RICHMOND, Va. -- Virginia Republicans did not have a lot to cheer about on Election Day when it came to the presidential election and the race for U.S. Senate.
But they should cheer up. After all, the Virginia Curse augurs well for GOP chances in 2013.
What's that -- never heard of the Curse? Well, it goes something like this:
Since 1976, Virginians have followed each presidential election by electing a governor of the opposing party a year later.
Pundits have tried to explain it, and politicians can't deny it.
Republican George W. Bush was elected president in 2000 and Virginians elected Democrat Mark R. Warner governor in 2001. Bush was re-elected in 2004. Virginians elected Democrat Timothy M. Kaine governor in 2005.
Democrat Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008. In 2009, Virginians elected Republican Bob McDonnell governor.
So, Obama's re-election would appear to give an edge to Virginia Republicans attempting to hold on to the Executive Mansion next year.
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are vying for the Republican nomination, which the party will decide in a convention next year. But neither is ready to count on the Curse in 2013.
"The effect on Virginia's governor race will depend on what goes on in Washington and people's reaction to it," Cuccinelli said.
"It will take some time to unfold. We're going to focus on growing the economy and creating jobs regardless of what's going on in Washington," he said.
Bolling spokeswoman Taylor Thornley spun the issue of a curse into a question of the candidate, not the party.
"We're not inclined to put much stock into that," she said. "We think it all depends on whether we nominate an electable candidate for governor," she said, reprising a Bolling talking point that he has a broader appeal to independents and moderates in a general election than the higher-profile attorney general, a tea party favorite.
Democrat Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman turned green-energy entrepreneur who on Thursday declared his candidacy for governor, would appear to be on the wrong side of history when it comes to the Curse.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato doesn't believe in curses. "I don't believe in ghosts either," he said. "But I do think there are historical tendencies that can apply, and this is one of them.
Sabato said there could be a natural "give-back, or kickback or bounce-back" that comes after a presidential election followed by an off-year election, and Virginia and New Jersey are the only states to elect a governor following a presidential election year.
In January 2009, Kaine, then Virginia's governor, said he regarded Republican McDonnell as the favorite to succeed him, citing the Curse.
"I used to think that was a coincidence," Kaine said, but he had decided that it reflects "buyer's remorse."
Presidents usually lose seats in the midterm elections, he noted.
jnoan@timesdispatch.com (804) 649-6061 ___
(c)2012 the Richmond Times-Dispatch (Richmond, Va.)
Visit the Richmond Times-Dispatch (Richmond, Va.) at www.timesdispatch.com
Distributed by MCT Information Services
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.