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Lucia Graves
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NASA Climate Change Letter Belongs To Long Tradition Of Fake Expertise

Posted: 04/13/2012 5:36 pm Updated: 04/14/2012 8:31 pm

WASHINGTON -- When former NASA administrators, astronauts and engineers released a letter earlier this week attacking the science of climate change, its veneer of legitimacy kicked off a media blitz. Yet none of the letter's 49 signatories are climate scientists, and with more than 18,000 people currently working for NASA, to say nothing of the tens of thousands more who are retired, the letter seems more than anything like an empty publicity stunt, and one for which there's considerable precedent.

"When you have an area of the science where there is a consensus like in climate change, where the problem is real and the scientific implications are on a collision course with vested interests like the fossil fuel industry, you often see this," said Michael Mann, a well-known climate scientist and Penn State professor.

NASA has been clear that it firmly accepts the reality of the science behind climate change, including the work of renowned climate scientist James Hansen, so complaints from a few dozen retired NASA administrators and a handful of astronauts and engineers calling on NASA to stop saying that anthropogenic carbon dioxide causes climate change can hardly be taken seriously.

A full 98 percent of all working climate scientists affirm anthropogenic climate change, according to a paper published in 2010 in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found the evidence that the world is warming to be "unequivocal."

"They can't discredit the science in the legitimate sphere of scientific debate, which is to say, the peer-reviewed literature, the various assessment reports published by various governments ... so what they try to do is create the illusion that the science is being hotly contested by finding the small group, often of curmudgeonly individuals, who might feel left out," said Mann, who documents this recurrent phenomenon in his newly released book, "The Hockey Stick And The Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines."

Author John Cook similarly considers such public announcements as one of the five most easily identifiable characteristics of science denialism, wherein deniers use fake experts to undermine established science.

"These are individuals purporting to be experts but whose views are inconsistent with established knowledge," writes Cook. "Fake experts have been used extensively by the tobacco industry who developed a strategy to recruit scientists who would counteract the growing evidence on the harmful effects of second-hand smoke."

The stunts gain traction in part because it can be hard for non-experts to determine what is and what isn't legitimate criticism. Evolutionary biologists, who've long had to contend with such attacks, have parodied the trickery with "Project Steve," a media stunt in which they collected the signatures only of evolutionary biologists named Steve to demonstrate how easy it is to round up a group people who'll sign on to just about anything.

There's a long history of climate deniers who write such letters (their preferred vehicle) to voice their discontent. The much-discussed Oregon Petition has been repeatedly debunked, with both the scientific credentials and the authenticity of its signatories' names being called into question. When Scientific American took a random sample of 30 of the 1,400 signatories, for instance, only "11 said they still agreed with the petition -- one was an active climate researcher, two others had relevant expertise, and eight signed based on an informal evaluation. Six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember any such petition, one had died, and five did not answer repeated messages."

Another effort, known as the Wall Street Journal 16, urged people not to take any actions to address climate change. Spearheaded by Harrison Schmitt, who also helped organize this week's letter from former NASA employees, the op-ed boasted only two climate scientists who'd published climate research in the past three decades. What's more, nearly half of the 16 scientists on the list had received fossil fuel industry funding, according to Skeptical Science.

In 1995 the so-called Leipzig Declaration sought to refute the claim that there's scientific consensus on global warming and offered its stated opposition to global warming science as a reason to defy the Kyoto Protocol, which, the deniers argued, imposed unfair burdens on industrialized nations. The wording of the declaration mirrors wording in the 1992 "Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming," which described the climate science findings as "highly uncertain" while also arguing an increase in carbon dioxide would have "beneficial effects on most crops."

Mann -- who, having survived the phony Climategate scandal, has as much experience as anyone in fighting off the political attacks of climate deniers -- offered a bit of media bait of his own.

"What's really telling is that they couldn't get people like Buzz Aldrin -- or for that matter John Glenn -- to sign this petition," Mann said. "I think it speaks volumes that the most prominent astronauts were completely uninterested in having any part in this ploy, and I was proud of them for that."

Related on HuffPost:

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WASHINGTON -- When former NASA administrators, astronauts and engineers released a letter earlier this week attacking the science of climate change, its veneer of legitimacy kicked off a media blitz.
WASHINGTON -- When former NASA administrators, astronauts and engineers released a letter earlier this week attacking the science of climate change, its veneer of legitimacy kicked off a media blitz.
 
 
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Uncle Bill 09:51 PM on 04/14/2012
Simply working at NASA or having a degree in engineering or another science does not make one an expert on climatology, anymore than being a podiatrist or a nurse makes one an expert on cardiac surgery. I would trust a expert's opinion on re-entry vehicles on space flight against even the group consensus of climatologists, and for the same reason I would not trust the consensus view of a bunch of aerospace  Read More...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
highstreet
Small business owner/urban farmer
08:17 PM on 05/16/2013
It's sad when people feel they need to be "expertise snobs" instead of showing respect to many who have done great things for this country. It hardly takes an expert to understand the science behind climate change.

And to misconstrue their letter as anything besides a simple request for empirical science only is beyond the pale. It shows the desperation of those who like their alarmist predictions and cannot give up their apocalyptic leanings long enough to read the science from a different viewpoint.
11:23 AM on 07/06/2012
You know what is absolutely amazing? The number of people with beliefs that directly contradict a vast body of data that scientists have measured in order to REPRESENT REALITY. Too few people understand that this is the mission of science, to be able to understand natural reality as it is. The scientific method is poorly understood publicly in the United States. This is sad, since it is on standby to solve all the world's most complicated problems.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
what0now0toons
03:04 PM on 04/20/2012
What some people will do for the love of money is despicable!
www.whatnowtoons.com
Left of center independent political cartoons
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fumes
Midnight Toker
12:02 PM on 04/20/2012
"..in March, global temperatures were the coolest since 1999, according to NOAA climate statistics."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-yeager/march-temperatures-record_1_b_1436228.html
10:30 PM on 04/20/2012
You forgot to mention that March was also the warmest in US history.

"Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2069
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fumes
Midnight Toker
08:33 AM on 04/21/2012
the jet stream caused that. and the sun caused the jet stream to do that. and globally it was cooler. you remember globally.. the point that has all you alarmists losing sleep.
MGhamma
Reality is 100% biased!
11:05 PM on 04/21/2012
Two La Nina years in a row will do that.

You really aren't very good at this debating thing, are you?
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fumes
Midnight Toker
11:05 PM on 04/19/2012
State of Himalayan glaciers less alarming than feared
April 19th, 2012 in Space & Earth / Earth Sciences

The large glacial lake Imja Thso in the Imja Valley south of Mt. Everest/Nepal formed in the 1960s and has grown continuously ever since. The 3-D view was generated from an ASTER satellite image. Credit: T. Bolch, Universität Zürich/TU Dresden
Ever since the false prognoses of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Himalayan glaciers have been a focus of public and scientific debate. The gaps in our knowledge of glaciers in the Himalayan region have hindered accurate statements and prognoses. An international team of researchers headed by glaciologists from the University of Zurich and with the involvement of scientists from Geneva now outlines the current state of knowledge of glaciers in the Himalayas in a study published in Science. The scientists confirm that the shrinkage scenarios for Himalayan glaciers published in the last IPCC report were exaggerated.
http://phys.org/print254064558.html
07:29 AM on 04/20/2012
This is a favorite meme of the denialists. There were apparently some mistakes in this section of the huge IPCC report, which were seized on as incontrovertible evidence of gross incompetence and mendaciousness by the deniers, and used as ammunition to discredit the whole effort by implication.

Which is, of course, crazy. Any huge report will have some mistakes, and this one is fairly minor and does not change the conclusions of the report. Glaciers everywhere are, in the main, shrinking pretty quickly. Arctic sea ice is declining precipitously. Temperatures are increasing (the "no warming since 1998" meme is another misleading "talking point"). And so on.
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fumes
Midnight Toker
11:55 AM on 04/20/2012
'' Any huge report will have some mistakes..''
-------------------
The UN's panel of climate scientists said on Monday it would probe claims it's doomsday prediction for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers was wrong. In an interview with AFP, a leading glaciologist who contributed to the Fourth Assessment Report described the mistake as huge AND SAID HE HAD NOTIFIED HIS COLLEAGUES OF IT in late 2006, months before publication AND YEARS BEFORE COPENHAGEN.
http://www.physorg.com/news183047679.html
11:42 PM on 04/20/2012
Why are you ignoring the rest of the world's ice? Don't you think it's kind of important?

Land Ice:

About 148 billion tons of annual land ice loss comes from glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica and 385 billion tons of annual land ice loss comes from Greenland and Antarctica -- a total of more than 530 billion tons. The annual ice loss is now accelerating rapidly. (Jacob et al, 2012)

Sea Ice:
1. Maximum Extent: The winter months prior to, and around the **maximum** Arctic sea ice extent reached in March, 2012 and it was:

- 9th lowest out of the 34 years of satellite data
- 530,000 kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average extent

March sea ice extent showing a decline of 2.6% per decade
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

2. Minimum Extent: The **minimum** extent of Arctic sea ice reached in September 2011, was:

- the SECOND LOWEST on record
- 2.38 million square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum

Monthly August ice extent shows a decline of 9.3% per decade
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20110906_Figure3.png

3. Volume: Sea ice volume takes into account both sea ice thickness and extent. Last year's sea ice volume was:

- the LOWEST on record
- 66% lower than the mean over this period

Arctic sea ice volume trend from PIOMAS
http://tinyurl.com/3boqdvp
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fumes
Midnight Toker
09:55 AM on 04/21/2012
the river of heat behind tyndall's dam is increasing.. no doubt. but if tyndall's dam were improved by additional ghg there would be no himalayan ice either. it's our river of heat we must address. we're paving paradise and putting up too many parking lots.
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fumes
Midnight Toker
10:14 PM on 04/18/2012
Moynihan, as Nixon aide, warned of global warming

YORBA LINDA, Calif. — Documents released Friday by the Nixon Presidential Library show members of President Richard Nixon's inner circle discussing the possibilities of global warming more than 30 years ago.

Adviser Daniel Patrick Moynihan, notable as a Democrat in the administration, urged the administration to initiate a worldwide system of monitoring carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, decades before the issue of global warming came to the public's attention.

There is widespread agreement that carbon dioxide content will rise 25 percent by 2000, Moynihan wrote in a September 1969 memo.

"This could increase the average temperature near the earth's surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit," he wrote. "This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter."
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
02:08 PM on 04/19/2012
We talked about this last summer:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

If only Nixon had gotten the ball rolling back in 1969. The IPCC's synthesis indicates that greenhouse gases rose 70-percent between 1970 and 2004. In 2004, three-quarters of that gas was CO2. Since the quotes don't specify Moynihan's source, it is hard to evaluate his claim. It appears to have underestimated the quantity of pollution and overestimated it's effect.

Is your point to hold today's scientists responsible for what politicians said behind closed doors three decades ago? If that is the case, then lets talk about Romney's Watergate problem.
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Midnight Toker
03:08 PM on 04/19/2012
i'm a dem doc! i voted for O and i'm sorry to say i'm going to vote for him again. re: moynihan: thanks for pointing out MORE CO2 has had LESS effect. more ghg isn't all that scary now is it?
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fumes
Midnight Toker
10:11 PM on 04/18/2012
Sunlight changes aerosols into clouds
October 12th, 2011 in Space & Earth / Earth Sciences
(PhysOrg.com) -- Today's climate models regard organic aerosols as static carbon-based molecules, but scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of California, Irvine showed that the particles are very dynamic. Exposure to sunlight transforms the aerosol composition drastically. "We found that exposing particles to sunlight makes the particles increasingly more oxidized and acidic, which in turn makes it easier for such particles to nucleate water and make cloud droplets," said Professor Sergey Nizkorodov, a physical chemist at UCI who led the study.
The optical properties of the particles also change. Specifically, the light causes the particles to fade and become less light absorbing. When freshly prepared, particles absorb some light, but as the particles fade, they absorb significantly less. This study further highlights the complexity and dynamic nature of atmospheric particles that may have a significant effect on the environment.
http://www.physorg.com/print237626851.html
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
06:41 PM on 04/18/2012
Ain't it intriguing how, when 'science' says man is causing global warming via CO2 omissions, the Left says "HERE, HERE! - and when 'science' says facking isn't polluting ground water the Left says "BS!."
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
09:22 PM on 04/18/2012
Here we go again, setting up a false equivalence.
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
02:12 PM on 04/19/2012
What science says that fracking isn't polluting ground water? Folks are lighting up their tap water.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
05:17 PM on 04/19/2012
He doesn't even know that it's "Hear, hear".  I think his science research/understanding isn't likely to be top-notch.
12:38 PM on 04/18/2012
Comment Part 2

The signatories of the NASA letter fall squarely into the latter group; they are NOT the wizards. Rather, they are more like that one kid at little league. He’s an earnest child, but a human disaster area. No one wants him on their team. He’s the kid still screaming: “I got it! I got it!” as the ball sails past his glove and into his face. When he does hit the ball, the bat follows him to first. And even though he’s called out, he keeps rounding the bases bat in hand. Infielders dive for cover while the umpires charge after him, scrambling to regain control of the unfolding debacle.
If the real wizards wish to regain control of this debacle, they must disengage from the meaningless exchange of facts. The AGW debate is no longer a debate but a war of the pundits in which each side is more interested in establishing its own authority than in actually communicating something to the public. The resulting cacophony casts the public adrift in a sea of confusion and skepticism. Which experts are they to believe? The wizards must leave their ivory towers and focus instead on providing the public, not with more meaningless facts about climate change, but with tools that will lead to an intuitive understanding and that will give them a way to make a difference.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
02:10 PM on 04/18/2012
Except those "wizards" (your term, not mine) don't own the media, don't have vast sums of money to spend spewing disinformation, don't own our education system, etc.

I don't disagree with your characterization of the problem, but to place the blame on the scientists themselves seems unfair, and to expect them to solve the problem is likewise unfair AND impossible.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
02:11 PM on 04/18/2012
"spend spewing disinformation"  (I mean like the oil companies, Koch brothers, etc. -- not that the scientists would themselves spew disinformation if they had nearly unlimited funds themselves)
12:37 PM on 04/18/2012
Comment Part 1

On March 28, 49 former NASA employees signed a letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. The letter, reportedly endorsed by Leighton Steward of The Heartland Institute, admonished NASA for its support of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) and accused NASA of supporting unsubstantiated science and ignoring “thousands of years of empirical evidence.” The signatories, including 11 former Apollo astronauts, wrote: “We believe the claims by NASA…that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change, are not substantiated.” They subsequently urged NASA to “refrain from including unproven and unsupported remarks in its future releases” regarding climate change.
As illustrated by this letter, the public debate on AGW has ceased to be useful. Proponents of each side are equally guilty in engaging in arguments from authority. Each side has its own experts, both real and for-hire; their arguments appeal to the authority of these experts and have transformed the debate into a meaningless exchange of facts. In the public discourse, those who acknowledge AGW are cast as the wizards of ivory towers—effete and feckless. These people, the blue team, are masters of information not easily accessible except to those with a very specialized skill set. Their opponents, the red team, deny the existence of AGW, and are little more than a group of bought-off hacks and charlatans pushing the agendas of their well-heeled masters.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jerryengelbach
Working class heritage
08:49 PM on 05/16/2013
That letter was not written by climate scientists and contained glaring errors of fact. In addition, it was a demand for self-censorship.

http://scholarsandrogues.com/2012/04/25/errors-shortcomings-void-nasa-climate-letter/

The letter, representing only 0.3% of NASA's total workers, relied on the fame of its astronauts for a hearing, not science. NASA's chief scientist answered it quite reasonably:

"If the authors of this letter disagree with specific scientific conclusions made public by NASA scientists, we encourage them to join the debate in the scientific literature or public forums rather than restrict any discourse."

There is no equivalency between those who profess belief in manmade global warming and those who deny it. The former are scientists who have done the research, the latter, except for 3% or so, are not.

There is no additional profit to be made either way in scientific research. The findings do not enrich the researchers regardless of which way they go. As in any field, there are charlatans who falsify data for fame and money. But it would be laughable hyperbole to attribute this to the great majority of climate scientists, or to scientists in general.
09:33 AM on 04/17/2012
I think global warming is quite a good thing. Historically seen, warmer periods have always been good for food production. Plus, some time in the future there will be an ice age again, and a little less icy due to the warming. The future people will thank us!
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ILoveFiction
That's unbelievable!
04:40 PM on 04/17/2012
I come from the future.

Thank you for the drought.
05:17 AM on 04/18/2012
You must come from the next ice age.
Ice ages are particularly dry because a lot of water is stored on the poles and in gletschers. Sea levels drop around 100 meters, so many shallow seas turn into dry land.
On the other hand, warmer periods are usually wetter, since more water is melted from the poles and gletschers and more water evaporates from the seas and rains down on the lands. The people have to take measures to prevent floods or more to saver areas, but dry land will turn into arable land.
Plus, CO2 works as a fertilizer through the air, also increasing food production.

I wonder why climate scientists and the IPCC constantly focus on the negative consequences and not talk about the positive ones. Has anyone ideas why?
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
08:07 AM on 04/17/2012
Ah the fake expertise tradition.....

Case in point. The Medieval warming meme.

Denialists like to imply that they are experts on some topic like the Medieval warming. They seem to want us to believe that climatologists are unaware of global warming trends before the present, or that scientists are ignoring them. Both of those assertions are completely wrong.

Denialists seem to think that a single anecdote, or a collection of anecdotes, with no corroborating evidence, is sufficient to overturn a scientific paradigm, and makes then a authority on a topic. That is also a mistake.

If there is substantial, concrete evidence about some topic, the denialists will typically evade this and fire off some impressive sounding anecdotes, and run away, presumably giggling, satisfied that they have cast doubt on the work of extremely serious, extremely diligent, extremely smart scientists.

Denialists often seem to tend to have loyalties to right wing ideologies, and they apparently ASSUME that everyone else rolls that way, either right or left. The problem with that type of world view, which in fact, I think is theirs, is that some philosophies are largely above mere partisan politics. Scientists live to discover truths and publish them first. In the science game, you automatically lose if you can’t defend your data interpretation against other scientists and their alternative interpretations.

Fake experts don't win in science, but they do win in forums of the ignorant.
07:49 PM on 04/17/2012
How about your fake post?

Not one link, not one shred of evidence nor attempt to persuade .. only blather and name calling .. sad...
10:39 PM on 04/17/2012
I'm afraid that StephenBP speaks from long, bitter, experience, Mr. Volcano.
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CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
11:10 PM on 04/17/2012
Perhaps if you read more posts down thread first?  Just because you showed up late doesn't mean every single post is responsible for bringing you up to speed.
08:56 PM on 04/19/2012
"Fake experts don't win in science, but they do win in forums of the ignorant."

Brilliantly stated.
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
09:28 PM on 04/16/2012
I suggest we need to republicize the famous hockey-stick chart - this time with the medievil warming period included and the last twelve years accurately presented. Then we can all sit down and have an adult conversation about where to go from here..
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FranklinCat
18 claws & 3½ fangs
09:50 PM on 04/16/2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png
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FranklinCat
18 claws & 3½ fangs
10:02 PM on 04/16/2012
And the article that it comes from is a nice succinct history of the recent science.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years

So have there been any drastic changes to the general discussion?
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CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
10:39 PM on 04/16/2012
This got knocked down the last time you posted it.  So you just try it again?  (Though misspelling "medieval" for some reason, this time.)
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Bogstomper2
Secular conservative
01:52 PM on 04/16/2012
Who's still on your side, deniers? Science is against you, the military is against you, the free market is against you. The only people who might still agree with the GOP's anti-science platform are the GOP and a few witch-burning primitives in the remote parts of the world.

Maybe you should rename it the "She Turned Me Into a Newt" party...
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fumes
Midnight Toker
04:37 PM on 04/16/2012
braindead there stomper LOL?

(it's not a GOP thing)
06:42 PM on 04/16/2012
Your judgement is clearly impaired.

(it's a weed thing)
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
09:40 PM on 04/18/2012
Pssst, fumes. Stomper is a conservative, but he doesn't wear their blinders or reins. Stomper has a pretty solid perspective.

Now go ahead and tell him you didn't mean it.
10:25 PM on 04/16/2012
They got better!
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fumes
Midnight Toker
01:46 PM on 04/16/2012
Hemp produces viable biodiesel, study finds
October 6th, 2010 in Technology / Energy & Green Tech

(PhysOrg.com) -- Industrial hemp, which grows in infertile soils, is attractive as a potential source of sustainable diesel fuel.
Of all the various uses for Cannabis plants, add another, “green” one to the mix.
Researchers at UConn have found that the fiber crop Cannabis sativa, known as industrial hemp, has properties that make it viable and even attractive as a raw material, or feedstock, for producing biodiesel – sustainable diesel fuel made from renewable plant sources.
The plant’s ability to grow in infertile soils also reduces the need to grow it on primary croplands, which can then be reserved for growing food, says Richard Parnas, a professor of chemical, materials, and biomolecular engineering who led the study.
http://www.physorg.com/print205599757.html
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CabinAgue
We are ALL in this together.
02:00 PM on 04/16/2012
You are quoting actual scientists?  What's up?
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FranklinCat
18 claws & 3½ fangs
05:23 PM on 04/16/2012
So why is this better than burning fossil carbon?
10:27 PM on 04/16/2012
In principle, biomass is carbon that was just now taken out of the atmosphere, and which you return, so you don't add to the carbon cycle like you do with fossil fuels.

I want to live downwind of the processing plant.