Most Americans don’t like the IRS, most Virginians don’t know anything about their candidates for governor, and AAPOR kicks off in Boston. This is the HuffPost Pollster update for Thursday, May 16, 2013.
IRS FAVORABILITY IS DEEP IN THE RED HuffPost’s Emily Swanson: “Following news that the IRS subjected conservative and tea party groups applying for tax exempt status to additional scrutiny, most Americans now have a negative opinion of the agency, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll. According to the new poll, 59 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the IRS, while 21 percent said they have a favorable opinion. Another 20 percent said they weren't sure. The survey found that most Americans have heard at least a little bit about the IRS unfairly scrutinizing conservative groups, but that few are paying close attention.” [HuffPost]
MCAULIFFE LEADS IN VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL POLL HuffPost: “Democrat Terry McAuliffe holds a 5-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia gubernatorial race, according to a poll released Thursday. The Quinnipiac poll finds McAuliffe ahead by 43 percent to 38 percent among registered voters -- the best numbers he's had since January. Two surveys released earlier this month found Cuccinelli winning among a narrower subset of Virginia voters, those considered likely to turn out on Election Day. The NBC/Marist poll put McAuliffe ahead 2 points among registered voters, but Cuccinelli leading by 3 points among likely voters. The Washington Post found Cuccinelli leading by 5 points among all voters and 10 points among likely voters.” [HuffPost]
GOP poll finds Cuccinnelli ahead - Republican firm Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United: “Republican Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the race for governor of Virginia. Cuccinelli leads by a 44% to 36% margin. The poll includes 800 likely voters, which is an important distinction from a Quinnipiac poll of registered voters, also released today, which showed McAuliffe with a small lead. ” [Wenzel]
A reminder from National Journal’s Steven Shepard on the group’s track record:
THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to more news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-A PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters finds Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent. [Scribd]
-Carroll Doherty notes: "Mistake to overstate public awareness of press-related issues. In both 2007 and 1986, 55% knew term 'news leak.'" [Pew, via Twitter]
-Sean Trende looks at Republicans’ redistricting advantage in the House [Real Clear Politics]
-Harry Enten says Millennials aren't overwhelming the electorate, but just replacing the highly Democratic Greatest Generation. [The Guardian]
-Nate Cohn questions the Census findings on black turnout. [The New Republic]
-Same-sex civil unions, once favored as a “middle way” by moderates, now appeals mostly to conservatives. [The Monkey Cage]
-Simon Jackman talks “Democracy and the Data Revolution” at TEDx [Simon Jackman]
-Consumer economic outlook is the highest it’s been in five months [Bloomberg, via Langer Research]
-Larry Sabato examines interstate migration’s effects on Virginia. [University of Virginia]