POLITICS
11/02/2012 11:17 am ET Updated Jan 23, 2014

11/2/12 Pollster Open Thread

This open thread is to discuss all of the day's polls -- what they tell us about the election, their methodological strengths and weaknesses, notable findings others have missed or whatever else you want to talk about. Each day's open thread will appear in the morning and remain open for 24 hours. We also encourage you to use the "favorite" button to identify the most interesting or insightful comments.

Thursday featured comments

"Rasmussen's polls have the best Romney result in every swing state except for Florida and Nevada, where they are only 0.1 less than the best Romney poll (Gravis beats them in both states). Let's assume for a moment that Ramussen is correct, the rest of the polls are missing something, and Ras' model is correct. This is what America would look like on Nov 7:
- Romney wins a 2-pt national popular vote victory.
- Romney wins 285 electoral votes to Obama's 243, with Wisconsin too close to call, having won NC/FL/VA/NH/OH/IA/CO and losing only Nevada among "swing states".
- Republicans retain the House and have an R+3 congressional win nationwide.
- Democrats retain control of the Senate by winning in MO/PA/OH/VA/FL/CT plus the indy in ME.
- Republicans net gain 1 seat after winning in NV/AZ/NE/ND/IN/WI.
- Montana is pending a recount, so the Senate is either 52-48 Dems or 51-49 Dems.
This is where the race is right now according to Rasmussen." - SergeantSuj

"Alternative paths for each candidate if the other wins Ohio.
Obama: The obvious one would be his path out west that put him over the top in 2008:
WI (RCP +3.7%) IA (+2%) NV(+2.7%) NH(+1.3%) and CO(+0.6%). Alternative paths involving some of the above go through VA (RCP -0.5%) and FL(-1.3%)
Now Romney: almost any winning map must encompass NC(+3.8%) FL (+1.3%) VA (+0.5%) and CO (-0.6%). That takes him to 257. His easiest path without Ohio involves NH(-1.3%) IA (-2%) and NV(-2.7%) or WI (-3.7%). Alternatively, a win in one of these states would do it: MN(-5%) PA(-4.6%) or MI (-3%). He has one or two other options, but without Ohio he has to take at least one state where no non partisan polling has shown him to be in the lead. Obama could still win by winning all the states he's leading in bar Ohio, or by scraping a win in Florida or Virginia. Looking at the demographics of Romney's backup states, he'd have to win an additional midwestern state, whereas Obama could have a strong showing with hispanics (FL/CO) or a large black turnout + big win in NoVA and still get to 270. It would be tough, and he'd probably still lose, but if Romney loses OH it there's no way back from there."- cwpiper

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