The Mitt Romney campaign circulated a statement Monday from its pollster, Neil Newhouse, conceding that President Barack Obama "has seen a bounce from his convention" in daily tracking polls but urging readers not to "get too worked up about the latest polling."
Newhouse characterized the recent shift to Obama as "a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions" and argued that the "basic structure of the race has not changed significantly":
All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
In a related development, Rich Lowry of the National Review shares a comment from an unnamed Romney adviser who describes as "horses**t" reports that the Romney campaign "knows it's losing and that Ohio is slipping out of reach" in the wake of a weekend automated poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) showing Obama with a 5 percentage point lead in Ohio:
Nobody in Boston thinks we're going to lose. We're in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 [point] bounce. It's going [to] evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We're up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they've been spinning for months now that it's out of reach.
There was a Columbus Post-Dispatch poll last week that had it 45-45.
That's a more accurate picture of the state of the play there than any of the spin. PPP has these polls that just put chum in the water for the media. Sometimes I think there's a conscious effort between the media and Chicago to get Republicans depressed.
A poll tracking model created for HuffPost Pollster by political scientist Simon Jackman, based on all polling at the national and state levels, shows that the conventions have helped boost Obama's share of the vote to his highest levels since early March. The model currently has Obama leading Romney by 3 percentage points.