in power? I supported the stated positions and rhetoric of candidate Obama, but got little of what I thought I was buying-into, as usual when the status-quo shills from either party are the ones to "lead" us; I wouldlike to see sanders, Greyson, Warren, Kucinich in positions of power, but that ain’t happening in the Dem machine politics, and the Repubs are typically far worse.

For profit wars, war on drugs, education & health-care shams, environmental neglect, animal rights abuses, green tech funding, banker/wall st/mortgage rip-offs, big pharma scams - yeah, on & on, we are not getting leadership or commitment to change or a shift in dialogue from either party hierarchy or their rich and powerful profiteers who dictate the direction we must take as a for-profit nation; so what do we do to shake things up, O wise-one?

[bboop100]

12:52 AM on 12/30/2011

Clueless? I think we as Americans do realize the consequences of our actions like waging war based on lies and then expecting our young brave men and womanto go and die. Like spending billions on keeping an empire alive while our vets starve in the streets and so on and so on....my friend you are asleep and are incapable of recognizing consequense. Rop Paul 2012

[serialcoma]

10:13 AM on 12/29/2011

Since your reply hasn't posted - if you want to clean up DC all corporate money and undisclosed donors must be eliminated from campaigns and there must be term limits for everyone, the SCOTUS included...as far as my comments go I stand by them... A Paul presidency would (if he were able) re-institutionalize segregation, destroy the environment and leave consumers without any form of protection against corporate fraud and abuse, worker safety would be eliminated and his isolationist tendencies would only encourage more wars around the globe.... these are the consequences Paulites seem oblivious to.... a sad commentary on their ability to understand what Paul wants to do.... aside from that, if he were somehow elected POTUS he;d be impotent from day one.. there isn't a D that will work with him and even after nearly thirty years of sitting with the R' sthey want nothing to do with him either.. he has never been successful in promoting any legislation. He claims to want to release all non-violent drug offenders but will not be able to pardon anyone except persons convicted of Federal crimes.... he cannot simply wave a wand and change legislation at the Federal level and if he maintains his state's rights policy ideas he will not be able to interfere with state legislation... his presidency would be a useless waste of time for the nation.....

[batguano]

10:53 AM on 12/29/2011

Thanks for the reply SC, Maybe I and others are clutching at straws here, but I for one see little change from either major party or their leaders. The direction we are taking re wars & bases/troops all over the world, MIC control of "defense" spending, banker/!% greed, lack of environmental/animal protections, green-tech funding, education/health care reform, campaign contributions subverting our electoral processes, lobbyist dominance, corporate offshoring of jobs/manufacturing; hey I have a LOT of complaints about things & status-quo "reality" that are destroying/buying-up our free republic, and I do not see a way out unless something happens to really shake-up the way things are. Possibly a candidate who has the ability to change the dialogue, but that is none of the other Repub candidates, or, IMO the Dem DLC establishment, and that is why I want to see a paul or Kucinich or Sanders or Greyson in positions of power and have a soapbox. Someone posted that Kucinich would pick Paul as running mate to create a "left-right", “progressive-populist”dynamic; why not, we’ve survived worse?

[chessienut]

10:49 AM on 12/30/2011

The one and only one thing Paul could do without the cooperation of Congress would be to immediately cease the insane policy of the U.S. being the police force for the world. There might have been a time when protecting business interest throughout the world was in America's best interest but today's business has nothing to do with loyalties to our country. Rather it has found it most profitable and convenient to pillage our economy and send all our financial resources over seas. Let business and the immediate neighbors pay to keep things like Iran at bay and let us clean up the mess created at home by the M.I.C. and chicken hawks of Congress. Oh wait, I was mistaken, after the Defense of America Act was passed two weeks ago Congress surrendered its powers under the Posse Comitatus Act to the executive branch there fore Paul could have any citizen to be interned indefinitely without charge and without approval of Congress. I wouldn't hold my breathe on Paul ever invoking that Congressional and Unconstitutionally blasphemous act. Could you guarantee that from any of the other candidates, Dem or Repub?

[muscle guy]

08:35 AM on 12/29/2011

I think Americans, are just angry, with the way obama, has run our country, and this poll is nothing more then, the beginning of the end of obama

[jbmcjbm]

01:29 PM on 12/29/2011

With all the Right Wing Media TV and Radio, lieing about the President or Half truths about his policies it's no wonder republican voters would vote against their best interest. These attacks started during the 2008 elections and have continued to the present day. It's OK thought he's going to be reelected anyways, because the Right Wing doesn't have a leg to stand on.

[bboop100]

01:42 AM on 12/30/2011

I am sorry I dont listen to rightwing windbags nor am I a right winger. I am American patriot that sees the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, I see families suffering, loosing their homes because their job went overseas. I see massive abuses of power in high places. Any sain person with half a brain can see the truth but then again they voted for him so I guess insanity may prevail again. I guess we get the govt we deserve, by the way tell your mom I said hello, and for heaven sakes dont't hog up the bathroom...

[USA2BGR8AGAIN]

08:03 AM on 12/29/2011

The United States could never become the utopia that Ron Paul and his supporters envision, the whole notion of dismantling our Federal Government is impossible. Ron Paul could not and will never lead our Nation, I'm amazed at the fantasy that his naive followers cling to, they have not given any rational thought as to the consequences of the changes that Mr. Paul espouses.