With a little less than a month until the election, one pollster says the race in three battleground states is over for President Barack Obama.
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red," David Paleologos, the president of Suffolk University Political Research Center told Fox host Bill O'Reilly on Tuesday. "We’re not polling any of those states again. We're focusing on the remaining states.”
Facing limited resources, outlets are selective in their polling, and some argue that other swing states such as Ohio, Nevada and Iowa might prove better election predictors.
In an email to The Huffington Post, Paleologos said it was an issue of prioritization. "With just 5 statewide polls left in 3 1/2 weeks, the choice of which states to poll is always shifting," he wrote. "As of last night, there were at least five other states that we felt we must poll, many of which have higher head-to-head numbers (49 percent) for Barack Obama and which are more critical to deciding the national election."
While such calculations aren't rare, it's more unusual to publicly write-off closely fought states before an election. Paleologos' initial comments came as a surprise to other pollsters active in those states.
"I think he’s totally wrong about Obama’s prospects in those states, particularly Florida and Virginia, and I just think it’s really strange you’d go on national TV and make those declarations without having fresh polling in hand showing Romney ahead in those states," said Tom Jensen, director of the democratic firm Public Policy Polling. "But nuance doesn’t count for much on primetime cable ..."
Doug Usher, the director of a swing state poll conducted by public affairs firm Purple Strategies, said stopping polls in those states was "counterintuitive."
"Those three states are clearly still in play," Usher said. "We're not sure how much more polling that we are going to do this cycle, just because it's a cost question for us, but if we were, we would absolutely be polling all three ... So, I just don't know what factors he takes into account that would lead him to believe that they're unwinnable for Obama."
Paleologos said that Obama has consistently polled at 47 percent of the vote in the three states, making a win for him "not impossible, but highly improbable," especially in North Carolina. The state, which Obama carried in 2008, is currently trending red, and several pollsters agree that it's one of the strongest battleground states for Romney.
But Kenneth Fernandez, director of the North Carolina-based Elon University Poll, cautioned against making any quick decisions. "We’ve seen the lead changes in North Carolina a dozen times and results have almost always been within the margin of error. I don’t think you will see many well-funded polling organizations pulling out of North Carolina, Florida, or Virginia," he said.
Fernandez noted that pollsters with limited time and money might choose to focus on different states, but "it seems premature to make a methodological decision based on a single campaign event and poll change," he said.
Fernandez pointed to 1948, when Gallup stopped polling two weeks before the election and predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman. "When you make such a decision with incomplete information, you are increasing your chances of being wrong, very wrong."
Other polling outlets said they would continue surveys in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Roanoke College plans more polling in Virginia, and the Marist Institute, which conducts polling for NBC and The Wall Street Journal, also will keep polling in all three states.
Paleologos said he would consider resuming polling in Florida or Virginia if other outlets showed Obama winning 49 percent or more of the vote. "[W]e would certainly revisit, if time and resources allow," he said. "However, we have to make decisions about the numbers immediately before us, as much planning takes place for each poll."
Mark Blumenthal contributed reporting.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.