Mississippi, Alabama Polls Still Close; Rick Santorum Fading?

Republican presidential candidates, from left, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) stand together for the National Anthem before the start of a Republican presidential debate Feb. 22, 2012, in Mesa, Ariz. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

WASHINGTON -- Tuesday's Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi may be the most suspenseful so far, because the few public polls available have produced inconsistent results that collectively point to close finishes in both states.

In Alabama, three late polls show Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum running in a three-way dead heat. In Mississippi, the final polls can't agree on a leader, though their one common finding is that Santorum appears headed for a third place finish behind Romney and Gingrich.

The two most recent telephone polls in each state were released on Sunday night by the Democratic party affiliated firm Public Policy Polling (PPP). The polls were conducted March 10 to 11 using an automated, recorded voice methodology.

The PPP survey in Alabama shows Romney, Gingrich and Santorum receiving 31, 30 and 29 percent of the vote respectively, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) with 8 percent. That finding amounts to a three-way photo finish given the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error for each candidate.

PPP's Alabama results were nearly identical to a Rasmussen Reports automated survey conducted on Thursday. That poll also found Romney, Santorum and Gingrich within two percentage points of each other, winning 28, 29 and 30 percent of the vote respectively.

However, two more Alabama surveys fielded over a wider time period last week found different results. A Capitol Research poll had former Massachusetts Gov. Romney leading former House Speaker Gingrich (R-Ga.) by five points, while a poll conducted by Alabama State University showed former Sen. Santorum (R-Pa.) fading to third place (but inexplicably failed to include Paul as a choice, used the smallest sample size and found a much larger undecided percentage).

The final polls in Mississippi have been more varied. PPP's weekend poll showed Gingrich running just two percentage points ahead of Romney (33 to 31 percent) followed by Santorum (27 percent), with Paul running a distant fourth (at 7 percent).

The PPP result in Mississippi comes very close to the results of a live interviewer survey conducted in the state by the American Research Group (ARG) on March 7-8, which showed Gingrich up by a similar margin over Romney (35 to 31 percent) but with Santorum running further behind (at 20 percent).

However, a Rasmussen automated poll conducted on Thursday in Mississippi produced a very different result, showing Romney with a clear lead (at 35 percent) followed by both Santorum and Gingrich (at 27 percent).

The contradictory findings in Mississippi and Alabama highlight a lack of precision and stability and suggest that, collectively, pollsters are having trouble identifying the likely electorate. These two states have given pollsters trouble before. Nate Silver notes via Twitter that his compilation of past primary polls shows that pollster error in Alabama and Mississippi "has been about 50% higher than in other states."

Also, as blogger Harry Enten points out, three of the final four polls on the Alabama Republican primary in 2008 showed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) leading former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee -- two polls showed McCain leading by fairly wide margins. Yet Huckabee defeated McCain, 41 to 37 percent.

Given the close and inconsistent findings of the final polls in Alabama and Mississippi and the poor track record of past horserace polling there, the potential for a Tuesday night surprise is significant.

UPDATE: The American Research Group released two new polls on Monday conducted over the weekend in Alabama and Mississippi that confirm the close race for first and second in both races that has been measured by other polls.

In Alabama, ARG finds Gingrich running three percentage points ahead of Romney (34 to 31 percent), followed by Santorum (24 percent) in third and Paul a distant fourth (at 6 percent).

In Mississippi, ARG has Romney edging Gingrich (34 to 32 percent) with Santorum in third (at 22 percent) and Paul again a distant fourth (8 percent).

Neither poll shows a statistically significant difference between the top two candidates. When viewed against the other surveys, neither Gingrich nor Romney appears to have a consistent advantage in either state.

ARG's results in both states differ in giving Santorum a smaller percentage of the vote than most of the other recent surveys, particularly the automated polls from Rasmussen and PPP. For Santorum, whose campaign strategy reportedly hoped to "knock out" Gingrich with a sweep of Alabama and Mississippi, that news is not good.

Comments

[dallasnew]

12:57 PM on 03/13/2012

I hope that Santorum fades significantly and comes in third in both states. The sooner his bid for the nomination comes to an end, the better. Personally, I'm sick of seeing him on TV espousing his desperate plans and divisive message.

[Watching rock grow]

01:30 PM on 03/13/2012

As much as I agree with you, Santorum will run again. This has been only his first real attempt with nothing much to convince him never to run again.

[dallasnew]

02:15 PM on 03/13/2012

If he ever runs again for the Republican presidential nomination it will probably mirror John Edwards' bid. In other words, he'll always be the no quite favorite.

[xmaskarol]

09:43 AM on 03/13/2012

Its a charade, most folks 'know' Santorum is going nowhere, you can feel it, same goes for the other loosers, Newt et al.

The reason the charade goes on is simple...its the money! All the political advisors are making a living from perpetuating this so called campaign...and all the adds on raido, and television. Come to think of it I think T. V. is the driving force behind a lot of this, just look at the revenue. If honesty would prevail we could put a stop to the charade...

[dng999]

02:32 AM on 03/13/2012

Message to Santorum from DNC:

Stay in there you're doing great

[bestintravel]

02:07 AM on 03/13/2012

ABO

[bestintravel]

01:39 AM on 03/13/2012

Santorum=Rubio 2012

[Patricia Teel]

12:11 AM on 03/13/2012

I want a dislike button

[noygdb]

10:40 PM on 03/12/2012

why the shock?? just because they hide the white robes and pointy hoods? it's still the south

[accmiller]

11:46 AM on 03/13/2012

Which is much more desegregated than any town up north.

[wickedlilxtalena]

10:07 PM on 03/12/2012

These 3 clowns need to do the act that requires them all to fit inside a little car and drive it off a cliff or into the ocean or something and just simply disappear.....

[Hope4us2change]

09:06 PM on 03/12/2012

Santorum's and Gangrich's endless attacks against Mitt Romney tells volumes about their character. They are desperate men trying to pull the front runner down using character assassination as their favorite tool. Santorum lacks experience, has ideas that are too far out there like disliking higher education, he pushes home schooling, he doesn't like contraception, and on and on. Gangrich hasn't held a real job in 15 years. Who in this society would hire a man of his age who hasn't worked in 15 years--no one. His personal life it anything but moral. He was thrown out of his government job and was fined. A lot of folks that worked with him said he was "never on task" and short tempered-certainly not good qualities of a future president. Mitt has a good platform, he has integrity and a sense of humor-I like what he says about our country--he loves our country and wants to help it--he isn't doing it for the pay check. We need new direction, and I'm hoping he will fire a lot of the Washington D. C. stinkers--we need a good shake up back there.

[donia1970]

09:31 PM on 03/12/2012

...and Romney doesn't spend his millions a t tacking his opponents?! I'm in the South, and the only ads are Romney ads, and they're ALL negative....

[trinity77]

12:00 AM on 03/13/2012

What Mitt are you talking about because it sure isnt Romney; integrity?....You must be joking the man is a chronic liar and the media is finally starting to call him on it.

[mrrgl]

07:15 PM on 03/12/2012

These guys should run into oblivion.

[Mark Seydel]

06:15 PM on 03/12/2012

Messed up!

Romney leading former House Speaker Gingrich (R-Ga.) by five points, while a poll conducted by Alabama State University showed former Sen. Santorum (R-Pa.) fading to third place (but inexplicably failed to include Paul as a choice, used the smallest sample size and found a much larger undecided percentage).

[trinity77]

12:02 AM on 03/13/2012

Mitt is buying these races, the question is will Americans let him and the Koch brothers buy America?

[Sundalecat]

12:48 AM on 03/13/2012

F&F!

[dng999]

02:34 AM on 03/13/2012

Comrade do not forget to compare Romney with Gordon Gecko.

David Axelrod

[lawa]

05:35 PM on 03/12/2012

4 men running aint dimes worth a difference between either. still asking where the hell did yall find them. aint nothin better? my druthers are to keep the one we got

[Stephen Monahan]

04:30 PM on 03/12/2012

Go to Rick Santorums page on facebook. Note the differences between him and Ron Paul. Ron Paul has almost a million supporters, Rick Santorum has less than 200,000. Ron Paul has lots of pictures showing his rallies where thousands of people come to support him. Rick Santorum has pictures of a couple families and several of lone people here and there showing their support. Yet Ron Paul has not won ANY caucus or primary and Rick Santorum has...? Its obvious that something is very wrong... Spread the word, we're being cheated out of our constitiutional right to vote. Ron Paul is being cheated out of our votes...We can't let this go on...Ron Paul 2012

[Mark Seydel]

06:15 PM on 03/12/2012

The whole thing makes me sick.

[handle this]

12:24 AM on 03/13/2012

It does seem unusual that he has a huge following and an online presence that rivals Obamma, yet has not won an caucuses. He's not even in the picture for this article yet the news media has shown many times how it is influenced dramatically by internet users (Kony anyone?) but not at all for Ron Paul.

[Stephen Monahan]

04:22 PM on 03/12/2012

Ron Paul Openly Calls GOP Election Fraud!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=X_LWRc5dRM8

[Stephen Monahan]

04:21 PM on 03/12/2012

Ron Paul Tells Reporters He Is Suspicious About Results Of GOP Caucuses

Congressman says he has “theories” that foul play may be involved

http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-tells-reporters-he-is-suspicious-about-results-of-gop-caucuses/