Cigarettes Could Reach $80 Per Pack In New Zealand

As part of an effort to make New Zealand a smoke-free nation by the year 2025, officials at the Ministry of Health have commissioned an economics forecasting firm to model a variety of pricing scenarios showing how increasing the cost of cigarettes would effect smoking prevalence, 3 News reports.

The modeling found that in order to achieve a population-wide smoking prevalence of 5 percent or less, New Zealand would have to institute a pricing plan that would the increase the cost of cigarettes to $100 NZD (about $80 USD) per pack by 2020 with price tags "increasing exponentially after that."

Health officials said that even if the nation were to increase the price of cigarettes to around $40 NZD ($32 USD) per pack by the year 2025, it would fail to achieve the desired smoking prevalence.

Those pricing options were outlined in a 17-page report titled "Smoke-free New Zealand 2025: next steps in tobacco control," which 3 News obtained from the Ministry of Health under the nation's Official Information Act.

The report was part of a preliminary investigation into pricing models for decreasing smoking prevalence and does not reflect government policy. But the report did offer a number of suggestions for stubbing out smoking that may raise eyebrows.

"While year-on [cigarette pack price] increases of 30% are probably unrealistic, a combined scenario with a large "shock" increase in 2013 and then regular incremental increases of 10% after that would be more reasonable to propose," the report read. That means New Zealanders could realistically see the price of a pack of cigarettes rise to around $60 NZD ($49 USD) by 2025, according to 3 News.

That's a far cry from current prices. According to the Ministry of Health report, the cost of a pack of Holiday 20s -- New Zealand's best-selling cigarette brand -- now stands at $14.40 NZD ($11.70 USD).

But not all are in agreement that the plan will work. Dr. Steve Lim, senior economics lecturer at Waikato University, said that raising the cost of cigarettes to unaffordable levels would lead to a black market for tobacco and target poor families.

"People will find ways to circumvent this," Lim told the Waikato Times. "It would be reasonable to expect that underground markets would emerge for either smuggled or homegrown tobacco."

But advocates say the measures are necessary if the nation wants to achieve its goal of leading the world on anti-tobacco policy.

Comments

[rossy tie]

02:20 AM on 07/19/2012

The material and aggregation is excellent and telltale as comfortably.

http://www.camelblue.net/

[opuslola]

04:33 PM on 05/02/2012

Yes, if the government continues to push for such high prices, then only those who have the money to purchase cigs on either the open market at $60.00+ per pack, or maybe purchase them on the "Black Market" for $30.00 or less. This would make those who can afford either to become somewhat then in a celebrity status. Great idea NZ.

Why don't you just leave the people alone? "Let Freedom Ring", so to speak!

The desire for Socialists/Progressives to interfer with the actions of others cannot be limited to just Cigs, thus liquor and other depressives and stimulants, which they don't agree with will face the same actions. Hey how about beef raised to $100.00 per pound? Or coffee and tea. etc.?

Don't worry as long as regular people let one group get screwed, then most all groups will soon be screwed by these "do gooders" given the time and monies.

Good luck,
Ron

[Steven Mitchell]

04:48 AM on 08/01/2012

Why would they raise the price of coffee and tea? Those are good for you.

[novasarc1]

04:13 PM on 05/02/2012

ok lets look at the big picture. you raise the prices that high: 1- you get most of the nation to stop smoking where is the state going to recoup the lost taxes they charge for a pack of cigs. 2- how many people will lose their jobs because factories that make cigs are closing. 3- like other post you will have a black market for cigs. 4- how many people or businesses will get robbed because the price of cigs will be that high. the real issue is that the govt is budding in on freedoms if you want to smoke do it govt. shoulding force you to quit because by charching high prices. and for all of the people that have something to say about the health cost related to smoking let smokers pay more, i have smoked for over 30yrs and do not have health issues i can run circles around people half my age.

[Nixt]

04:08 AM on 04/28/2012

Concluding my last post (hit the word limit):

Last- the black market would exist if the prices ever went that high, sure. But to draw analogy to illegal drug markets is to both miss the point and to misjudge those who engage in trade like that. One poster here mentions what it would look like: the S.C. to N.Y. black market. Illegal, sure. But these people aren't car-jacking or house-breaking crack addict thugs. They're just opportunists making a buck. Any illegal trade here would resemble *that* more than anything else.

[Nixt]

04:07 AM on 04/28/2012

OK, as an American expat SMOKER living in New Zealand I've this to say:

First- at least the NZ gov't is trying to do something about it. What the F*** is the US gov't doing about it? Near nothing, that's what.
Second- Price/tax increases are a *part* of their overall plan and tactics. An important part, but certainly not the only thing they are up to.
Third- I've tried to quit multiple times, and it's hard to do for me. Incredibly hard. In the US, it's "F*** you, buddy - pay or go away" if you need help to quit, but here at least the gov't is willing to help pay for or fully pay for quit help. That help is both in counseling and in paid-by-tobacco-taxes funding of nicotine replacement tools. This drug is worse than many other illlegal ones when it comes to the strength of the addiction. It's said by some former addicts to be harder than kicking a crack habit. So I am grateful that the NZ gov't invests the time & money into reducing smoking here.

[Nixt]

03:47 AM on 04/28/2012

test

[cybogoblin]

06:21 PM on 04/27/2012

Don't worry. Even if they do ban cigarettes, there will still be plenty of 'pipe weed' to go around.

[idontcare761]

10:15 AM on 04/26/2012

I quit smoking 3 years ago. Part of the reason I quit was because of the price increases , part was because they just didn't give me the relaxation/pleasure that they used to do , it really was an addiction at that point.
Tobacco IS an addiction , raising prices won't keep people from smoking. Most can't quit on their own , so I hope as tobacco prices go up , more help is available at a reasonable , if not free , cost.
Raising prices is probably a good way to keep younger people from ever starting. Had cigarettes been more expensive and unavailable (I used to get mine at a nearby pizza place in a vending machine when I was 15) , maybe I wouldn't have taken up the nasty habit.

[Pararoid]

09:40 PM on 04/26/2012

Good call, this is far more about getting people to stop than trying to stop someone who has been smoking for 50 years and is resigned to die from it, there's nothing that can be done for them. Also since you mentioned it New Zealand has a massive free anti-tobacco program that offers drugs to help with withdrawal and a variety for counseling services.

[idontcare761]

11:48 PM on 04/26/2012

That's great , the lozenges I used to help curb my nicotine monkey was 50 something dollars for the beginners kit. They were worth it though , I used them daily until I no longer felt the urge to light up , about 3 weeks. After that , I used them on occasion when I felt a strong urge , maybe up to a year later.

[jonny dipstick]

10:13 AM on 04/26/2012

Still not expensive enough. It should be so expensive only the 1% should be able to smoke. They should also be forced to smoke. No wait, they are creating jobs right?

[jasev01]

08:11 AM on 04/26/2012

Haha that is worse than coke.  I see the smuggling business booming but good for them.  I really don't like cigarettes.

[AussieHugh]

05:22 AM on 04/26/2012

You did read the article where they said that this was not in fact govt policy and was just part of an ideas paper?

Take a chill pill guys. While in 15 years we in Australia and NZ are hoping to have smoking rates down to about 3-5 percent I am sure that you will all be out supporting the POOR tobacco companies who will be selling their poison into the US market in the name of freedom.

[fredgladys]

11:56 PM on 04/25/2012

Prohibition did wonders for the black market in booze, this will work for those entrepreneurs who will seize on the opportunity to increase their share of the market and sell cigarettes.

[JPMac]

06:08 PM on 04/25/2012

Can you say new black market opportunity in NZ!!!

[2083]

03:53 PM on 04/25/2012

I'm sure that'll do wonders for NZ's crime rate.

[lawa]

02:30 PM on 04/25/2012

i wish that cigarettes were $200 a pack 65 years ago. i wouldnt have COPD today.

[pcs5141]

02:50 PM on 04/25/2012

My dad would probably still be alive.He died at age 88 and his only health problem was LUNG CANCER.

[lawa]

04:59 PM on 04/25/2012

im 75 i have to be concerned during daily workouts and swim about breathing slowly. my lung was so dark it couldnt b found with ultrasound probe. its been about 5 years i quit. i dont wake up coughing anymore. your dad did good i doubt ill be 88, PCS had your dad ever smoke?