MI-2012 President: 50% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R) (Rasmussen 6/14)

Rasmussen
6/14/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen release

Michigan

Obama Job Approval
54% approve, 45% disapprove (chart)

2012 President
50% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R) (chart)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[StatsNo1fan]

11:43 AM on 06/16/2012

"Ginsburg noted that one ACA-related question the court must decide is whether the whole law must fall if the individual mandate is unconstitutional — “or may the mandate be chopped, like a head of broccoli, from the rest of it?”

Doesn't that mean that they ruled the mandate unconstitutional? The court is not going to spend time on hypothetical issues. They are minimalists.

I can't believe this is not front page news everywhere.

[StatsNo1fan]

11:43 AM on 06/16/2012

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77479.html

[dpearl]

11:53 AM on 06/16/2012

Let's examine your logic. She also mentioned that the court must decide if the plaintiffs even have any standing to challenge the law before it goes into affect. Does that mean they are not even going to rule at all? Of course not. She was very carefully avoiding anything that would eve hint at how the court will rule. She reiterated that fact at the end by quoting the old proverb "Those who know don't tell and those who tell don't know."

[StatsNo1fan]

12:15 PM on 06/16/2012

test.

[dpearl]

12:24 PM on 06/16/2012

Justice Ginsburg's full talk can be found at www.c-spanvideo.org/program/GinsburgR
The part about the health care case is around minute 29.

[dpearl]

04:14 PM on 06/15/2012

What I learned today about how political polling is driving the stock market:

Apparently it is illegal to publish an election poll within two weeks of an election in Greece but not illegal to conduct a poll. As a result, hedge funds and others with investments that could radically change value depending on how the Greek's vote this Sunday have been conducting their own "secret polls". By this theory, market rises the last couple of days have been largely attributed to polls that show the two pro-bailout parties (New Democracy and the Socialists) doing well and the anti-bailout parties (Syriza, Independent Greek Party, Communists, and a couple others) sinking.

Reality is always weirder than fiction. I hope the hedge funds have hedged their bets for the MOE.

[stillow1]

04:48 PM on 06/15/2012

That is a strange law....that's a neat little factoid to know about the polling rule there.

[stillow1]

03:16 PM on 06/17/2012

Just glancing at some of the early results...it does not look like Syriza is doing to well.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:33 PM on 06/15/2012

I know, it's absolutely ridiculous. The big corporations are hijacking our entire economy, and they are the ones who are making tons of money in this economy. I think it's up to the media and Obama himself, and his party to dismantle every lie that the tea party right makes. I don't even want to pretend, he can keep up with their Superpacs and he wont. It's going to be defying what the right wing wants and make sure turnout is huge in this election.

It's hard to believe that Greece is such a big financial player, that it's economy is hurting us. I never realized that. The one thing I can say is austerity would be a bigger failure here than it is in Greece. We have much more crime, and a need for infrastructure, plus we have a bigger population. Comparing the US to Europe is like comparing apples and oranges.

[Field Marshall]

03:29 PM on 06/15/2012

For those that missed it on the other poll thread I just want to paste it here for all to enjoy. I'm seriously compiling all of these posts for a book.

"Regardless of how much damage to our democracy will happen due to Citizens united, and how many lies Karl Rove and his allies can say, that they think people will believe if they keep repeating them, their Plan for a permananet Reich or GOP controlled America will come to an end. "

A permananet (sic) Reich. It doesn't get much better than that.

[docboss83]

04:07 PM on 06/15/2012

Great quote. I like it a lot. Of course, Republicans only care about millionaires, so they have no problem with millionaries buying elections.

[runrunrun4fun]

04:50 PM on 06/15/2012

Only the continued belief that Obama is a socialist. Personnally, I think the permanent Reich is a fair comparison based on "the rights" continued attacks.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:19 PM on 06/15/2012

So Obama can hold his current map with 260, granted Virginia doesn't resort back to their old voting patterns, Obama could get Iowa WI and COlorado and win, and still lose Ohio and Florida.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

05:45 PM on 06/15/2012

Nate Silver has O winning all those and Ohio, so I know that the Stats, FM, and Stillow have told us otherwise, but as of right now I think I will go with Nate.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

09:15 PM on 06/15/2012

Ohio, Florida, Iowa, CO, VA and NC will probably have about 20 lead changes between now and the election.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:00 PM on 06/15/2012

I honestly smelled a rat when I saw those other pollsters when it came to polling Michigan. I'm not usually that optimistic, but based on the unpopularity of Snyder and this week's shunning of women on the floor for speaking out against new laws against women, I'm sure a lot of women have buyers remorse in MI. Even Rasmussen gets the clue.

[stillow1]

03:50 PM on 06/15/2012

Could you post some examples of these "new laws against women"?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:19 PM on 06/15/2012

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/15/virginia-board-of-health-_n_1601265.html?ref=topbar Here is one for starters

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:37 PM on 06/15/2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans on Tuesday blocked a Democratic bill calling for equal pay in the workplace. But President Barack Obama and his congressional allies aren't finished appealing to women on the No. 1 concern for all voters: the cash in their wallets on the heels of recession.

As expected, the pay equity bill failed along party lines, 52-47, short of the required 60-vote threshold. But for majority Democrats, passage wasn't the only point. The debate itself was aimed at putting Republicans on the defensive on yet another women's issue, this one overtly economic after a government report showing slower-than-expected job growth.

"It is incredibly disappointing that in this make-or-break moment for the middle class, Senate Republicans put partisan politics ahead of American women and their families," Obama said in a statement after the vote.

"Even Mitt Romney has refused to publicly oppose this legislation," added Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "He should show some leadership."

Unlike past taunts over access to contraception and abortion, Republicans this time didn't take the bait.

In Fort Worth, Texas, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee focused instead on unemployment among Hispanics.

"Of course Gov. Romney supports pay equity for women," said Romney spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg. "In order to have pay equity, women need to have jobs, and they have been getting crushed in this anemic Obama economy."

The device for the choreographed showdown in Washington was a Senate debate over the "Paycheck Fairness Act," a measure that aims to strengthen the Fair Labor

[Political Shakespeare]

02:15 PM on 06/15/2012

Obama up 8 from rasmussen and up only 1 from a democratic pollster? Welcome to bizarro world.

[SergeantSuj]

02:45 PM on 06/15/2012

The purpose of partisan polls isn't to show your side up big just to make your supporters feel better. The purpose is to show it close, so that people are more likely to donate or volunteer. This is true whether your candidate is really up big or down big.

In my opinion, if Romney wins Michigan then he has already won the election by taking Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado anyway.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:21 PM on 06/15/2012

I think Obama should not spend anything on Missouri, or SC or AZ or INdiana. I do think Democrats can still spend money on regional campaigns at the grassroots level, and still win. All politics is local.

[runrunrun4fun]

01:06 PM on 06/15/2012

How quickly people change their mind. :)

[StatsNo1fan]

01:20 PM on 06/15/2012

The two polls are well within MOE of each other, actually.

[runrunrun4fun]

01:48 PM on 06/15/2012

Kind of like PPP on the recall poll, no?

[stillow1]

01:00 PM on 06/15/2012

This looks much more reasonable than other recent polling from MI.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:01 PM on 06/15/2012

'zactly..