By Raisa Camargo, VOXXI

The notion that 10 million Hispanics can be deterred from voting in November because of voter laws that are suppressive is a bit of an exaggeration, Latino experts assert.

A civil rights group, Advancement Project, released a report Monday pointing to the potential impact of voter suppression laws and voter purges in 23 states that would affect noncitizens and a majority of Latinos from turning out in November.

Penda Hair, co-director of the Advancement Project, was quoted in several media reports as saying that the suppression laws have the “impact of scaring people and reminding them of [immigration] raids and other kinds of law enforcement that have been targeted toward these communities.”

The types of voter suppression laws and policies analyzed in the report include alleged noncitizen purges of registered voters in 16 states, proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration, which inadvertently target naturalized citizens, and restrictive photo ID laws in 9 states.

The aim of the report is to show the potential impact these laws have on Latino voter turnout. The figure 10 million is half of all Latinos who are eligible voters, which some skeptics say is a bit on the high range estimate.

“It looks at all the states where voter ID laws are in place or purging happening and then they added up all the Latinos in those states and came up with 10 million. So, I think the number is a little bit exaggerated,” said Arturo Vargas of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials.

“In fact, they also included Latinos in states where the law has been put on hold.”

He pointed to examples in Texas with the voter ID law was overturned and Pennsylvania whose law is still working its way through the courts. Vargas added that projections on voter turnout should be reported with caution.

“We know that many people maybe on the fence about whether they should vote or not and if they start hearing stories about how they’re going to be turned away that means that doesn’t help efforts to turn the vote out,” said Vargas.

A statistician who researches Latino voter trends also questioned the report’s credibility pointing to the manner in which the data was classified.

If it were 10 million that would require every state to eliminate every possible Latino who is a naturalized citizen, the statistician told VOXXI on condition of anonymity.

The organization the statistician works for is not allowed to comment on another institution’s report.

Similar questions were brought up by reporters during a press conference call held yesterday by the Advancement Project. A reporter of the Charlotte Observer questioned why a voter ID law that was vetoed last year in North Carolina was included among the states analyzed in the report.

“The reason that North Carolina is included is that it has asked for access to federal state database, which is federal immigration data and specifically to prepare voter rolls. It hasn’t done that yet,” said Kathy Collagen Gonzalez, director of Voter Protection’s Program of the Advancement Project.“We certainly hope that it does not, but it’s a place where we feel Latino voters can be intimidated very close to the election.”

The Brennan Center for Justice, a non-partisan public policy and law institute based at the New York University School of Law, issued their own prognosis in 2011. The center estimated that 5 million Americans would be affected by the voter suppression efforts, but it hasn’t taken into account the recent changes this year including the voter purge rolls.

Myrna Perez, a senior council at the Brennan Center who works on voting rights, wouldn’t comment on the report’s findings. Instead, she cited that there have been several voter purges that have been stopped against non-citizens.

In Florida, she cited that early restrictions were partially lifted and the voter purges in large scale, although there is still another purge lawsuit that is still active. The Brennan Center also litigated cases in Colorado, where the voter purges have also stopped.

In fact, analysts say there isn’t any viable projection than any report can point to in terms of measuring Latino turnout.

The statistician who was quoted earlier gave an estimated guess of 11.5 million of Latinos who would turn out in November because the same engagement placed on Latinos is absent this year to the turnout during the primaries in 2008.

Clarissa Martinez, civic engagement director of National Council of La Raza, is more optimistic.

“Given the growth of the Latino community and the growth of voting participation slowly, but surely we have a ways to go – it’s expressed that between 11.8 and 12.2 million Latinos could participate in this election,” she said.

Vargas is also standing by the projection of 12.2 million voters NALEO provided and indicated they will be releasing their own report on the voter laws and its impact in October. The Southwest Voter Registration Project gave an estimate of 10.5 million.

Angelo Falcon of the National Institute for Latino Policy said these projections are all viable, but they’re at best speculation. He came to the conclusion that although the Advancement Project possibly “overly exaggerated” because the data cited was too general, there is a consensus that the laws will have a serious impact on turnout.

“The Southwest voter people say look we don’t think there’s going to be big Latino turnout therefore we need to get more resources – NALEO want to show the Latino vote is going to very important – everybody has their own reasons for pointing out certain numbers,” said Falcon.

Originally published in VOXXI

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  • Pennsylvania

    You're an average voter in Pennsylvania. The night before Election Day, your wallet goes missing, leaving you without immediate access to any of the identification you'll need to vote at your local precinct the following morning. This would be a problem under <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#PA" target="_hplink">Pennsylvania's proposed photo ID law</a>, since <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/pennsylvania-voter-id-ruling_n_1919187.html" target="_hplink">blocked by a state judge</a>. While many people in this situation may have backup forms of identification, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/05/pennsylvania-voter-id-law_n_1652469.html" target="_hplink">studies have shown</a> that a significant percentage of would-be voters don't. The state's safeguard against the immediate disenfranchisement of people in this situation would be a provisional ballot cast on the day of the election. But this doesn't mean your vote counts, yet. Anyone who casts a provisional ballot is required to "appear in person at the county board of elections" within six days of the vote to provide proof that their ballot was valid. If you're able to take time away from your job to do this, the process still requires a would-be voter to either show up with valid ID -- a replacement driver's license <a href="http://www.dmv.state.pa.us/fees/index.shtml" target="_hplink">would cost $36</a> and considerable time -- or to sign an affirmation that you are indigent and not able to afford the fees associated with acquiring a photo ID. Even if you make a rapid and somewhat expensive turnaround to get a replacement ID -- or alternatively swear under oath that you are too poor to pay for such a document -- there is no guarantee that your vote will end up counting. Many elections are largely decided before provisional voters have a chance to verify their validity, which could serve to discouraging them from following up with election officials or leave them effectively disenfranchised. In 2008, <a href="http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/Documents/2008 Election Administration and Voting Survey EAVS Report.pdf" target="_hplink">only 61.8 percent</a> of all provisional ballots cast were fully counted. If strict photo ID measures were implemented, however, the number of provisional ballots submitted would likely increase, as would the requirements for voters hoping to make them count. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Georgia

    Eleven percent of eligible voters say they lack current government-issued photo IDs, a <a href="http://www.brennancenter.org/page/-/d/download_file_39242.pdf" target="_hplink">survey</a> on the potential impact of voter ID laws found. You live in Georgia and you're one of them. Like 66,515 other Georgians, according to a <a href="http://brennan.3cdn.net/773c569439b50452e0_kzm6bo5l6.pdf" target="_hplink">recent study</a> from the Brennan Center for Justice, you also lack vehicle access and live more than 10 miles from an office that issues state ID. As a registered voter who's skipped the past few elections, you decide you'll vote this year. But you spend your life working multiple jobs to provide for your family, not tuned in to a news cycle that may have told you about a voter ID law that changed the requirements. If you were aware of the measure, you'd know that you have to get yourself to a state office during business hours to procure a photo ID in order to vote. According to the Brennan Center, these facilities are often only open part time, especially in areas with the highest concentration of people of color and in poverty. While the state does offer a free photo ID initiative, the Brennan Center points out that many of the offices provide confusing or inaccurate information about what Georgians need to do to get one. This may be a tough task as you juggle a strenuous work schedule with other commitments -- and that's assuming you're aware of the requirement. But you're not, so you head to your voting precinct on election day with no access to an acceptable form of identification and vote with a provisional ballot. To <a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/gaphotoid/3679BasicVotingInfo_printer final.pdf" target="_hplink">verify that ballot</a>, you'll have two days to present appropriate photo ID at your county registrar's office, which at this point wouldn't be doable. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Tennessee

    As an elderly Tennessee resident, you've made a decades-long Election Day habit of traveling to your local polling place and exercising your franchise. It's an important day for you, and it gives you the rare opportunity to leave your house, where you live alone. For a number of years, you've had an identification card that allows you to vote. But thanks to the state's strict new voter ID law, that document will no longer be sufficient. Reports <a href="http://www.wbir.com/news/article/185824/2/Tennessee-voter-ID-law-awaits-effect-on-seniors" target="_hplink">found</a> that 230,000 Tennesseans older than 60 possess driver's licenses that don't have photos on them. Such ID will not be accepted at polling places in November. While the state has agreed to issue photo IDs free to anyone who asks, a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/tennessee-voter-id-law-program_n_1669323.html" target="_hplink">recent study</a> found that only a tiny percentage of potential targets have applied. Perhaps that's because people like you weren't aware of exactly how the change was going to affect them. Maybe you weren't even aware of the change. Poll workers tell you that you can cast a provisional ballot on Election Day. You'll <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#tn" target="_hplink">have until</a> "the close of business on the second business day after the election" to find an applicable piece of identification -- which you don't have -- and present it to a designated elections official. Whether it's your lack of an acceptable form of identification, the difficulty in finding transportation back to the elections official, or the prospect of having to go through the drain of the entire process again, you're discouraged, and give up. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Kansas

    You're a resident of Kansas in your early 60s, fully expecting to vote in November. Your driver's license is your primary form of ID, but you rarely carry it anymore. You don't drive and you haven't traveled abroad in years, leaving your passport expired or lost. In the months before the election, you changed addresses, and for some reason never received a notification from the state reminding you that your license had expired. On the day of the election, you head to your polling place, unaware that you're about to be told your license is expired and therefore invalid according to the state's new voter ID law (Kansans over the age of 65 can use expired IDs, but you're not there yet). You're given a provisional ballot and informed that <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#Kansas" target="_hplink">you must</a> now "provide a valid form of identification to the county election officer in person or provide a copy by mail or electronic means before the meeting of the county board of canvassers." While Kansas says it has <a href="http://www.wycokck.org/Internet2010ElectionBanner.aspx?menu_id=1092&banner=27765&id=26946" target="_hplink">historically counted</a> around 70 percent of its provisional ballots, this year provides a different landscape. The next steps can be somewhat difficult, and with the enacting of the state's photo ID law, the use of such ballots will undoubtedly become more commonplace. Faced with disenfranchisement, you must now race against the clock to have your vote included. With no other acceptable forms of ID available, you go about the process of renewing your license. <a href="http://www.ksrevenue.org/renewingdl.html" target="_hplink">According to the state</a>, this requires you to make your way to a state office, where you'll have to provide a number of identifying documents and pay the fee. By the time you can find someone to chauffeur you through this process -- public transportation is complex and unreliable where you live, <a href="http://www.kansas.com/2012/07/24/2418365/voter-id-law-burdens-wichita.html" target="_hplink">even if you're in an urban center</a> -- most of the major election results have been announced on the news. You decide the undertaking isn't worth the time. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Indiana

    You're a first-time voter in Indiana who <a href="https://forms.in.gov/Download.aspx?id=9341" target="_hplink">registered to vote</a> at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles using your Social Security number, a process that also <a href="http://www.in.gov/bmv/2339.htm" target="_hplink">required you</a> to get a state identification card, which you placed in your wallet. As a recent high school graduate who commutes with other workers to your full time job on a farm, you rarely need to present identification, so you didn't even bother to get a new ID card when it went missing from your locker a few weeks before the election. You risk potential firing when you travel to your polling place with other members of your community on voting day, but you're intent on participating in your first election. Without valid photo ID, however, you don't get to pull the lever. Under Indiana's new photo ID law, you're instead required to fill out a provisional ballot. But you're told you'll still need to jump through additional hoops that could prove too demanding. Now tasked with making visits during business hours to both the Indiana BMV to <a href="http://www.dmv.com/in/indiana/drivers-license-replacement" target="_hplink">get a replacement ID</a>, and then to the <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#in" target="_hplink">county elections board</a> to verify your ballot, you decide keeping your job is more important than voting. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Pennsylvania, Part II

    Viviette Applewhite was the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Pennsylvania's new voter ID measure. She's a 93-year-old great-great grandmother who has voted regularly for decades. She claimed she didn't have access to any of the documents she'd need to vote. With no driver's license and no birth certificate, needed to get a photo ID, Applewhite said she'd be disenfranchised by the law. And she wasn't the only one. A <a href="http://www.aclupa.org/legal/legaldocket/applewhiteetalvcommonwealt/voteridclients.htm" target="_hplink">number of other plantiffs in the ACLU case</a> against Pennsylvania's photo ID law claimed they had been unsuccessful in attempts to get copies of their birth certificates and other papers due to complexities in the state's record-keeping. Most claimed the measure would take away their vote. The law has since been blocked for this election cycle.

  • Georgia, Part II

    You're a longtime resident of Georgia, but you've just recently returned home from a six-month out-of-town assignment from your job. You get into town on the Monday before Election Day. Most of your possessions are still being shipped from halfway across the country. Old friends invite you to a bar to catch up, but in the process of removing your driver's license from your wallet to present to a bouncer, it cracks in half, leaving it officially invalidated. Without a valid license, you won't be able to cast a ballot the next day. You'd renew it and choke down the $20 or more fee <a href="http://www.dmv.org/ga-georgia/id-cards.php#Replacing-an-ID-Card-" target="_hplink">for the replacement</a>, but the documents you need to present are in the moving truck. An election official informs you that you can fill out a provision ballot on Election Day. To <a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/gaphotoid/3679BasicVotingInfo_printer final.pdf" target="_hplink">verify that ballot</a>, you'll have two days afterward to present appropriate photo ID at your county registrar's office. Either you're telling the moving company to drive twice the speed limit for the next 48 hours straight, or you're accepting your disenfranchisement. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>