OH-2012 President: 50% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (PPP 9/7-9/9)

PPP (D)
9/7/12-9/9/12; 1,072 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

Ohio

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 48% disapprove (chart)

2012 President
50% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (chart)

Comments

[ambigon]

12:55 PM on 09/12/2012

I am curious about something. If Obama ever were to open up a demonstrable, consistent lead in Ohio, would the pundits avoid saying so for fear they would lose their audience? If it is true that Ohio is a must win for the Republicans, might there be some reluctance to add it to the "Leaning Obama" column for fear of ending the suspense of a close election that keep viewers viewing? Just curious. I have no expertise on polling and know the danger of "resting on one's laurels," but I am wondering about this and am curious to see what others think,

[dpearl]

02:23 PM on 09/10/2012

I was called Saturday by an automated phone pollster and found the process interesting. You really have to concentrate to remember "Was it push one for Obama and two for Romney or push one for Romney and two for Obama?" Also, they randomize the order of presentation so you might think you understand the pattern of things because a couple of questions have the Republican as response one and the Democrat as response two but then it happens to switch for the third question.

My point is that commentators on this site seem to ignore what statisticians call "response error" when the response given by a person does not match their true feelings because they misunderstood the question (or perhaps not trying to tell the truth). You shouldn't get excited about a couple of percentage point change in the response of some group in a crosstab when 1) there is greater sampling variability for subgroups and 2) 5-10% of people may be incorrectly identifying themselves in the first place.

Clearly, live interview polls have less response error than automated phone surveys so that is one reason they tend to produce better results. Live interview polls also get a higher percentage of people who answer their calls and that also helps.

I give no credence to theories about PPP, Rasmussen, and other automated phone pollsters purposefully manipulating their data. But that methodology does create problems that should be understood in evaluating the importance of those polls relative to others.

[stillow1]

03:32 PM on 09/10/2012

Everyone understands the sampling error among subgroups...and the error can stem from multiple data points. But we still analyze the sample to apply weight.....and it remains quite fascinating that PPP finds Obama gaining +5 among R voters, but having a significant movement away from him among I's. The two don't add up.

[docboss83]

12:30 PM on 09/10/2012

Already a 7 point convention bounce for Obama in Rasmussen. Does it go higher?

[StatsNo1fan]

12:20 PM on 09/10/2012

Considering this was polled right after DNC, and considering the bounce we're seeing in the national trackers, this, and PP's NC poll are probably pretty accurate at the top lines, even though the internals don't look right..

[Alan Snipes]

11:50 AM on 09/10/2012

What the usual critics of this poll refuse to acknowledge is that the Romney campaign says privately that they are down by high single digits in Ohio.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

11:43 AM on 09/10/2012

it's funny to watch the repubs unravel as everything they have worked for, for the past 4 years, limiting Obama to one turn is about ready to disappear. I guess that is why they are so vocal about how the race looks right now.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

11:42 AM on 09/10/2012

Stillow and FM are in complete de nial about Ohio, nothing internally suggests that Romney can even come close, Ohio has lower unemployment rate than the country at large (mainly due to Obama saving the auto industry), Ohio has an extremly unpopular republican governor, and Ohio has a very large registered Dem advantage.

[Rocketsfan]

10:50 AM on 09/10/2012

Saw this last night. It shocked me they put it out on a weekend. I guess they were really excited about the results. But since I'm in CA it's possible they waited until midnight Eastern time.

Does anyone know if the BO/MR number is LV and the approval is RV or AV? In the past I'm leary of polls where the incumbant is under 50 of approval yet outpaces their approval number in head to head, if it's LV and the other is another metric that makes sense but if it's both LV then it puts the poll into suspect.

[stillow1]

11:14 AM on 09/10/2012

Both appear based on LV........but there is far more that puts PPP polls into the suspect column than just that.

[Rocketsfan]

11:34 AM on 09/10/2012

It appears so by your other posts. I haven't been able to look at the crosstabs.

I would be willing to concede that it may be due to it being a rushed poll but as a pollster I'd rather be right than first.

[Awaiting theIdiocracy]

10:10 AM on 09/10/2012

Ohio has been leaning to Obama except for a few tie polls this whole cycle. So, basically Romney has to fight on here, but a few more polls like this we go from "leans" to "likely" Obama.

[A New Jersey Farmer]

06:33 AM on 09/10/2012

A bit of a DNC bounce incorporated into this one. Wish they'd waited a week. The news reports about this poll will undermine some of the questionable numbers, especially the movement of Republicans to Obama. Saving GM is popular in the state. That might explain it. Should've asked that question instead of the wacky bin Laden one.

[stillow1]

01:46 AM on 09/10/2012

Some more on the PPP comedy tour.....

This poll is O+5, their previous poll was O+3.

This poll has O winning D's by 86/11. Their previous poll had him at 83/13.
This poll has O losing R's 13/83. Their previous poll had him at 10/85.

So he's gained a total of +5 among R's since thier previous poll and a total of +5 among D's since their previous poll. however this poll has him losing Indys 44/46 and i nthe previous poll he was way up at 49/39. he went from +10 to -2 among Indy's at the same time PPP claims he went up among R's? Doe sthat make any sense to anyone? That move among Indy's is quite a significant movement away from obama following the DNC, yet he gains 5 among partisan Republicans?

[docboss83]

02:05 AM on 09/10/2012

I think you are nitpicking. Of course his Dem support would go up after a convention. That isnt surprising. I dont know about the Republican numbers, but someone like President Clinton has large crossover appeal. That speech by itself could have moved a few Republicans. The Independent numbers are a bit wierd, I will admit. But this slight bounce in Ohio mirrors the national tracking polls, so overall the number makes sense.

[Field Marshall]

09:48 AM on 09/10/2012

Dont present facts to the libies.... they need their PPP polls to soothe them to sleep at night.

[runrunrun4fun]

10:34 AM on 09/10/2012

Quite to the contrary Field Mouse. I KNOW this poll is COMPLETELY biased and there's no merit to ANY poll showing an Obama lead. Of course, PPP is "not coming home yet," but we can expect that sometime soon. Romney/Ryan are going to win 538-0.

[TJampel]

12:46 PM on 09/10/2012

Whey not address what Mitt's own internals appear to be showing (see the Politico article I linked to earlier). If PPP is showing a closer race than Romney's own pollsters then maybe PPP is being funded by the Koch brothers.

[docboss83]

01:07 AM on 09/10/2012

President Obama spent two days in Florida and sending President Clinton there next week. They must think its highly winnable.

[stillow1]

11:53 PM on 09/09/2012

Some notes here. O won OH by 4.5 in 2008 and he carried indy's in 2008 by +8. This poll shows Obama up +5, but Romney is actually up +2 with Indy's. In 2008 Mac won 10% of Dems, this poll shows Romney winning 11% of Dems.

So Obama wins in 2008 by 4.5 while losing 10% of his own party and carrying +8 among Indy's. Now he leads by 5 losing 11% of his own party and losing Indy's by 2??? Ok then.

I suppose that wierdness is all coming from PPP's claim that Republicans have fallen in love with Obama. They find O winning 13% of GOP voters....when in 2008 he only won 8% of them.

In their previous poll hwich had Obama +3, they had Obama winning Indy's by 10 in that poll. So Romney has taken the lead over O with Indy's by +2, yet Obama's lead goes up by 2?

Fascinating stuff from PPP as usual.

[docboss83]

12:56 AM on 09/10/2012

Go read the Politico article "Advantage Obama" where two GOP operatives state that Romney's internal polling shows him down "high single digits in Ohio." In other words, 7-9 percent down.

[stillow1]

01:32 AM on 09/10/2012

Hey Doc...already read it....its all rumor until someone gets a copy of the internals...we hear rumors all the time during election season.

Referring to this PPP poll though, does it make any sense to you that PPP would track such a large shift towards Romney among indy voters....yet GOP voters move to Obama? I mean seriously, does that make sense to you?

[Williame123]

11:21 AM on 09/10/2012

The one thing you conservatives persistently ignore is that despite all the unfavorable economic news in the past 4 months Mitt has not be able to open up strong leads in the national polls or even in republican-leaning States like Ohio, Florida and NC. It is pathetic. I continuously hear in conservative media that Obama is a failed president and that he is the reincarnation of Jimmy Carter and everyone knows it and yet there is no major shift by the electorate. What gives?

[TJampel]

11:50 PM on 09/09/2012

NC results just tweeted. Obama leads 49/48%. Obama up just 1 point from last time. Now, of course, if this result were found by other firms it would represent a bounce; so far only PPP is seeing this race as a tie; everyone else has Romney up by a couple of points, on average. Let's see what happens.

[Luiesmom]

11:48 PM on 09/09/2012

It just makes me think that 45% of Ohio voters are on crack

[-iVote-]

12:48 AM on 09/10/2012

No, just the 15% of Republicans who think Mitt Romney is responsible for the bin Laden raid.

[Symanski]

01:02 AM on 09/10/2012

Yeah WTH is *that* about?! More than one in seven republicans think Romney is responsible for OBL's death?! I guess there are some really delusional, low information voters out there- across all political ideologies.

[stillow1]

01:47 AM on 09/10/2012

I saw that. First off PPP is lame for even asking questions like that. But its safe to say about 20% or so of both parties are covered in koolaid stains.