Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.
Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.
To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
The professors' model shows a very different picture than what current data suggests. Currently, The Huffington Post's Election Dashboard shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney's 191 with only six "tossup" states including: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn't mean it will work this time. "As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.
According to current data from The Huffington Post Election Dashboard, there are at least 13 states that are either dead heats or within a handful of percentage points in either direction.
Currently HuffPost's Pollster, tracking 403 national polls, estimates Obama leading the tight race nationally with 46.3 percent to Romney's 45.2 percent.
This kind of Electoral College model developed by the Bickers and Berry is the only only one of its kind to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions -- both national unemployment rates as well as per capita income, according to a press release about the study from University of Colorado. Research suggested that voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
"The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent," Berry said. To which Bickers added, "The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."
Paul Ryan: QE2 Risks Inflation
Back in 2010, Republican Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan explained that the Federal Reserves plan to purchase $600 billion worth of securities -- known as QE2 -- was little more than "sugar-high economics" that <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/romney-ryan-see-fed-qe-as-inflation-risk-amid-low-prices.html" target="_hplink">risked rising inflation and weakening the dollar</a>. But instead the opposite took place. According to Bloomberg: <blockquote>"Since that prediction by Ryan, who has been chosen by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to be his running mate, the dollar has risen against major currencies and inflation has stayed below the Fed's goal of 2 percent."</blockquote>
Christina Romer: Unemployment Will Remain Below 8%
In early January of 2009, Christina Romer, economic adviser to then President-elect Barack Obama, made a prediction: massive government stimulus on the order that would eventually be passed by Congress would keep unemployment below 8 percent, reports <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/10/AR2009011001999.html" target="_hplink"><em>The Washington Post</em></a>. Without it, unemployment could reach as high as 9 percent. In July 2012, unemployment edged up to <a href="www.bls.gov" target="_hplink">8.3 percent</a>. It has not gone below 8 percent since <a href="http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=us+unemployment+rate#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:US&ifdim=country&tstart=984805200000&tend=1337227200000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false" target="_hplink">January 2009</a>.
Jim Cramer: Obamacare Will Topple The Stock Market
On <a href="http://mediamatters.org/blog/2010/03/22/dow-finishes-up-following-health-care-vote-pagi/162074" target="_hplink">March 18, 2010</a>, Jim Kramer stated on Larry Kudlow's program that Obamacare would tank the stock market. The reform package was, in his words, "the single greatest impediment to the stock market going higher." On March 23 of that year, according to <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20000981-503544.html" target="_hplink">CBS News</a>, President Obama signed health care reform into law. Following Yahoo's tracking of the Dow Jones, the market on April 1 2010 was at 10,927. On August 17, over two years later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was pegged at <a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA" target="_hplink">13,264</a>. Granted, the market could still take a nose dive. But odds are it won't be because of health care reform.
Michelle Bachmann: Obama Taking 'The Final Leap To Socialism'
In a radio interview Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann gave with Bill Bennet in March of 2009, the Minnesotan claimed that Obama's policies were representing the "final leap into socialism," <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2009/03/05/36590/buchmann-thwart-obama/" target="_hplink">Think Progress</a> reported. But alas, while Bachmann's sensational claim may have gotten her into the spotlight, the government has been engaged in selling its stake in the industries that it had to temporarily prop up. General Motors, an automaker that the U.S. government had to prop up with emergency capital, bought back all preferred shares held by the U.S. Treasury as of December 2010, reports <a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/g-m-buys-back-2-1-billion-preferred-shares/" target="_hplink"><em>The New York Times</em></a>. Wall Street's largest banks that have frequently brought about wrath from liberals such as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/opinion/18krugman.html?_r=1&ref=paulkrugman" target="_hplink">Paul Krugman,</a> like Citi, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, are still privately run.
Glenn Beck: U.S. Will Go Through 'Great Depression Times 100' (Or Hyperinflation)
In early 2010, then-Fox News commentator Glenn Beck said that the U.S. was likely in for a "Great Depression Times 100," reports <a href="http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201001050049" target="_hplink">Media Matters</a>, going on to say that the country would experience a period of hyperinflation. Unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at around 25 percent, according to an article published by <a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/cm20030124ar02p1.htm" target="_hplink">the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>. But even at the worst moments of the Great Recession, unemployment only reached slightly above 10 percent. Presently, it is <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/03/unemployment-rate-jobs-report-bls_n_1736843.html" target="_hplink">at 8.3 percent</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With inflation estimated to remain stagnant at 1.5 percent through 2012, the nightmare warnings of hyperinflation expounded by Beck as well as by renowned "economist" <a href="http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/10/peter-schiff-dollar-hyperinflation-is-coming-unless-policy-direction-is-rapidly-changed/" target="_hplink">Peter Schiff</a> appears to be just that. A nightmare.
Rick Santelli: 'Stagflation Is Almost A Certainty'
In October of 2009, CNBC analyst and Tea Party founder Rick Santelli told said on the show Fast Money that he believed <a href="http://126.96.36.199/id/15840232?video=1287468464&play=1" target="_hplink">"stagflation is almost a certainty."</a> In other words Santelli was predicting that America would go through a period of high inflation and high unemployment. The only question he had was when. In November of that year, <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid0910.pdf" target="_hplink">the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> revealed that between October 2008 and October 2009, prices rose by 1.7 percent not including food and gas. This made, at the time, Santelli's claim even bolder. Even though unemployment is still high -- almost three years later -- inflation has risen far below the Federal Reserves 2 percent annual target, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/romney-ryan-see-fed-qe-as-inflation-risk-amid-low-prices.html" target="_hplink">Bloomberg reports.</a>
Rush Limbaugh: Obamacare Will Leave 250 Million People Uninsured
Among the many predictions conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh has made over the years, the one he made on March 8, 2010 was not one of his best. On his daily radio show <em>The Rush Limbaugh Show</em>, Limbaugh announced to his listeners that healthcare reform, which would be signed into law later that month, would end up leaving 250 million Americans uninsured, <a href="http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201003080025" target="_hplink">Media Matters</a> reported. As of June 2012, 49.9 million Americans do not have health insurance, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/27/politics/btn-health-care/index.html" target="_hplink">CNN estimated</a>.
Mitt Romney: U.S. WIll Default If We Raise Debt Ceiling
In the <a href="http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1106/13/se.02.html" target="_hplink">June 13, 2011 Republican Presidential Debate</a>, Mitt Romney, when asked about the consequences of not raising the debt limit answered the moderator's question with a question. "Well, what happens if we continue to spend time and time again, year and year again more money than we take in?" As Asher Smith pointed out on <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/asher-smith/republican-debate-economy_b_876899.html" target="_hplink"><em>The Huffington Post</em></a>, this can only mean that the U.S. will eventually be unable to pay off its obligations and, as a result, default. Bit as of August 2012, close to one year after the debt ceiling was raised, the U.S. still hasn't defaulted.
Bill Gross: End Of QE2 Would Cause Bond Yields To Go 'Much Higher'
In March of 2011, PIMCO Co-Founder Bill Gross predicted an imminent spike in treasury bond yields following the end of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing program, <a href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/02/gross-warns-qe2s-end-could-sink-markets/" target="_hplink"><em>Fortune's</em> Colin Barr reported</a>. Bond yields, Gross told reporters, were likely to go "higher maybe even much higher" at the end of June 2011 when QE2 ended. The 10-year treasury bond yield has since fallen. Since the 2011, 10-year bond rates have hovered between 2.5 and 1.5 percent, according to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND/chart" target="_hplink">Bloomberg</a>.
Joe Biden: US Out Of Recession In 18 Months (Feb. '09)
In February of 2009, Vice President Joe Biden predicted that the federal stimulus package being implemented by Barack Obama's administration would "literally drop kick us out of this recession," <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/114661-gop-reminds-biden-of-missed-prediction-on-the-recovery" target="_hplink"><em>The Hill</em></a> reported. "This [stimulus] is about getting this out and spent in 18 months to create 3.5 million jobs." Technically, the recession ended during the third fiscal quarter of 2009, <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm" target="_hplink">according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>. But with unemployment hovering around over 8 percent for the last three years, some economists are no longer talking about calling the current economic period a recovery. Brad DeLong, an economist with UC Berkley, told readers on his blog in 2011 that we're now in the midst of a <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/06/the-little-depression.html" target="_hplink">"Little Depression" instead.</a>
Peter Schiff: Inflation At 20 Percent By 2009
Economist Peter Schiff stated that the Federal Reserves monetary policies would lead to 20 percent inflation within one year. The statement, made in October 2008 on <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB9fuIvksLw" target="_hplink">Glenn Beck's former CNN program</a>, was proven wrong. During 2009, <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi" target="_hplink">the U.S. actually experience deflation.</a>
Ron Paul: Beware Of Runaway Inflation
Congressman Ron Paul believed that runaway inflation was "just horrendous" in May 2011, he said during an appearance on <a href="http://www.ronpaul.com/2009-05-12/ron-paul-warns-against-runaway-inflation/" target="_hplink">Fox Business News</a>. <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi" target="_hplink">When Congressman Paul made that statement</a>, inflation was pegged at 3.2 percent and, after peaking at 3.9 percent that October, inflation has steadily fallen to 1.4 percent in July 2012.