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Spring Weather: Winter Ending Early For Many Plants And Animals


Posted: 03/ 8/2012 3:57 pm

By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer:

NEW YORK -- A tiny, cloverlike plant with heart-shaped leaflets caught Steve Brill's attention as he scanned the ground of a Brooklyn park.

"We have really messed up our climate if this plant, which dies in November, is alive now," Brill announced as he introduced the plant, yellow wood sorrel, to the group following him.

Brill leads foraging tours for edible plants in the New York area, and his first tour of the 2012 season, in Prospect Park, yielded some surprises brought by the unusually mild winter. The lemony-flavored sorrel, for instance, had shown up at least a month earlier than normal.

Sunday (March 4) marked the first tour of his 30th season. Brill said he has noticed a gradual shift in the annual cycle over the years, with many plants showing up about three weeks earlier than they once did, and then lasting much longer. This year is unprecedented -- some plants never even died off for the winter, he said. [Gallery: Signs of Early Spring in Brooklyn]

Changes in timing

Scientific evidence for similar shifts in timing among all kinds of plants and animals is abundant. For example, studies indicate lilacs in North America are leafing out and flowering earlier; in Japan, gingko trees are getting their first leaves earlier and losing them later; bee species in the northeastern North America are emerging earlier, keeping pace with the flowers upon which they feed; British butterflies are also showing up sooner; and birds appear to be shifting the timing of their migrations.

One study even looked at National Park attendance to find evidence of a similar shift in seasonal timing -- called phenology -- for humans.

"There is a study coming out every week showing changes are occurring," said Jake Weltzin, the executive director of the USA National Phenology Network and an ecologist with U.S. Geological Survey, which recruits volunteers to monitor seasonal changes in plants and animals.

Attributing these changes directly to global climate change is more difficult, but researchers are beginning to do just that; they're finding evidence that shifts in climate are directly linked to changes in the timing of biological events, Weltzin said.

Consequences

Changes in the timing of events such as spring blooms, insect emergence and bird migrations have consequences.

First of all, not all species respond in the same way; some are better able to adapt than others. This means mismatches can occur, if, say, bees and the flowering plants they pollinate don't respond at the same rate. Mismatches like this can affect the prospects of the species involved.

"It is going to rig the game for certain species and the ones that are successful, it is going to change the individuals within them," said Mark Schwartz, a distinguished professor of geography and climate at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. "It is an evolutionary process."

The fingerprint of climate change

Schwartz studies how plants respond to changes in seasons and climate, drawing upon observations of plants made by volunteers. With records of the first appearance of their leaves and flowers going back to 1956, lilacs -- all of which are genetically identical to minimize variation among them -- have the longest record.

Using observations from the lilacs, as well as cloned honeysuckle, Schwartz has built models to fill in the gaps in the data to predict how temperature might affect the arrival of spring leaves and blooms.

Using this technique, Schwartz and colleagues have shown that first leaf and flower dates crept ahead by around one day per decade between 1955 and 2002 across most Northern Hemisphere temperate regions. Other studies that have assessed data on many species have also found temperature-related shifts in spring.

His spring plant models have also been used to look at how natural patterns, such as cycles in atmospheric pressure and ocean temperature, play into earlier springs. [What's Causing Early Spring?]

"The argument seems compelling from what I have seen, that we are in a longer-term trend toward things being quite different," Schwartz said.

You can follow LiveScience senior writer Wynne Parry on Twitter @Wynne_Parry. Follow LiveScience for the latest in science news and discoveries on Twitter @livescience and on Facebook.


Copyright 2012 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer: NEW YORK -- A tiny, cloverlike plant with heart-shaped leaflets caught Steve Brill's attention as he scanned the ground of a Brooklyn park. "We have re...
By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer: NEW YORK -- A tiny, cloverlike plant with heart-shaped leaflets caught Steve Brill's attention as he scanned the ground of a Brooklyn park. "We have re...
By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer: NEW YORK -- A tiny, cloverlike plant with heart-shaped leaflets caught Steve Brill's attention as he scanned the ground of a Brooklyn park. "We have re...
By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer: NEW YORK -- A tiny, cloverlike plant with heart-shaped leaflets caught Steve Brill's attention as he scanned the ground of a Brooklyn park. "We have re...
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06:43 PM on 03/16/2012
first of all I remember the last three springs we had were all below normal, in fact for the first time it got so cold for so long in april of two years ago we lost our new bees. many of my plants suffered die back and we had frost almost into may. last spring was cold also, the last time we had a warm spring was about 6 years ago a year before I rehomed my horse that feburary was so nice, (in the upper 50s lower 60's) that I remember siting in my chair outside thinking wow this is a nice feburary we are having. but then late march came along and we got cold again, which killed the beautiful flowers on the saucer magnolias. and many other flowers turned brown.

these past 3 winters, not counting this one just past we had snow on the ground for 3 months straight and didn't have a spring thaw for two years like we usually would get. last year we had a spring thaw just enough to melt that snow that was 2 feet deep for 3 months and had a crust on it, it took me 10 minutes of walking just to cover half of my yard due to the crust on top.

so are we getting warmer or are we just expeirenceing normal flutations in weather like we always get?

rose
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
06:42 AM on 03/12/2012
We live in precarious times, ecologically speaking. And while we have tried to isolate our food supply from natural processes in many ways, we are still inextricably tied to them. So the stage is being set for a collision between expanding human populations and a precarious food supply for humans.

It is difficult to envision any realistic scenario where rapidly changing climate ( and oh yes, it is rapidly changing now ) will not kick out some support of our food supply and cause food costs to sky rocket, along with awareness of things like ecology, hydrology, and climatology.

Perhaps, at that time, calling people insulting names for making sound conclusions based on the available information will be less fashionable.
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
05:39 PM on 03/10/2012
I am in my 60s and I can certainly confirm, earlier show of plants, bugs, and trees. I grew up on a farm and there is now at least 30 more days of planting season in the spring than when I was little.

Why do folks who disagree with the science spend so much time trying to convince others?

Is there some sort of payback?
Is there a prize?
Do they have to constantly make up information?
Do the post the same information over and over?
Do they cherry pick to make a point?

I am really curious as to the motivation, expectations, and value of spending so much time defending a minority view that seems to lack credibility and substance.

Often posting references that are oil or energy company fronted, associated, or funded sites.
Even posting sites that were deemed irrelevant years ago for lack of evidence of a scientific method in their conclusions.

ANy one interested in responding without hyper rhetoric will be responded to.
03:20 AM on 03/11/2012
Great, climate quacks and their disciples have given up on science because it inconveniently fails to support the myth. Now all we have to do is to listen to tales from old timers.
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
09:06 AM on 03/11/2012
As you noted in a different post the climate denier quacks have been exposed and so now you deny facts from observers.
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
09:35 AM on 03/11/2012
"Now all we have to do is to listen to tales from old timers."

You could always go to another site that fits your ideology and personality.

No need to listen to anyone here unless you need someone to bash to make yourself fell better about the posting you make?
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jimspy
Quod quae operibus sufficit.
03:49 AM on 03/11/2012
I'm actually studying the same questions. I've boiled it down to three levels of denialist: The Primary denialists are the ones who know the truth, and know that it threatens their bottom line: The energy lobby. They are in a concerted effort to disinform the public, the way the tobacco companies did in the 50s and 60s. They have somewhat outsourced the job to the Secondary denialists, the professional disinformers such as the Heartland Institute, Sen. Inhofe, and some of the remaining tobacco lobby "scientists". The Secondary denialists have created the talking points for the Tertiary denialists, many of whom we see here. They are largely "taking marching orders" from blogs like Watts Up With That, from Fox News, etc. There seems to be a smartphone app or something that directs them to any major website or blog that mentions anything to do with climate change, and they pour out their well-learned talking points - largely without really THINKING. They believe they are doing the work of good conservative Americans, defending the free-market system, and are not actually concerned with the science or the facts. Many of them are sock puppets, meaning, they're all the same person posting with different names to imply that there is a huge "movement." In short, they really can be ignored...but that's not as much fun as throwing facts in their faces!
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silverwolf13
I know that I do not know.
08:02 PM on 03/11/2012
Excellent analysis. For documentation, see Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, "Merchants of Doubt", and James Hoggan, "Climate Hoax."
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
09:38 AM on 03/10/2012
and within the next year a group I am working with will be adding data that shows an entire regional flora advancing flowering time for spring blooming plants and extending flowering time for fall blooming plants using herbarium specimens going back to the 1800's. It might not seem consequential to some, but it affects how plants interact with each other and the things that feed on and pollinate them. It also enhances the risk that early flowering plants will be impacted by frosts after the initiate growth (the far north will always be cool in early spring, and it is always possible for cold airmass to sink south).
11:56 AM on 03/10/2012
What a waste of time.
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
12:22 PM on 03/10/2012
LOL
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
02:52 PM on 03/10/2012
Yes, you are.
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silverwolf13
I know that I do not know.
08:06 PM on 03/11/2012
EXcellent project. I look forward to reading your results.
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
08:18 PM on 03/11/2012
Thanks! Hopefully the new methods are well-received, and it can get to a journal that would generate a headline. The raw data shows the trends, but some preliminary work shows that the shifts are even bigger, when we bother to go through and find specimens that aren't flowering and exclude those. However, it is important that the raw data shows the trends, because it suggests that people will be able to use the wealth of databased herbarium specimens out there, potentially drawing from many collections, without having to spend hundreds of hours in each herbarium.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
06:34 AM on 03/10/2012
Proclaiming how wonderful a premature spring is, is like joyfully running out to find sunken treasure when the ocean recedes, just before a tsunami.

The science of ecology shows that climate change will have many unforeseen cascading effects.
We are likely to have far more mosquitoes and plant pests, and if we have de-synchronized the predator prey relationship enough, we won't have the predator species needed to control them.

Farmers worry that perennial leaf and flower buds will break dormancy and then get killed by one last hard spring frost, destroying their crops. Weeds can flourish before farmers get their plant seeds in the ground because they are likely to hold back on planting until a more normal calendar date.

The likelihood that all or most of the effects of an early spring will be beneficial to humans is vanishingly small. We have evolved our whole agricultural system based on a climate which, until now, has been relatively stable for hundreds and thousands of years. Farmers that have planted one crop for generations cannot easily pick up and move to a new crop until they know the risks involved and with an unstable climate, knowing the risks may not be possible.
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12:41 PM on 03/09/2012
It would be interesting to know if spring is coming earlier in the countryside!

Since there has been no GLOBAL warming since 1998 it seems unlikely that the countryside would be experiencing earlier spring !
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04:44 PM on 03/09/2012
nobody agrees with you, least of all your self.
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
09:40 AM on 03/10/2012
climate is the long term pattern and weather is the short-term noise, that is why you have no clue what you're talking about.
11:31 AM on 03/10/2012
Climate is warm weather, weather is cold weather.
11:50 AM on 03/09/2012
University of Maryland identifies the UHI as the cause for early spring around DC.
http://www.umces.edu/al/project/mid-atlantic-suburbs-can-expect-early-spring-thanks-heat-big-city
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11:57 AM on 03/09/2012
And how about the early spring elsewhere?
12:21 PM on 03/09/2012
Spring comes earlier in big cities because of UHI !

Winter was so severe in Europe that it will be late this year.
09:49 AM on 03/10/2012
A one sentence response? Without the usual "self examination" stuff? Perhaps your mind is open to actually dialogue.

Very good question by the way. A REAL scientist would see these results and use the satellite data to look at other large urban areas looking for similar patterns. The UHI is very real and very noticeable to the residents.

UHI has a local weather impact much as cutting down large swaths of forest has a local weather impact - less moisture and resulting reduced precipitation.

Satellites will do a much better job of data collection since earth observation are point sources. We are still in the infancy of data collection of climate. Interesting stuff though.
12:58 PM on 03/10/2012
What's great about the climate quacks is that there are literally thousands of their papers now that all contradict each other on causes and effects. You can just google and find a paper which supports whatever you believe in, and then claim 97-98% of climate quacks agree with you.
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
05:30 PM on 03/10/2012
Yes and that is why deniers are in a quandary, their papers conflict and of course are all being found to be incorrect.

Nice of you to notice that fact.

Of course the real science is being proved correct and becoming more detailed in their findings which as you noted makes the quacks look even worse.
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alteredstory
Hold on to the center
11:29 AM on 03/09/2012
Something the size of the entire planet is moving around us. We can't see it, but we can see its effects.
12:43 PM on 03/09/2012
Seems like business as usual for planet earth to me !
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alteredstory
Hold on to the center
03:47 PM on 03/09/2012
Not for any point during the history of our species.
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
09:43 AM on 03/10/2012
business as usual for arrogance and ignorance
12:59 PM on 03/10/2012
Very mysterious. Is it gravity?
10:56 AM on 03/09/2012
Spring has been coming consistently much earlier than it used to here in the US (this year is exceptional because of the fact that we basically didn't have a winter over much of the US). The cold air mass over the north pole that normally covers the entire northern hemisphere with winter temperatures wasn't strong enough to cover the northern hemisphere this year and is getting pushed into different blob like shapes that covered Europe with a cold winter but didn't cover the US which is why we didn't get those temps (we could get that blob next year of course).

Up on the border with WI and IL we had the first set of Robin's (spring bird) arrive on Feb. 17th. A decade ago they were an end of march bird. Last year they were the very beginning of March (which was very early).

The deniers constantly try to say this isn't happening, but nature isn't listening to that - you only have to go outside to see with your own eyes, something serious is going on. This year is exceptional in the US, but the trend to earlier springs in the US has been this way for a long time.

Nature knows and nature's changing...
12:22 PM on 03/09/2012
But the satellite and data sensors haven't noticed and warming since 1998 ?
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04:46 PM on 03/09/2012
totally wrong
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wanderthewest
macrobiologist
09:45 AM on 03/10/2012
but 10 of 11 of the warmest years on record have been since then. Hey, define climate for us. Explain how climate and weather differ. Don't look it up. Show us how little you know about what you're talking about. For that matter, what are the first and second laws of thermodynamics?
11:33 AM on 03/10/2012
You do realise that the seasons are down to levels of sunlight, not temperature, right?
09:45 AM on 03/09/2012
It's hard to give any credibility to articles that focus on unscientific anecdotes from 1 tiny area of the globe for 1 year, when skeptics are told that focussing on statistics for larger areas of the globe for 100s of years is not credible because it's GLOBAL warming.

The facts are the Central England Temperature has hardly moved since 1772 (when daily records started) or 1659 when monthly figures started.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Even within the United States, the 5 year mean is lower than what it was in the early 30s.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.D.gif
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alteredstory
Hold on to the center
11:42 AM on 03/09/2012
Um - this phenomenon is occurring all over the globe.

Flowering times, migration times, and insect emergence are all happening earlier in every part of the world that has a winter. Seriously - the whole planet.
12:25 PM on 03/09/2012
So what's causing it because it's clearly not global warming.
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03:52 AM on 03/09/2012
I wonder how the winter wheat is doing?
D-Driller
my micro-bio is empty
01:41 AM on 03/09/2012
This is terrible. I don't want plants to bloom sooner, last longer and produce more clean oxygen in the process.
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Jeremyewilliams
Reality is not the GOPs cup of tea!
07:49 AM on 03/09/2012
This shows how little you are able to comprehend.
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alteredstory
Hold on to the center
11:44 AM on 03/09/2012
I can give you a primer on why this is a bad thing, both for plants, and for us, but I'm not going to waste the time if you're not going to read it. Let me know if you want to learn something.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
10:09 PM on 03/08/2012
Yeah, it is definitely a very early spring this year. This is part of a long term trend that ought to make intelligent adults stop and say whoa... this isn't normal... what are the implications of this, whatever the cause.....

Anyone who has spent more than a little time pondering the beautiful synchronicity of nature and biology is apt to be concerned, because rapid climate change can spell disaster for the food supply. Ecological disaster could potentially propagate rapidly because of the interdependence of life. Hopefully this will not happen. But what if it does? When plants break dormancy early, and then a cold snap hits, all sorts of perennial crops can get wiped out. Insects are emerging early. Are the birds here to eat them yet? What is going to keep mosquitoes in check if the swallows and fly catchers aren't here yet? What are the implications of extra generations of mosquitoes due to a longer breeding season? How are farmers going to deal with extra insect pests emerging because the winter was too weak to kill off a normal percentage of them?

Things could get very bad very quickly. I really hope that it doesn't. But if it does, don't say that we didn't warn you. And if everything does turn out badly, perhaps people will finally turn off FOX TV and wake up to the world around them and start acting like it is the 21st century.
09:47 AM on 03/09/2012
Only adults who can't be bothered to look at statistics believe in global warming

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.D.gif
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alteredstory
Hold on to the center
11:45 AM on 03/09/2012
You know what's funny? You claim fidelity to statistics, while ignoring 99% of the data.
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nomadrdw
Zen Druid
12:06 PM on 03/09/2012
and only an idiot denies what is before their very eyes.
stats can be made to say anything you want depending on how you look at them....
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dmeekthemimi
08:31 PM on 03/08/2012
Here in North Texas, we have already seen mosquitos, bees and other insects that usually aren't apparent until bout 3 weeks later. The mesqite trees don't usually bud until the last chance of a freeze is over and when I was looking for the dog when he got out last week, the limbs on them are green and starting to bud. All the trees are ahead of time and the bluebonnets are ahead of schedule, too. (I live on the bluebonnet trails of Texas.) At this rate, summer is going to be a guessing game! Heopefully, it won't be like last summer!! I can't do another summer lke last year and they are telling us alrwady we will be short of electricity and we will have rolling blackouts! The bills were $600 a month last summer. The flora and fauna aren't the only things that will have issues with the weather!
09:47 AM on 03/09/2012
And over here in Europe, there are still no signs of Spring.
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nomadrdw
Zen Druid
12:12 PM on 03/09/2012
what part of some places will get colder, some hotter, some will be more dry and some will be more wet don't you get. just can't comprehend beyond your own sight eh?
12:35 PM on 03/09/2012
Nope, I'm lost. Where I live happens to have the world's longest temperature record. Global warming should lift all boats eventually. The statistics only show significant warming in the Arctic. Anywhere where people actually live haven't seen much warming at all. Australia's been colder than normal lately, the UK had a very cold start to February and a warmer than normal end to February. At the moment, it's about normal. Only the north east of the US has had a significantly warmer than normal February. The West of the US, it's been entirely normal.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/