WI-2012 President: 49% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (CNN 8/13-14)

CNN/ORC International
8/13-14/12; 920 registered voters; 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
CNN Release

Wisconsin

2012 President
49% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (chart)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[Rocketsfan]

07:53 PM on 08/20/2012

PPP is tweeting today they have Romney/Ryan up 1 in Wisconsin. Looks like Ras is not an outlier and there is significant differences between LV and RV polls currently.

[docboss83]

12:37 PM on 08/18/2012

Ras has Obama up +2 in the tracking poll today. Interesting considering Romney was +4 early in the week. I guess Americans are learning more about Paul Ryan's extremist views.

[nrebreg]

02:06 PM on 08/18/2012

Interesting that Romney saw a bit of a bounce both nationally and in the battleground states early in the week. Now, we are seeing Obama not only wipe out the bounce nationally, but actually in a better position than before Ryan was added to the ticket. It makes you wonder if they redid the battleground states, if we'd similar movement. Without the daily tracking of battlegrounds like we see nationally, it'll be slower to see if they trend as the national tracking polls have. Of course, there has been very little movement, period, during this race, so both the Ryan bounce plus the subsequent wipeout + additional gains for Obama might all be statistical noise. If that's the case, there was no change, which would seem to favor Obama every so slightly.

[PunchingDonkey]

09:37 AM on 08/19/2012

Obama + 2 continues today, and Rass specifies that Obama is up 10 nationally among independents. Only by his silly party weighting does Mitt even come close. Sorry McBain.

[runrunrun4fun]

12:29 PM on 08/17/2012

I know the two polls were conducted by different pollsters, but how would WI end up with a +4 lead for Obama (D), yet a +11 for Thompson (R). Bad polling, or a LOT of Republicans voting for Obama?

[StatsNo1fan]

12:32 PM on 08/17/2012

Is that the only possible explanation?

You've got to try harder, runrun.

[runrunrun4fun]

12:34 PM on 08/17/2012

It's the only explanation, Stats.   You should know better than anyone that the only explanation that matters to you is the one you think is the only explanation. 

[ashenthorn]

09:25 AM on 08/17/2012

Remarkable:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/17/us/politics/pursuing-the-elusive-swing-voter.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper

"the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election"

This confirms the wisdom of both Romney's selection of Ryan, and many of the President's own campaign tactics. Obama's main problem is that his own base is less than fully enthused about his record of first term accomplishments. His record on economic stimulus, healthcare reform, ending the wars, gay rights, etc. is regarded by the democratic base as either the bare minimum expected of a democrat (DADT repeal, ending Iraq war but not Afghanistan) or consisting of half measures (recovery act & a health care reform law that covers more people, but left the hated for-profit health insurance system in place with no other option). There is not much room for large swings in the polling and we shouldn't expect it.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

07:44 AM on 08/17/2012

Well as I have been saying about the Purple Strategy polls and I think this holds true for Rass as well, the only way to actually get correct data is to involve cell phones. And in Wisconsin because they have registration at the polls, I am not sure an LV screen would be any better for the repubs, it seems like more young people would be not registered and we all know they overwhelmingly vote dem.

[StatsNo1fan]

09:32 PM on 08/16/2012

Silver ranked CNN as the second least accurate pollster in 2010.

Let's see what Marquette has to say about this. I think they really got WI figured out, and I am sure they'll release a poll within a few days.

[stillow1]

11:29 PM on 08/16/2012

You said PPP was polling WI too, aren't you curious to see their results?

[StatsNo1fan]

11:58 PM on 08/16/2012

No!

[StatsNo1fan]

11:58 PM on 08/16/2012

Maybe a little

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

07:46 AM on 08/17/2012

I love how hypocritical the three stooges of the right are! A dem points to research from Nate Silver and all we get is flak, but if it supports your argument then well by all means go ahead.

[stillow1]

11:08 AM on 08/17/2012

stats can correct me if I am wrong, but i beleive he routinely finds Silver's analysis credible for the most part.

[Briansfunpage]

07:25 PM on 08/16/2012

Democrats are still happy Romney didn't go with a VP pick from Ohio, Virginia, or Florida.

[Xenobion]

07:18 PM on 08/16/2012

To quote Tag Team, "Whoomp! There it is!"

[Field Marshall]

06:14 PM on 08/16/2012

Looks like the sample is D+2. 34% D, 32% R, 33% I.

[stillow1]

06:39 PM on 08/16/2012

In 2008 CNN had turnout in WI at D+6....but I beelive Gallup has tracked a steady decline in WI D party affiliation since then....in any event, WI really is a tossup if you move to an LV screen...and keep in mind, the WI GOP have one of the best ground games in the country and the article notes that the GOPes theyhave interviewed are very excited about building off the momentum from the Walker win and showing up in November.

[Field Marshall]

06:46 PM on 08/16/2012

In 2004, R's outnumbered D's by almost 2 points. In 2010, Gallup found people who identified themselves as D down by 4 points and R's up by 2 to a D+2 split. (Note, this is not who showed up at the polls Nov 2010, this is total party ID. In the actual election, it was R+1 according to the exit poll.)

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

06:05 PM on 08/16/2012

It does indicate Ryan has had an effect in his own state, but not enough. Polls before he became Romney's running mate had Obama up by 5-6 points.

[Field Marshall]

06:00 PM on 08/16/2012

Confirms the Ras poll from earlier today. O+4 on an RV screen. R/R up 2 among indies. Also have some more headroom in their own party at 93% while O's at 96%.

[A New Jersey Farmer]

05:52 PM on 08/16/2012

Also an RV poll. If LV polls favor Republicans, then this might be closer.

[nrebreg]

05:51 PM on 08/16/2012

Nothing to get too excited about here for Obama, unfortunately. This isn't a likely voting pool; it's not even a registered voting pool. It appears to be "adults". Gulp. Still, I expect Obama still leads narrowly in Wisconsin and is likely to win it come November. If he does not win Wisconsin, it won't matter, anyway, as we are likely headed for a Romney landslide (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire are likely to fall to Romney before Wisconsin; well, at least a good chunk of those).

One good poll out for Obama today: Mitchell has him up 5 in Michigan.

[gbshabo]

06:21 PM on 08/16/2012

It's a registered voters, not all adults.

[nrebreg]

07:37 PM on 08/16/2012

Excellent. Thanks for clarifying!

[Field Marshall]

06:33 PM on 08/16/2012

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120815/MIVIEW/208150476

[gbshabo]

05:44 PM on 08/16/2012

Here we have the first poll based upon live interviews. It finds Obama up by 4. The last two polls based upon live interviews in Wisconsin (prior to Ryan) had Obama up by 5 and 6 points respectively. Yes I think Ryan has had a positive affect in Wisconsin. Just not much of one.

[stillow1]

06:36 PM on 08/16/2012

I actually haven't looked, but i would not be surprised if automated polling is more accurate than live interviews....that owuld be interesting to research.