The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Feb. 24, 2012

For the bulk of the campaign season, we've been keenly aware that the GOP establishment-types had some grave misgivings over the fact that Mitt Romney might end up winning the nomination. But at the end of last week, what basically amounted to a sense of free-floating despair flared into a hot flash of panic -- only this time, it was paced by fears that Mitt Romney might lose.

The focus, of course, of the past two weeks, has been the upcoming primary in Michigan, where Rick Santorum surged into the lead. All of that hype was perhaps premature -- after all, Santorum's poll peak came well ahead of Romney operationalizing his money-powered character assassination machine. But ABC News Jonathan Karl landed the scoop of the week, in the form of an anonymous -- yet "prominent"! -- GOP senator, who said, "If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate."

Can: open. Worms: everywhere. Newt Gingrich: telling anyone who would listen that winning one's home state was of paramount importance. And the general feeling set in that Super Tuesday's fortunes might well be determined by the result in Michigan.

Right now, the Republican field has those GOP establishment-types in a knot of exquisite tension. The guy that's likely to carry the banner in the general election, Mitt Romney, is someone who's never been easy to pin down ideologically, and that makes Republican elites -- who are ever cognizant of the fact that John McCain failed amid numerous flip-flops, and the ever present "Republican In Name Only" label on the minds of the Republican base -- quite nervous. In Rick Santorum, the same key establishment figures know they have a "team player." Santorum himself, in this week's debate, famously copped to this. But with his tendency to never keep the "unadulterated Republican dogma" in dog-whistle form -- a matter that was examined hilariously by John Oliver of the "Daily Show" -- those same elites know that Santorum always puts the affections of independent voters at risk.

Meanwhile, their other choices are anything but team players. Newt Gingrich has burned bridges with his massive ego and boundless self-regard, and Ron Paul has staked out an entirely different patch of ideological territory. And he's got himself a delicate, deliberate plan to earn enough delegates through the primary process that, at the very least, could leave him in the position to play dealmaker.

Paul actually probably deserves some credit for being on the leading edge of the phenomenon that now has the GOP establishment cycling through various stages of grief. The elites have largely lost control of the process. They couldn't get the horses they wanted into the race to run. An eclectic group of flamboyant millionaires and billionaires now fund the machine through super PACs. The media has kept candidates who would otherwise have faded into also-ran status in January alive through debates. And the grassroots is up for grabs. The elites maintain a fantasy that they could still decide everything in some smoke-filled room, but look what that fantasy has been reduced to -- openly rooting for a deadlocked convention. That's what the comments of this anonymous GOP senator seem geared toward. Their ace in the hole is little better than a suicide pact.

But the GOP establishment still has one desire that could well unite everyone in the end: the desire to beat President Barack Obama in November. And that's why when a candidate finally emerges from this process -- and like Karl Rove, we believe that the "odds are greater that there's life on Pluto than that the GOP has a brokered convention" -- there's a good chance that everyone is going to look back on this time in their lives and their panic and their doubts and wonder why they made such a big deal about everything.

Providing they win, that is. As for who wins, so much depends on Michigan. For the rest of what went down on the campaign trail -- including third party titillations, Obama polling palpitations, and the Arizona debate conflagration -- please feel free to enter the Speculatron for the week of February 24, 2012.

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Mitt Romney

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For what by now seems like the thousandth time, Mitt Romney came into the week facing the same old headwinds that have dogged him all season long. Could he "close the deal"? Could he "retake the momentum"? Would he give GOP elites reason to come off their 2012 suicide watch? Facing the forthcoming contests in Arizona and Michigan, Romney was maintaining a slight lead in the former -- where he's not facing a lot of competition, because it's a winner-take-all state and the rest of the field have essentially conceded it -- and in Michigan -- well ... signs pointed to something of a rebound. Last week's gaudy poll numbers, which pointed to a possible Santorum success, were beginning to tighten. But the Romney camp was still downplaying the importance of winning the state all the same. (Though Stuart Stevens apparently did not get the memo and guaranteed a Romney win.) It's definitely possible to overstate the importance of Michigan in the long-term scheme of things. Nevertheless, that sort of overstatement dogged Romney all week, after a "prominent Republican Senator" told ABC News' John Karl, "If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate." (Where such a new candidate would be found, short of making a command appearance at a deadlocked GOP convention, is unclear, but it's been a season-long fantasy of various GOP elites.) Of course, the Romney doubters have abundant cause for concern. Begin with Romney's greatest (perceived) strength: his capacity to raise money. Last week, tongues started yapping about Romney having a long-term problem in this area. The small donors that might ordinarily provide a constant income streak had, by and large, not yet materialized for Romney. And Romney's team was beginning to discover that even top-dollar donors could get tapped out eventually. And the prolonged nature of the race was forcing Romney to spend money. As Sam Stein reported:

If January's trend lines held through February, Mitt Romney's presidential campaign ran out of money two days ago. The former Massachusetts governor announced Monday night that he had raised roughly $6.4 million in January. More significantly, however, he reported having only $7.7 million cash on hand. Which means that over the course of 31 days, his campaign spent approximately $18.7 million. This is a remarkable burn rate for a campaign that appeared to be a well-oiled machine not too long ago. Each day in January, Romney spent an average of $603,225 and raised just $206,451, meaning he was spending $397,000 more than he was taking in. If the campaign continued to spend at that rate unabated, it would have burned through the remaining $7.7 million on Feb. 19.

It's perhaps no wonder that Romney's affiliated super PAC opted to recycle an old campaign ad in lieu of forking over the ducats to make a new one. (They may have violated the law by doing so, however.) Of course, the other major perceived advantage that the Romney campaign boasts are the litany of high-profile endorsements they constantly receive. By this metric, Romney has absolutely decimated the rest of the field. But Romney's endorsements -- whether they come from political figures or editorial boards -- seem to come with tripwires. We rounded up some of these problems last week, and this week, we can add more: --Romney's constant carping about Rick Santorum's history of voting to raise the debt ceiling (which was considered to be a responsible thing to do up until the GOP went crazy in the face over the issue and decided it was better to threaten to destroy the global economy) is hampered by the fact that "almost all of the current congressional members backing Romney" made similar votes in the past. --The co-chair of Romney's campaign in Arizona, Sheriff Paul Babeu -- well, let's just say he had some ironic problems this week. --In Michigan, Romney endorser Governor Rick Snyder keeps telling people that Romney is wrong to oppose the auto industry "bailouts." --Also in Michigan, Representative Fred Upton -- also a Romney endorser -- echoes Snyder and adds that Romney is wrong on foreclosures as well. --Actually, Michigan newspapers that endorse Romney continue to couple their praise of Romney with pointed criticism of his auto "bailout" stance, and Romney compounds the problem by excising those criticisms from his campaign press releases, and then making a phony "journalistic ethics" argument for why they did so. --And Jon Huntsman seems to have entirely forgotten the fact that a month ago, he endorsed Romney and called for "GOP unity." He now thinks the GOP is bereft of "bold ideas" and recommends a third-party challenge. "Thanks for that, that's awesome," we imagine the Romney campaign did not say to their friend and ally Jon Huntsman. --In fact, the guy who Team Romney has deployed to make his case of late is birther loon, reality teevee star and pretend candidate Donald Trump. How many people, do you imagine, actually wanted to receive a campaign robo-call from Trump this year? We're guessing not many. Maybe robo-call "completists." And Mitt Romney continues to make the kinds of statements that cause the dedicated corporatists that fill the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal to throw up their hands in despair. As Jamelle Bouie notes, Romney managed to make one of those gaffes that cause Republicans to question whether Romney has any "commitment to conservative values":

Yesterday was one of those times: "Speaking in Shelby Township, MI, the former Massachusetts governor took a question about the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission empaneled by President Obama to address the nation's deficit and debt issues. In his response, he said that addressing taxes and spending issues are essential. 'If you just cut, if all you're thinking about doing is cutting spending, as you cut spending you'll slow down the economy,' he said in part of his response. 'So you have to, at the same time, create pro-growth tax policies.'" In other words, Romney just admitted -- in a momentary lapse of judgment -- that some form of government spending can grow the economy during a recession. Nevermind that this is the accepted position of most economists, conservative and otherwise. It runs counter to the core dogma of the conservative movement, that spending cuts (and tax cuts) always grow the economy.

Romney made a bid for elite affection by releasing a new edition of his tax plan this week, which he momentarily suggested would be a plan that "make[s] sure the top 1% keeps paying ... the current share they're paying or more." Not to worry, though, rich folks! That was a bit of a fib!

According to preliminary analysis of that tax plan, though, Romney's assertions are as absurd as they were the first time. According to Center for American Progress Tax and Budget Policy Director Michael Linden, Romney's tax plan contains budget-busting tax breaks for the richest Americans in the form of a permanent 20 percent across-the-board cut to marginal rates and a repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax, which prohibits the wealthy from artificially lowering their tax rates. "The enormity of these tax cuts is mind-boggling," Linden said. "Even more unbelievable is how skewed they are to those [at] the very top of the income ladder."

And by the time Romney got to the end of the Arizona debate, he'd flipped: "Number one, I said that we're going to cut taxes on everyone across the country by 20 percent, including the top 1 percent." Kevin Drum called Romney's plan "smoke and mirrors." And the folks at Baseline Scenario tweeted: "Extreme fiscal irresponsibility: Mitt Romney wants to keep national debt on unsustainable path." Romney largely was able to claim a victory at that debate, though it had less to do with the way he mounted an affirmative argument for his candidacy and more to do with the success he and Ron Paul had at tearing down Rick Santorum. Romney and Paul led the crowd to boo Santorum vigorously and continued to mock the former Pennsylvania senator after the debate had ended. But even in this effort, Romney did not entirely excel. Romney's decision to berate Santorum for supporting President George W. Bush's "No Child Left Behind" Act only worked because everyone seemed to have forgotten that Romney was a vocal supporter for NCLB as well. Ultimately, however, Romney managed to use the debate to right his unsteady ship. He now has a pretty good chance to overcome Santorum's lead in Michigan and stave off a GOP-wide panic attack. But Romney's primary debate victory may come with a general election cost. Despite having previously supported "self-deportation" as a strategy to reduce illegal immigration, in Arizona, Romney went full Arpaio and told the crowd that Arizona's draconian immigration law was a "model" for the nation. Smash-cut to Latino voters turning out for Obama en masse.

Tea Party Statements

U.S. State Capitol Buildings

The Faces Of Military Sexual Assault

10 Major U.S. Federal Immigration Laws

States With Medicaid Policies That Hurt The Poor

GOP's War On Sex

For what by now seems like the thousandth time, Mitt Romney came into the week facing the same old headwinds that have dogged him all season long. Could he "close the deal"? Could he "retake the momentum"? Would he give GOP elites reason to come off their 2012 suicide watch? Facing the forthcoming contests in Arizona and Michigan, Romney was maintaining a slight lead in the former -- where he's not facing a lot of competition, because it's a winner-take-all state and the rest of the field have essentially conceded it -- and in Michigan -- well ... signs pointed to something of a rebound. Last week's gaudy poll numbers, which pointed to a possible Santorum success, were beginning to tighten. But the Romney camp was still downplaying the importance of winning the state all the same. (Though Stuart Stevens apparently did not get the memo and guaranteed a Romney win.)

It's definitely possible to overstate the importance of Michigan in the long-term scheme of things. Nevertheless, that sort of overstatement dogged Romney all week, after a "prominent Republican Senator" told ABC News' John Karl, "If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate." (Where such a new candidate would be found, short of making a command appearance at a deadlocked GOP convention, is unclear, but it's been a season-long fantasy of various GOP elites.)

Of course, the Romney doubters have abundant cause for concern. Begin with Romney's greatest (perceived) strength: his capacity to raise money. Last week, tongues started yapping about Romney having a long-term problem in this area. The small donors that might ordinarily provide a constant income streak had, by and large, ... more

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tamazul said on 25 Saturday 2012 am29 12:08 am: Is the GOP better off today than they were twenty debates ago? - Uh, NO!

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Comments

[chatnuptime1]

01:30 AM on 03/05/2012

Republican candidates in this race is evident the Party doesn't want to win in 2012. They just want to keep us occupied with social interest that devide the country, create fear, distract and confuse the electorate base that is already confused on any given topic while they work their magic in congress of doing absolutely nothing which is a very bad tactic to do. This dog and pony show is so shill and shallow it makes me wonder what they have up their sleeves other then a complete and utter washout for the POTUS run. So it will be by my speculation that Mit will run with a side dish of Ron Paul for as Vice Potus. They look cute together.

[castlemike]

12:17 AM on 02/26/2012

Youth Vote:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=202543

When backers of the Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Act turned in 12,000-plus signatures Friday to cure a 2,407 signature shortfall toward qualifying for the November ballot, a special guest was on hand: Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico.

Johnson thinks the Regulate measure could be the beginning of the end of pot prohibition in the U.S. and across the planet.

Johnson was elected governor as a Republican, but "I've quit the party," he says. He's now a presidential candidate for the Libertarian ticket. But he made time in his schedule to support the Regulate act, which he sees as being of potentially historic significance.

"Colorado has the opportunity to change drug policy worldwide," he says. "I really think this is the domino that brings an end to marijuana prohibition."

Johnson speaking How so? "U.S. drug policy rules the world -- and I think there's a corollary between alcohol prohibition and marijuana prohibition. It's my understanding that one of the things that helped bring alcohol prohibition to an end was New York saying, 'We're not going to enforce federal prohibition laws anymore. Federal government, if you want to do that, go ahead. But we're not going to.' And the federal government didn't have the resources to begin to do that, and that really helped end alcohol prohibition."

Granted, the effect was far from immediate.

[tobcantine]

02:10 PM on 02/25/2012

Romney is likely to be the candidate. Every Republican LOVES him. He is so relaxed, so smooth, so intelligent. He has deeply felt convictions. He never flip flops. He connects so well with his audiences. He is the darling of the Tea Party. He is a life long Conservative and he makes it very clear that he is as far right as it is possible to go. He always tells the truth. He is warm and sensitive and caring. His history as a business man endears everyone to him because it is the sort of business we all admire: He helped businesses to succeed and made brilliant choices that helped the workers in the companies as well as the owners. He advocated for and predicted the outcome of the loan to Detroit car makers correctly, and he will do the same in other areas as President.

He will get the Tea Party and Independants fired up to support him as they are doing now. He is exactly the man we need against Obama in November!

Will I vote for him?

[Michigan Joe]

04:44 PM on 02/25/2012

Very good. ROTFLMAO

[chatnuptime1]

01:31 AM on 03/05/2012

I am laughing. A very fine hint at humor. I won't even ask if this is serious. It can't be.

[tobcantine]

02:14 AM on 03/05/2012

I am VERY serious! He is going to run on the idea that what I say about him is who he really is! Some people will be duped into believing him!

[Grace Hulbert]

01:42 PM on 02/25/2012

In Romney's first 100 days as President he will ensure that all of America's tress are shorn to the correct height

[Grace Hulbert]

01:41 PM on 02/25/2012

On Romneycare:

"Was that wrong? Should I not have done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorance on this thing, because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing is frowned upon... "
George Constanza after sleeping with the cleaning woman

[Jon Wain]

01:38 PM on 02/25/2012

oil is big money . republican party is big money. are they in bed together YYYES. Raise oil prices choke the dems.YYYES BARE with it . republicans are good at imploding AAAnd they will

[Grace Hulbert]

01:29 PM on 02/25/2012

Romney: I've ridden in hundreds of Cadillacs . . . thousands of Cadillacs!

[Got2Go]

01:26 PM on 02/25/2012

I felt a couple years ago that the republicans want no part of being president during this time of horrendous monetary debacle brought on by 8 years of Wbbya.

[99er2049er]

01:44 PM on 02/25/2012

I think republicans want to wait 4 more years so the democrats can not only save the economy but build it up big and strong, that way republicans can come back in and loot our treasury all over again.

[Got2Go]

01:47 PM on 02/25/2012

That is exactly what G. W. Bush Jr., did when he took over from Clinton.

[Got2Go]

01:24 PM on 02/25/2012

Maybe Romney meant that corporations were people to in the context of himself and his corporate raiding buddies.

[Intolerantcentrist]

01:22 PM on 02/25/2012

The “anyone but Romney” model seems to be self-fulfilling failure.

[fredgladys]

01:10 PM on 02/25/2012

Watching and listening to the GOP candidates and their 'Theater of the Absurd' I've gone through a number of emotions; irritation, anger, amusement, and have now moved to tedium. The whole process has turned to farce, I'm wondering if this is part of a master plan that is so clever and devious that no-one can understand it.

[KC45]

01:30 PM on 02/25/2012

Clever and devious Gopers? Not on this planet. ;-)

[fredgladys]

01:47 PM on 02/25/2012

You're probably right, it's just hard to comprehend so much stupidity, pettiness and venom in people who want to be President. Most people wouldn't let their kids behave like these pillars of society.

[jordan2]

12:52 PM on 02/25/2012

Lots of rumors about a deal with Paul and Romney but I can tell you now that they have NEVER openly discussed a deal.

If Mitt gets the nomination, I think the GOP will incorporate some of his ideas into the platform but that won't happen solely because of Ron Paul. The various TP factions have been ignored but they will be the key to winning the election. With the exception of TP Nation, the others are holding their gunpowder until they get a candidate. 

MSM has ignored the makeup of the delegates. How many of those delegates are TP members? No one mentions that but I guarantee you that the TP will be represented by a significant number of delegates at the convention. So it's easy for me to imagine the TP delegates joining forces with the Paul delegates to influence the agenda. 

The dialogue among the various TP groups is not being made public. It's a very smart tactic because what MSM is reporting is that  the TP is "dead." It's also smart because, since MSM believes the movement is dead, they are not attacking it. There is nothing to attack.. YET. 

They are in for a big surprise. 

The question is how much the old school GOP people will work with  them to come up with a platform that will secure the votes of both the TP AND Ron Paul people. They have to be unified to have a chance to beating Obama.  

[freddychef]

01:22 PM on 02/25/2012

your opening statement is a lie.
mitt and ron are known to be social friends, and their wives are even closer.
your spin on this fact nullifys your entire post.
but i do not care, as i support the democratic party.

[jordan2]

09:45 PM on 02/25/2012

Thank you for such an insightful, respectful post. Have a nice day.

[Harbinger08]

01:37 PM on 02/25/2012

You don't seem to know very much about which individuals are chosen to be a candidate's delegates. There are no "Tea Party" delegates. I think you're the one in for a big surprise, and it's called "Reality". It will make it's existence known to you on the morning after the election. You might want to brace yourself for a shock. Remember, Obama brought nearly 70 million voters to the game last time. What are you bringing?

[jordan2]

02:16 PM on 02/25/2012

Actually there will be TP delegates. They just don't go by that name. The Tea Party is NOT a party. There are many different factions and they do NOT all have the same agenda. Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation says some crazy things but he does NOT represent the majority of factions.

I find it amazing how many people refer to the Tea Party here as if they are all of like mind. They are not even all Republicans. Yet they are used in the same breath.

I follow them just like I do the OWS movements because I believe that these various " movements" represent our best hope for change. They all have one thing in common: They are angry as hell.

I have no idea how the election will turn out. I was only saying what I believe the GOP must do to compete. Unless they unite, they have no chance.

There has been bitter conflict between the TP caucus in Congress and the mainstream GOP since the last elections so I don't know if they will come to a reasonable agreement or not.

First, they need a candidate. LOL.

What I bring to the "game" is my one little vote, same as you. LOL

Isn't it great how much we cherish it and enthusiastically fight for our views?

[sleepyguy510]

12:47 PM on 02/25/2012

Perhaps they need to take another look at Newt. He seems to have no trouble sealing the deal....

[TruEngineHearing]

12:46 PM on 02/25/2012

"ROMNEY HAS REPUBLICANS IN KNOT OF EXQUISITE TENSION" - Wow! and that's just the first scene!

[sleepyguy510]

12:46 PM on 02/25/2012

Isn't ot more like a ball of apathy?

[phal4875]

01:20 PM on 02/25/2012

Fanned. Or maybe a raging fire of apathy.