By Poornima Gupta
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc faces an unusual phenomenon when reporting earnings this time around: low expectations.
Few are expecting the world's most valuable technology company -- which surpasses Wall Street expectations with near regularity -- to deliver a bumper quarter once more on Tuesday.
The main reason: consumers holding out for the new iPhone.
Apple may still surprise market watchers, but many Wall Street analysts and investors remember how chatter over the launch of a new iPhone last year caused Apple to miss quarterly expectations in the fall, for the first time in years.
The iPhone 5 is only expected to hit store shelves around October -- just in time for the holidays -- with a thinner, larger screen and fine-tuned search features. Couple that pre-launch lull with slowdowns in Europe and China, Apple's biggest markets outside of North America, and sentiment on the Wall Street darling is more muted than many can remember in a while.
"No longer is Apple the company that beats every time," said Tim Lesko, portfolio manager at Granite Investment Advisors, which owns Apple stock. "I expect Apple to beat Apple's guidance, but I don't know whether they will beat Wall Street's guidance."
Tony Sacconaghi, analyst with Bernstein Research, sees a reasonable chance Apple will miss expectations on revenue, citing "macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks."
Any hiccup in demand for the best-selling smartphone can have a big impact on both revenue and profits as the five-year old device accounts for nearly 50 percent for Apple's revenues. And it comes at a time Samsung and other manufacturers that use rival Google Inc's Android software are chipping away at its market share.
Apple is expected to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of $10.35 a share on revenue of $37.2 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Top Wall Street analysts are betting the numbers will undershoot that. Apple may miss the average sales forecast by about 0.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine's SmartEstimates, which places greater emphasis on timely forecasts by top-rated analysts.
IPAD'S LAUNCH IN CHINA
But some analysts also think the Street is underestimating the impact of a late iPad launch in China, a focal point of intense expansion for the company and a huge driver of growth.
Apple began selling the tablet there on Friday, but many had expected it to ship last quarter.
Sales in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan jumped threefold to $7.9 billion in the second quarter, accounting for about 20 percent of Apple's $39.2 billion in total revenue.
The company typically introduces a new iPhone every year, but has yet to reveal any details on the next model.
However, people familiar with the situation have told Reuters the new iPhone will have a bigger display and that Apple has begun to place orders for the new displays from suppliers in South Korea and Japan.
Meanwhile, Apple's iPhone 4S is just three quarters old, which is relatively new by any standard. But many fans of the phone now see it as a cyclical product with somewhat predictable launch timeframes, preferring to wait a few months to buy the new model, analysts said.
Wall Street estimates Apple sold about 29 million iPhones, down from 35.1 million sold in the March quarter. Sales of the new iPad, expected to be 14 million to 15 million, is likely to offset part of the anticipated sequential drop in iPhones sales.
Apart from concerns about iPhone purchases, Wall Street is worried about the rising prominence of Google and Amazon.com in the mobile market, particularly with the launch of Google's smaller and cheaper Nexus 7 tablet, which is gaining popularity.
Still, no one is bearish in the longer term on the world's largest technology company by market value and most Apple watchers believe the company will make up any lost iPhone volume during the holiday season.
"Big picture, it doesn't matter," said Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu. "They are still the share gainer in the larger scheme of things. This is clearly a timing issue."
BIG HOLIDAY SEASON EYED
Wall Street expects that the outlook for this year's holiday season will be enormous for Apple as it may include the launch of a new iPhone as well as a potential new "mini iPad."
Apple has been working on a smaller tablet, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
It is unclear when Apple will launch such a tablet, but some clues are emerging on the timing of the new iPhone.
When Verizon -- one of the wireless carriers that work with Apple -- was asked on Thursday why customers have been holding back on handset upgrades, CFO Fran Shammo said: "There is always that rumor mill out there with a new phone coming out in the fourth quarter and so people may be waiting."
Investors will pick apart executives' comments for clues to new product introductions. While Apple has a policy of never giving advance details or timings on new products, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer has often hinted of "product transition" in earnings conference calls preceding a launch.
Wall Street estimates Apple sold about 4 million Macintosh computers as the PC market saw growth sputter in the quarter.
The lackluster expectations do not appear to have affected Apple's stock, which is up nearly 50 percent so far in 2012. The stock has been choppy since a high of $644 in April. It closed Friday at $604.30 on the Nasdaq.
"Of all the quarters, this is the one that seems to have widest range of opinion," said Granite's Lesko.
(Reporting by Poornima Gupta, Editing by Gary Crosse)
Would You Just Look At All Of These iPhone 5 Cases?
This week's biggest Apple rumors were all about CASES! Sexy and you know it, supposed iPhone 5 cases <a href="http://cydiablog.com/new-iphone-5-tpu-case-6th-generation/" target="_hplink">kept popping up like dandelions</a> this week, perhaps giving us a hint about the specifications of the next iPhone (because case manufacturers -- mostly based in China -- pay for what is supposedly inside information from Apple's supply chain about the size and build of upcoming gadgets, so that they can get a headstart on designing cases and be ready for bulk sales when the device is unveiled). Girl look at these cases: <a href="http://www.tvc-mall.com/details/S-Shape-TPU-Gel-Case-Cover-for-iPhone-5-Black-IPHONE5-601A/" target="_hplink">Available at Chinese parts supplier TVC-mall</a>, the cases line up with what we've seen <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/13/iphone-5-photos-ipad-mini-leaks-apple-rumors_n_1671809.html" target="_hplink">from alleged iPhone leaks</a> over the past several weeks: A taller, thinner device, with the headphone jack moved to the bottom and a much smaller dock connector. The device is said to be getting taller, of course, to accommodate a bigger screen, which will supposedly come in at about 4.0-inches diagonally. Case-makers are not infallible, of course. For example, on September 15, 2011, about a month before the iPhone 4S was unveiled, Boy Genius Report <a href="http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/15/iphone-5-to-have-radical-new-design-according-to-case-mate-images/" target="_hplink">posted an article</a> with the headline "iPhone 5 to have radical new design according to Case-Mate images," complete with slideshow of these images. Apple 1, case-makers 0. Let's see if case-makers can even the score this year.
Here's Another (Alleged) iPhone 5 Case
<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fapple.pro%2Findex.php?do%3D%2Fblog%2F132%2Fiphone5%25E7%258E%25BB%25E7%2592%2583%25E9%259C%25B2%25E5%2587%25BA-ipad-mini-%25E5%2585%25B7%25E6%259C%2589%25E9%259B%25BB%25E8%25A9%25B1%25E5%258A%259F%25E8%2583%25BD%2F" target="_hplink">This one's from Chinese Apple-watcher Apple.pro</a> and, too, shows the taller screen; we're also looking at a front-facing camera that has been moved to the center of the iPhone for head-on video-chatting. The original article is written in Chinese, so let's go to Google Translate for some insight from Apple.pro reporter Anthony Tsai: <blockquote>Although the 2012 summer vacation hot ~ But the news of Apple's New iPhone (iPhone5) with the iPad mini hot ... Apple -- consistent self-adhere to is -- step by step toward the market demand and compromise Drift or to persist in the end To see Tim Cook how the leadership of the future direction of Apple ... </blockquote> Beautifully written. You can "read" <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fapple.pro%2Findex.php?do%3D%2Fblog%2F132%2Fiphone5%25E7%258E%25BB%25E7%2592%2583%25E9%259C%25B2%25E5%2587%25BA-ipad-mini-%25E5%2585%25B7%25E6%259C%2589%25E9%259B%25BB%25E8%25A9%25B1%25E5%258A%259F%25E8%2583%25BD%2F" target="_hplink">the full post here through Google Translate</a>, or if you speak Chinese, <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fapple.pro%2Findex.php?do%3D%2Fblog%2F132%2Fiphone5%25E7%258E%25BB%25E7%2592%2583%25E9%259C%25B2%25E5%2587%25BA-ipad-mini-%25E5%2585%25B7%25E6%259C%2589%25E9%259B%25BB%25E8%25A9%25B1%25E5%258A%259F%25E8%2583%25BD%2F&anno=2" target="_hplink">the original article is available for you here</a>.
Verizon CFO Hints At Fourth Quarter iPhone Launch...Maybe
During a company conference call this past week Verizon CFO Fran Shammo supposedly intimated that the next iPhone might come out in the fourth quarter of this year. <a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57475543-37/verizon-drops-a-hint-on-a-possible-q4-iphone-5-launch/" target="_hplink">CNET picked up on it</a> with an article called "Verizon drops a hint on a possible Q4 iPhone 5 launch." <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/19/3169505/verizon-ct-iphone-launch-q4-rumor" target="_hplink">The Verge has Shammo's actual words</a>: <blockquote>When asked what might have held customers back from upgrading their devices in Q2, Shammo said that "of course there's always that, uh, rumor mill out there with a new phone coming out there in the fourth quarter, so people may be waiting." </blockquote> Here's what this sounds like to me: Shammo is referencing when the rumor mill is saying the iPhone will come out, not actual inside information. Anyone who reads any technology website knows that for months now there have been rumors that the iPhone 5 would be released in September or October; even <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/18/apple-peter-oppenheimer-iphone-rumors_n_1018715.html" target="_hplink">Apple acknowledges that</a> this rumor mill causes customers (for good reason) to wait to upgrade their phones. Shammo knows the rumors exist and knows what they're saying. He didn't divulge anything here (even if the iPhone does come out in the fourth quarter, which every indication points to). Moving along.
Apple Television To Be U.S. Only, Launch In 2014?
Could a (hypothetical) Apple-made television hypothetically be available only in the United States at launch? Hypothetically, yes! At least that's what <a href="http://www.stuff.tv/news/apple-news/rumour-mill/apple-itv-to-be-us-only-at-launch" target="_hplink">two industry analysts told Stuff.tv</a> in a discussion on a (still hypothetical) Apple television. The analysts -- Paul Erickson of IMS and the excellently-named Giles Cottles of Informa -- <a href="http://www.stuff.tv/news/apple-news/rumour-mill/apple-itv-to-be-us-only-at-launch" target="_hplink">explained to Stuff Dot TV</a> that, due to various content licensing agreements across nations, neither would be surprised if the Apple television (which we're not even sure exists yet) went on sale only in the U.S., when (and if) it is released, to be followed by other countries when those agreements get worked out. Obviously, we're not reading too much into the report, as this seems like the idle speculation of analysts, not based on even the most anonymous or flimsy of "sources with knowledge of the situation." It's more chatter than reportage, in other words. In any case, the argument for an America-first launch for a so-called "iTV" does make sense, especially taking into account how difficult it is to stream studio content in different countries. (Netflix, in the midst of an international expansion, can tell you.) So, the iTV could launch in America, and only America, first, and you'll be able to brag to your French cousins that you have one and they don't. Let's hear it for American exceptionalism!
New York Times Joins The iPad Mini Chants
<a href="http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/03/bloomberg-ipad-mini-coming-in-october/" target="_hplink">Bloomberg </a>and the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/wsj-ipad-mini-launch-coming-soon-144500994.html" target="_hplink"><em>Wall Street Journal</em></a> have both heard that Apple is planning a smaller iPad for launch later this year, and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/technology/apple-may-meet-tablet-competition-with-smaller-ipad.html?pagewanted=all" target="_hplink">now the <em>New York Times</em> is on it</a> with a similar article. A so-called iPad Mini, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/technology/apple-may-meet-tablet-competition-with-smaller-ipad.html?pagewanted=all" target="_hplink">writeth the <em>Times</em></a>, featuring a 7.85-inch display and costing "significantly less" than the $499 starting price for the 10-inch iPad, is "expected to be announced this year." This aligns with the Bloomberg and <em>WSJ </em>reports and lends more credence to an upcoming iPad Mini launch, still not a definite; though the <em>Times </em>doesn't give a price, we've been hearing for months that one could go for between $249 and $299, in order to battle $199 tablets Kindle Fire and Nexus 7. Aside from price, the <em>New York Times</em> article leaves another important question unanswered: How will this new iPad Mini <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/nyregion/once-a-staple-awnings-are-losing-their-appeal.html" target="_hplink">affect the popularity of aluminum awnings in Brooklyn</a>? For the love of God, let's get a reporter out to Greenpoint ASAP! That's all for <strong>This Week In Apple Rumors</strong>. Check back next week, when the <em>Times </em>will have an exclusive report on Apple's entrance into the awning market, with a Siri-enabled iAwning planned for release some time in 2013. And if you can't wait a whole week for your Apple rumors, you can get 'em up to the minute by <a href="http://twitter.com/gilbertjasono" target="_hplink">following me on Twitter right here</a>.